（1） IDC 数据显示，2023 年中国加速服务器市场规模达到94 亿美元（同比增长104%），预计2028年将达124 亿美元（2023-2028 年CAGR 为5.7%）；我们认为，随着国内芯片产业链的国产化进程的推进以及AI 需求从训练向推理的转移，国产GPU 的供应端将持续向好；同时运营商、互联网两大客户的capex 也有望向AI 倾斜，25 年或将成为国产GPU 放量的元年；（2）公司DCU 属于GPGPU 的一种，采用“类 CUDA”通用并行计算架构，具备强大的计算能力、高速并行数据处理能力、良好的软件生态环境三大优势，支持主流深度学习框架与主流应用软件，可实现 GPT、LLaMa 等为代表的大模型的全面应用，与国内包括文心一言、通义千问等大模型全面适配，达到国内领先水平；我们看好公司深算三号为代表的全新一代DCU，预期将在互联网等客户中放量。The company is a leader in the national team of high-end processors and is moving towards autonomous iteration.
The company's largest shareholder is Zhongke Shuguang, which is backed by the Computing Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The technology originated from AMD. The products include high-end general-purpose processor CPUs and coprocessor DCUs, which can be applied to computing and storage devices such as servers and workstations. The company continues to advance research and development. Currently, it is on the path of independent iteration. Haiguang No. 5 CPU and Shenzhen Computing No. 3 DCU have been successfully developed.
DCU: Generative AI will drive strong domestic GPU supply and demand in 2025. The company's DCU has an ecological compatibility advantage and is expected to exceed expectations in commercial markets such as the Internet.
(1) According to IDC data, China's accelerated server market will reach 9.4 billion US dollars in 2023 (up 104% year on year), and is expected to reach 12.4 billion US dollars in 2028 (CAGR of 5.7% in 2023-2028). We believe that with the advancement of the domestic chip industry chain and the shift of AI demand from training to inference, the supply side of domestic GPUs will continue to improve; at the same time, the capex of operators and Internet customers is also expected to lean towards AI. The year 25 may be the first year of domestic GPU deployment; (2) The company's DCU is a type of GPGPU. It uses a “CUDA-like” general parallel computing architecture, and has the three advantages of strong computing power, high-speed parallel data processing capabilities, and a good software ecosystem. It supports mainstream deep learning frameworks and mainstream application software, and can be fully adapted to large models represented by GPT, LLamA, etc., and reach the leading level in China; we are optimistic about all models represented by Shenzhen Compute No. 3 A new generation of DCU is expected to be deployed among customers such as the Internet.
CPU: Supply is improving, and vigorously moving towards the 300 billion x86 commercial market.
(1) Commercial market: x86 is the current mainstream server CPU architecture, with the best industrial ecosystem support in the industry; according to IDC, x86 based servers account for 88% of the market share in 2023, and China's x86 server market shipments are expected to grow 5.7% in 2024. According to an average price estimate of 0.08 million/unit, China's x86 server market is expected to reach 306 billion yuan in 2024; we believe the company has completed the Xinchuang market Product refinement is expected to expand Internet customers with OEMs, and future commercial CPU usage can be expected; (2) Xinchuang Market: “Document No. 79” requires “replacement and replacement” in 2027. We believe that the overall Xinchuang market will maintain a rapid growth trend in the next two years. The company has an ecological compatibility advantage in the Xinchuang market, and this advantage is expected to be shown among small and medium-sized Xinchuang customers; (3) Supply level: Starting from 2024Q4, the company's cash flow and inventory for prepayments and purchasing products will all increase significantly year-on-year compared to 2024Q2. End They reached 30.90/17/2.455 billion, respectively, +65.36%/110.47%/177.84% YoY, and +8.21%/19.67%/43.67% month-on-month. We believe this represents a marked improvement in the company's upstream supply, and increased stocking also represents the company's optimistic expectations for future demand.
Investment advice.
(1) We believe that Shenzhen Computing No. 3 DCU and Haiguang No. 4 CPUs are expected to gain strength among Internet customers. The 100 billion commercial market has already been opened, and we are optimistic about the company's future development prospects;
(2) The company's 2024-2026 revenue is expected to reach 8.154/11.141/14.513 billion yuan (+35.56%/36.64%/30.27%), and the net profit to mother for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 1.647/2.291/3.023 billion yuan (YoY +30.36%/39.13%/31.97%). According to the closing price on December 3, the corresponding PE is 177.0/127.2/ 96.4, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: insufficient supply of upstream chips, intensification of midstream competition, insufficient effective downstream demand, insufficient product and technical levels, falling short of expectations, product gross margin falling short of expectations, geopolitical risks, etc.
