As the year-end approaches, investors are beginning to anticipate the Santa Claus Rally in the US stock market in December.

The global research team at Bank of America stated in an investor report: "The Santa Claus Rally is real, and it often occurs in the last five trading days of December and the first two days of January."

Looking back at history, data from Bank of America statistics shows that since 1928, the probability of an increase in December has reached 74%, with an average roi of 1.32% for the month.

Moreover, in December of an election year, market statistics indicate that the probability of an increase reaches 83%, with an average roi of 1.51%.

However, when carefully studying the Santa Claus Rally, data shows that the roi in the latter half of the month is usually higher than in the first half.

Bank of America stated: "In December,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$The return rate in the last ten trading days of the month was higher than the first ten days of the month. In the first ten days of December, the average return rate of the S&P 500 Index was only 0.05%, with a 59% probability of increase. In the last ten trading days of December, the probability of the S&P 500 Index rising reached 72%, with an average return rate of 1.17%, showing a stronger performance.

Rise to 6200 by the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the rally in the US stocks at the end of the year will drive the S&P 500 index up by 4% and ultimately close at 6200 points in 2024.

Goldman Sachs managing director Scott Rubner stated in a report to clients that sustained interest from retail investors in stocks and cryptos will boost the stock market higher by the end of the year. Rubner added that as corporate share buybacks accelerate towards year-end, the stock market may continue to rise.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs pointed out that in a typical election year, the stock market rally tends to continue until January of the following year, only starting to fade around January 20th, Inauguration Day. Rubner also wrote in the report that he remains bullish on the US stock market in 2025.

JPMorgan also holds a bullish outlook for the year-end market. Data from JPMorgan's trading department shows that even after experiencing the strongest rebound since the early days of the internet bubble, there is still room for the S&P 500 index to continue rising before year-end.

The bank's derivatives analysts said that the most popular options trading bets that the US stock market benchmark index will reach 6200 to 6300 points this month.

Andrew Tyler, the global market intelligence director, wrote in a report to clients on Monday: "Given the positive macro environment, earnings growth, and the Federal Reserve's continued support for the market, we still hold a strategic call attitude until the end of the year. We believe that taking advantage of market momentum and seeing lower retracement potential before mid-January next year is prudent."

Editor/Rocky