Third-quarter core earnings continued on their YoY uptrend for the 6th sequential quarter but at a slower pace. Consolidated core earnings were up 6.6% YoY in 3Q24, bringing 9M24 growth to 15.5%, contributed by all sectors – except Consumer.

Heavy lifters were Banks, Utilities, Plantation, Property, Oil & Gas, and Aviation (which returned to the black). Gloves too, returned to the black. Misses > beats, but about half were in line The ratio of core earnings misses-to-beats (vs. our forecasts) remained at 1.0x – at 1.7x. About half (49%) of the core earnings reported were in-line, 32% fell short and 19% beat our expectations. Gaming, Gloves, Petrochem, Technology, and Transport generally disappointed, and there were no sectors with earnings that positively surprised. Prominent -ve outliers were Berjaya Food, Capital A, Al-Salam REIT, Hartalega, Solarvest; notable +ve surprises came from Axiata, AMMB and Genting M'sia in the large caps. Growth est. revised: +13% in 2024E, +10.9% in 2025E

Maybank estimates +13% core earnings growth for its coverage and +9.4% for the KLCI in 2024E (previously +14.5% and +12.1%) and +10.9% for its coverage and +9.4% for KLCI in 2025E (vs. +11% and +9.4% respectively). For 2025E, the house  expects almost all sectors to deliver YoY core earnings growth except Port & Logistic. For Consumer (-ve growth in 2024E), the house expects earnings to rebound amid better sentiment from civil service salary hikes and minimum wage increases.

Maybank said it makes no change to its sector calls as it continues to Overweight Banks, Construction, Consumer, Gaming, O&G, REITs, RE, Tech (EMS & Software); and UW Petrochem. The house also refreshed its top BUY list – adding Hartalega and Genting Plant; removing Sime Darby, Gamuda, KPJ and Eco World (due to narrowed upside; these stocks are still BUYs); replacing ATech with VSI, Greatech (D/G-ed to HOLD) with Frontken, Velesto with Bumi Armada.