“‘美国例外主义’的交易正在加速，由特朗普2.0下的‘美国优先’政策潜在回归所驱动”，分析师们指的是特朗普旨在促进美国制造业的一系列提案，如广泛的关税。Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst advises investors to proceed with caution, maintain a reserved attitude towards non-farm data, and believe more in the first and second revisions after collecting more data.
Since Trump's election, the theme of "American exceptionalism" has firmly captured the market and driven the rise of optimism, continuously pushing the s&p 500 index to new highs.
Bank of America analysts said in a report on Tuesday that if the November employment report, released on Friday, is stronger than expected, this theme will continue to boost the stock market.
"The 'American exceptionalism' trade is accelerating, driven by the potential return of the 'America First' policy under Trump 2.0," analysts referred to Trump's series of proposals aimed at promoting US manufacturing, such as extensive tariffs.
Analysts point out that after the election, US stocks outperformed international markets by 3%, while the US dollar rose by 2.9%.
Meanwhile, the three-month correlation between the s&p 500 index and the US dollar has soared to the highest level since 2017, while the correlation of international stocks relative to the US dollar has decreased.
The gap between these two correlations - a sign of the strength of US stocks and the US dollar - has surged to the second highest level in history, second only to the spike after Trump's first election in 2016.
Analysts say these data points mark a shift in market themes towards 'American exceptionalism' trade.
Analysts wrote, "If further rate cuts are ruled out, the internal effective mechanisms of stocks may change. However, in our view, a job report stronger than expected is likely to reinforce the theme of American exceptionalism."
They noted that as the impact of autumn hurricanes and the Boeing strike on job growth gradually fades,Non-farm employmentit could potentially add at least 0.1 million people, while the low response rate in October could also lead to higher revisions.
Bank of America warns that traders should carefully assess these developments.
Analysts say, "For the job report, we advise market participants to proceed with caution, recommend a reserved approach to initial data releases, and have more faith after collecting more data in the first and second revisions."
Economists estimate that there were 0.195 million new job positions added in November, significantly higher than the reading of just 0.012 million in October.
