Chairman of KGI Securities, Zhu Yanmin, pointed out that among mature markets, the slowdown of the usa economy may be more evident than the market estimates. The recovery in the eurozone and the united kingdom is weaker than expected, with growth showing some improvement. It is anticipated that the region will perform worse than the usa next year, but the gap between europe and america is narrowing.

Zhu Yanmin mentioned that the four major policies of usa President Trump include tax cuts, increased tariffs, immigration restrictions, and relaxation of financial regulations, with the order of execution uncertain, which is detrimental to overall inflation. He expects that the start time for immigration restrictions and tariff increases will be earliest. In the first half of the year, volatility will be mainly affected by policy announcements, while times of higher risk in the usa are expected to occur in the second half, and policy changes will determine whether economic improvement can be achieved in the fourth quarter.

He pointed out that the usa's dual targets of employment and inflation are roughly balanced, and core inflation may continue to decline in 2025. However, Trump's increase in tariffs may lead to a rise in inflation for goods and services, and there may be a risk of rising inflation again in 2026.

He continued to state that after two consecutive years driven by the AI boom, stocks in the usa are already not cheap. Future sector rotation will mainly be reflected in improvements in earnings expectations, especially in the financial, commodity, industrial, and medical sectors. KGI expects the upward trend post-election to be maintained in the first quarter of next year, while the second quarter begins to reflect policy risks and expectations of economic downturn, with risks further increasing in the second half of the year. Overall, the first half is expected to outperform the second half. Additionally, the rise in inflation risk in 2025 and the reversal of monetary policy may be unfavorable for bonds investment.

KGI's head of investment strategy, Wen Jie, stated that in terms of asset allocation, due to the determination of global economic and geopolitical factors for next year, investors can pay attention to a strategy abbreviated as "ACE". "A" stands for Alternatives, referring to the deployment of alternative assets to reduce portfolio volatility, with gold being one of the viable options. "C" represents Credit Selection, signifying careful selection of investment grade bonds to enhance potential income in the portfolio. Finally, "E" stands for Elite Stocks, with KGI preferring large stocks, indicating that stocks from the usa and japan may be worth a positive assessment.