According to Zhicheng Finance APP, WTI crude oil futures prices saw their largest increase in over two weeks on Tuesday, primarily due to the USA imposing more stringent sanctions on Iranian oil, and more importantly, Saudi Arabia and Russia led 'OPEC+' making positive progress in reaching an agreement aimed at reducing market oil supply. Media outlets have quoted sources indicating that OPEC+ is close to reaching an agreement to postpone the oil production increase plan by another three months, which is expected to be formally announced at Thursday's meeting; this news has temporarily eased the market's pessimistic expectations of an oversupply in the oil market.

At the close of trade on Tuesday for csi commodity equity index, the North American oil pricing benchmark—WTI crude oil futures price rose by 2.7%, closing at nearly $70 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since November 18. The international oil pricing benchmark—Brent crude oil futures price rose by 2.5% to around $73.7 on Tuesday. On Wednesday during the early session in asia, the optimism surrounding OPEC+'s delayed production increase spread, and both WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices rose slightly.

According to informed sources, some representatives from OPEC+ stated that the oil-producing organization is finalizing an agreement to postpone the oil production recovery plan by another three months. The heads of the organization's energy departments will formally finalize specific capacity plans in an online meeting on Thursday.

Additionally, according to the latest disclosures from the USA government, the US Treasury Department has decided to impose sanctions on 35 entities and vessels for playing a significant role in transporting illegal Iranian oil to foreign markets, subsequently causing crude oil prices to continue their upward trend.

It is worth noting that if the USA elected President Donald Trump decides to reinstate extreme hawk sanctions against Iran overall, it could pose a greater threat to the country's oil production. Since he left office in 2021, overall USA sanctions on Iran have been relaxed, leading to an increase in the country's oil production by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day.

"The trading prices in the oil market in the future will largely depend on the USA's sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, and of course, OPEC's production capacity plans," said Francisco Blanch, head of commodity research at Bank of America, during a media roundtable. Blanch also stated that if production from these two countries continues to decline, Brent crude oil prices could rise to $80 per barrel.

In terms of Middle Eastern geopolitics, the Israel Defense Forces stated that Israel attacked and killed an important liaison between the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Syrian army, which is another significant sign that oil supplies in the Middle East may be at risk. Syria is an ally of Iran and borders the major oil producer Iraq. Over the weekend, anti-government forces took control of Aleppo, leading to an escalation of the Syrian civil war.

In Asia, the highest levels of China plan to set economic targets for 2025 and some stimulus measures at an important meeting next week, which may drive the demand for crude oil as well as diesel, gasoline, and other oil products in this major oil-consuming country.

In Brazil, as one of the main engines for the growth of oil supply in non-OPEC countries, oil production continues to be lackluster. According to data from Brazil's national oil regulatory agency, oil production has decreased by about 6% from last month and by 8% from the same period last year.

Nevertheless, under the trend of persistently weak demand, concerns about 'oversupply' or 'excessive capacity' continue to loom over the entire crude oil futures trading market. Earlier in November, amidst the continuous plummet in Brent crude oil futures prices, OPEC+ postponed plans to increase oil production starting in December, as the market had anticipated.

With OPEC lowering the global oil demand growth forecast for four consecutive months, and the view of '2025 oil oversupply' led by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and major Wall Street firms gradually being accepted by traders, commodity investment institutions are generally deeply pessimistic about the oil price outlook for 2025, especially for Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices. Traders are pricing in expectations of 'oversupply' of oil, which is the core logic behind the continued malaise in trading prices in the oil market since July.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is more pessimistic than OPEC. The IEA stated in its monthly report in November that due to the energy transition leading to sustained low oil demand from demand countries like China, the global oil market will face a surplus of more than 1 million barrels per day next year, thereby buffering the impact of turmoil in the Middle East and other regions on oil prices. The agency predicts that despite the slowdown in demand growth, supply from producing countries like the USA, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day this year and next. Therefore, even if OPEC+ abandons plans to restore production, global supply will still exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day next year.

Research reports released recently by major Wall Street institutions such as bank of america, morgan stanley, and goldman sachs indicate that the entire oil market may shift from a slightly tight supply-demand balance to a potential supply surplus trend as early as the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. In the 2025 market outlook report, bank of america stated that due to a significant increase in oil production from non-OPEC countries, along with some producing countries in OPEC+ possibly refusing to fully implement production cuts and insisting on releasing more supply, the oil market may enter a supply surplus cycle. Bank of america estimates that the average price of brent crude oil for the entire year of 2025 will be approximately $65 per barrel.