Source: Caixin.
Author: Hu Jiarong. During the election year in the United States, what has been the historical performance of the Hong Kong stock market? What is the institution's view of the future trend of the Hong Kong stock market? 2024 is the largest election year in history. According to Time's report, more than 60 countries/regions globally will hold presidential or legislative elections, involving an estimated population of 4 billion. Among them, the upcoming US presidential election on November 4th will be the center of attention globally. Hang Seng Index company pointed out that since 1977, the average performance of US stocks and Hong Kong stocks in the year prior to the election was the best. It is worth noting that in the election year, both markets showed better average performance in years with Democratic presidents. For investors seeking to measure the performance of Hong Kong blue-chip stocks and the possible revaluation of the Hong Kong stock market during the US election period, the Hang Seng Index will be the ideal choice for the Hong Kong stock market index. Since 1977, the average performance of the Hang Seng Index in the US election year and the year after has risen by 14% and 16%, respectively.

Stimulated by the news of the USA sanctioning Iranian petroleum, Brent crude oil futures rose by 2.59% yesterday, and slightly increased again today.

This trend in international oil prices has boosted the performance of Hong Kong petroleum stocks. As of the time of reporting,$PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$、$CNOOC (00883.HK)$、 $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ 、$KUNLUN ENERGY (00135.HK)$Rises of 4.09%, 3.22%, 2.61%, 0.79% respectively.

In terms of news, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a statement announcing sanctions on 35 entities and vessels that play a key role in transporting Iranian petroleum to foreign markets. The statement indicated that petroleum revenue provides resources for the Iranian regime to fund its nuclear programs and develop advanced drones and missiles.

Notably, Goldman Sachs pointed out in a previous report that if Iranian crude oil exports are disrupted, Brent oil prices could rise to the range of $90, depending on whether OPEC can make up for the supply gap.

OPEC+ may continue to delay plans for increased production.

On November 28, OPEC+ announced that the production policy meeting originally scheduled for December 1 would be postponed to December 5. The agenda of this meeting includes whether there is a need to further delay the oil production increase plan set to begin in January. Against the backdrop of geopolitical easing and weak crude oil demand, OPEC+ may continue to postpone the production increase plan. However, the potential for significant increases in us shale oil and offshore crude oil production in South America could affect the effectiveness of OPEC+'s reduction plan.

Everbright pointed out that crude oil has achieved supply-demand rebalancing driven by marginal cost pricing, and in the medium to long term, oil prices are still expected to remain high. Future attention should be closely paid to the direction of us energy policy, changes in crude oil demand expectations, the execution of OPEC+ production increases, and geopolitical situations.

Editor/Jeffy