On December 4th, the csi consumer 360 index sector remained active, with concepts like food, retail, dairy industry, and pre-cooked food collectively surging. As of the time of writing, stocks such as yike foodstuff, weizhixiang, anji foodstuff, tianjin guifaxiang 18th street mahua food, zhongbai holdings group, and yonghui superstores have reached their daily limit.

In terms of news, as the New Year and Spring Festival consumption peak approaches, many regions across the country have launched a new round of consumer voucher distribution activities to activate market vitality and boost consumer confidence.

The potential for consumer spending continues to be released.

From November 27 to 28, a national market operation and consumer promotion work conference was held in peking. The conference emphasized the need to solidly advance the trade-in of old consumer goods for new ones, expand service consumption, cultivate new types of consumption, innovate consumption scenarios, and continuously release consumer potential.

This policy also provides strong support for the development of the csi consumer 360 index sector and conveys the government's firm determination to expand domestic demand and promote consumer spending.

At the same time, as the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones continues to expand, various regions are formulating implementation plans in alignment with central policies.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, by early November, over 30 million people had participated in the replacement program for consumer goods, driving sales exceeding 400 billion yuan.

Currently, various regions and departments across the country are seizing the time window of the year-end consumption peak season to fully unleash policy effects and stimulate market vitality.

For example, at a press conference held by the Guizhou Provincial People's Government on November 28, relevant officials stated that greater efforts will be made to promote the replacement of consumer goods, continuously stimulating consumption vitality. Based on the existing support for 17 categories of household appliances and 12 types of home goods, more high-quality consumer items such as domestic smartphones and tablets will be included in the replacement support range.

Shenzhen is also solidly promoting the replacement program and a series of benefits policies to achieve effective results, which has effectively promoted a steady increase in market sales. Data released by the Shenzhen Statistical Bureau shows that in the first 10 months of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 860 billion yuan, indicating a rebound in the consumer market.

Looking at consumer vouchers, they are a powerful tool for stimulating consumption. Cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hubei have successively issued consumer vouchers using hundreds of millions of yuan in fiscal funds, primarily aimed at supporting sectors like culture, tourism, dining, and lodging.

Guangzhou announced at the press conference for 'Stabilizing Economic Growth and Boosting Consumption' that it will issue 0.1 billion yuan in government dining vouchers titled 'Eating in Guangzhou'; Shanghai will launch the third round of 'Enjoyment in Shanghai' dining vouchers in December, totaling three batches, specifically on December 7, 14, and 28; and Beijing will distribute no less than 0.03 million ice and snow consumption vouchers from November 2024 to April 2025.

It is worth noting that the Ministry of Commerce has also specifically proposed holding consumption month activities in five international consumer centers: Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Chongqing. As major consumer towns in the country, hosting such activities will undoubtedly further drive consumption growth.

Debang Securities analysis believes that in the short term, consumption vouchers serve as a supplementary tool for macroeconomic regulation, released flexibly by local governments in combination with policy measures, which has a direct effect on boosting local consumption and stimulating market vitality, particularly benefiting offline retail, dining, and other previously pressured sectors.

Bullish on the four main lines.

Driven by policy influence, industry insiders believe that the consumer industry is currently in a state of recovery, with major institutions expressing bullish sentiments.

As an important component of the national economy, the food industry has always played a crucial role in promoting consumption and driving economic growth. Recent incremental policies and the effective implementation of existing policies are expected to accelerate consumer recovery.

Wanlian Securities believes that the consumer industry is still in a weak recovery state, but a series of policies have recently been introduced by government departments, which are beneficial for repairing household assets and alleviating liabilities, thus enhancing the consumption capacity of residents, benefiting the pro-cyclical consumer industry. The food and beverage sector, being essential consumer goods, has strong resilience and stable performance. With the recovery of consumer demand and further restoration of investor confidence, the food and beverage industry is expected to welcome a valuation repair trend.

HTSC stated that benefiting from the macroeconomic environment and consumption-boosting policies, the market expectations are likely to gradually progress along the path of economic and income expectation improvement → confidence recovery → consumption demand stimulation → fundamental recovery, with consumption likely to become the core driving force of economic growth in our country again. The csi consumer 360 index sector has entered a configuration window, with bullish expectations on four main lines:

First, the rise of domestic brands, with improvements in domestic product strength in fields such as personal care, home appliances, and pets;
Second, emotional consumption, with the self-indulgence economy rapidly expanding and continuously driving emerging supply in areas such as trendy toys and IP consumption;
Thirdly, a new cost-performance ratio, with rational supply and demand on both sides, the demand for quality-price ratio products is more resilient.
Fourthly, consumer expansion overseas, going overseas has become a necessary topic for consumer enterprises, focusing on brands, culture, and services going abroad.