該行指，豪宅銷情暢旺，可為信置物業入賬帶來驚喜，而股息率約7.5%，資產負債表為淨現金。領展料約8%股息率亦相當吸引，認為市場低估其投資組合的韌性。太古地產股息率約7%，即使香港寫字樓市場受阻，但股息率仍持續上升。而新地股息率較低，僅為5%，但該行仍然看好其資產質素及盈利復甦情況。Fubon analyst Huang Zihao and others published a report, predicting that the property prices in Hong Kong will rise by a single-digit percentage next year, mainly driven by small and medium-sized units in prime locations, while projects in Kai Tak and the New Territories may lag behind due to abundant supply. Due to the strength of the Hong Kong dollar and structural reorganization, the retail trade sales may record a low single-digit decline. As we enter a year of large-scale completions, the office vacancy rate may rise from 13% to between 13% and 17%.
The bank expects the most favorable interest rates in the first quarter of next year to fall to 5%, with mortgage rates expected to drop to 3.25%, lower than the mass residential rental yield of 3.65%, returning to a 'positive interest spread,' where the rental yield is higher than the mortgage rate; next year's rent is expected to remain stable at current levels. In terms of property prices, a drop in mortgage rates by nearly 100 basis points could release approximately 10% of affordability. Due to high inventory in Kai Tak and the New Territories, prices and rents in the area are under pressure, while mass residential properties in core areas are likely to recover first.
The bank prefers companies with attractive dividend yields and stable fundamentals, including SinoLand (00083.HK), Link REIT (00823.HK), SwireProperties (01972.HK), and New World Dev (00016.HK). Relatively bearish on Wharf REIC (01997.HK) and New World Dev (00017.HK). Cheung Kong (01113.HK) and Hang Lung Properties (00101.HK) may reduce dividends per share in the upcoming results announcement, to some extent, within expectations.
The bank points out that luxury residence sales are brisk, which could bring surprises to SinoLand Properties with a dividend yield of approximately 7.5% and a net cash on the balance sheet. Link REIT with an approximately 8% dividend yield is also quite attractive, believing that the market undervalues the resilience of its investment portfolio. SwireProperties has a dividend yield of about 7%, which continues to rise even as Hong Kong's office market faces obstacles. While New World Dev has a lower dividend yield, only 5%, the bank still remains bullish on its asset quality and profit recovery.
