11 月销量同比转正，WEY和坦克品牌表现亮眼。公司11 月销量为12.7 万辆，同环比+3.7%/+9.1%，自5 月以来首次实现同比转正，累计来看，1-11月销量109.8 万辆，同比-1.8%，表现稳健。分拆来看，WEY和坦克品牌表现亮眼，WEY 11 月销量为7,046 辆，同比+145.8%/环比+8.6%，蓝山智驾版于8 月底上市，公司于广州车展发布全场景NOA，高阶智驾上车带动蓝山产品力增强，已连续3 月月销保持在6000-7000 辆水平。11 月坦克重回月销2 万辆级别，同比+8.7%/环比+5.6%。The company's recent situation
The company released sales data for November 2024; the tank brand held a 500Hi4-Z pre-sale press conference.
reviews
Sales improved year over year in November, and WEY and tank brands performed well. The company's sales volume in November was 0.127 million vehicles, +3.7%/+9.1% month-on-month, and achieved year-on-year correction for the first time since May. Cumulatively, January-November sales volume was 1.098 million vehicles, -1.8% YoY, with steady performance. Looking at the spin-off, WEY and the tank brand performed well. WEY sold 7,046 vehicles in November, +145.8%/+8.6% month-on-month. The Blue Mountain Smart Driving Edition was launched at the end of August. The company released a full-scene NOA at the Guangzhou Auto Show. High-end smart driving drives Blue Mountain's product strength to increase, and monthly sales have remained at the level of 6000-7,000 vehicles for 3 consecutive months. In November, tanks returned to the monthly sales level of 0.02 million vehicles, +8.7% YoY /5.6% month-on-month.
Exports remained steady even after the Russian scrap tax was imposed, and the introduction of new models in new regions is expected to continue to grow.
The company's export sales volume in November reached 0.043 million vehicles, +21.7% year-on-year, with a slight decline of -2.8% month-on-month, mainly due to the high base figure brought about by early stock addition during the peak season in October; throughout the year, exports reached 0.411 million vehicles in January-November, and remained high at +45.8% over the same period last year. Starting from October 1, 2024, the scrapping tax rate for Russian vehicles will be increased by 70% to 85% depending on the model, of which the basic amount of the passenger car scrap tax is 0.02 million rubles.
Since the scrapping tax was imposed, demand in the Russian market is still relatively strong. The company raised prices at the same time as the competition, and the sales volume and profit base remained stable. We don't think there is any need to be overly pessimistic about Russian exports. The company's Brazilian factory plans to put 1H25 into production, which we believe is expected to reduce trade protection policy risks; currently, the company mainly sells new energy models in Brazil and Mexico. The fuel model base market is large and profitable. Along with its introduction to the Latin American market, it is expected to contribute to the company's new overseas sales volume.
Off-road diversion, power grading, Hi4-Z hybrid product cycle starts. The Hi4-Z decouples the four-wheel drive and power divider to balance off-road and comfort requirements. The architecture design can increase battery space and improve pure electric battery life. In terms of product positioning, the 500 Hi4-Z tank focuses more on comfort and battery life than other series of the same model. The pre-sale price is 0.3798 million yuan, which is an increase over the Hi4-T series price; under the new architecture, it can accommodate a 59-degree battery, has a pure electric battery life of 200km+, and the zero hundred acceleration reaches 4 seconds, and has stronger performance compared to major competitors.
With the start of the new Hi4-Z product cycle, we believe that the company has formed a gradient product layout for urban SUV/off-road/off-roading. Among them, Hi4-Z mainly complements the company's segmented product sequence in pan-off-road racetracks, which is expected to drive the company to increase its share in the pan-off-road racetrack and stabilize its leading position in the SUV category.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Previously, due to sluggish export chain sentiment and valuation correction, we expect that profit growth in 2025 will be highly certain. The current sector sentiment will turn optimistic, and undervaluation provides layout opportunities. Maintain the 24/25E profit forecast of $13/15.5 billion. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating, the current stock prices of A/H shares correspond to 18x/8x24E and 15x/7x 25E P/E, respectively. Keep the target price of HK$36/HK$19 for A/H shares unchanged, corresponding to 24x/12x 24E and 20x/10x 25E P/E, respectively, with 30%/40% upside compared to the current share price.
risks
Price competition intensified, and overseas sales fell short of expectations.
