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降息有点悬?美联储官员开始对12月指引避而不谈

Is a rate cut a bit uncertain? Federal Reserve officials have started to avoid discussing guidance for December.

Golden10 Data ·  Dec 4 08:15

Except for Waller, most Federal Reserve officials who spoke this week were cautious about December actions...

Federal Reserve officials said on Tuesday that they still believe inflation is heading down towards the 2% target and hinted at supporting further rate cuts. However, no one strongly supports or opposes rate cuts for the next meeting in two weeks.

San Francisco Fed President Daly said, "We must continue to recalibrate policies, which is an issue we will have the opportunity to discuss and debate at the next meeting. I believe we need to maintain an open mindset here."

Chicago Fed President Evans also remained tight-lipped on the possible outcome of the Fed's meeting scheduled for December 17-18. Evans said, "In my view, interest rates will drop significantly over the next year from the current levels, but we hold a meeting every six weeks because the situation is constantly changing."

The remarks of these two officials are broadly in line with those of several policymakers who spoke this week, explicitly stating that they expect the Fed to continue reducing rates next year, but not committing to a cut in December.

Fed officials have been cautious about providing too much guidance on how policy may evolve, especially after Trump's victory last month, as his promises regarding import tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration crackdown may alter the economic outlook for the next few months.

As Daly, Evans, and Fed Governor Quarles, who also spoke on Tuesday, have said, the Fed cannot react to policies that have not yet been enacted. They are all closely monitoring the upcoming data to weigh the decisions to be made.

Over the next two weeks, the US will release several important reports, including the monthly non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday and the November CPI data to be released next Wednesday.

Kudger said, "I believe that the economy is in a good state after making significant progress in recent years to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. The labor market remains strong, and inflation seems to be moving towards our sustainable development target of 2%."

This week, only FED Governor Waller indicated that he is leaning towards cutting interest rates again this month. FED Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at 2:45 a.m. on Thursday Beijing time, which will be his last public speech before the December rate decision meeting.

Financial markets expect a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the FED this month, which would bring the policy rate to a range of 4.25% - 4.50%. They are betting that the FED will cut rates twice more before the end of next year, at a slower pace than FED officials predicted in September. FED officials will update these rate path forecasts at the end of the last policy meeting of the year in two weeks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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