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多位美联储官员释放信号 12月降息预期升温

Several Federal Reserve officials signal that the expectation of a rate cut in December is increasing.

Zhitong Finance ·  Dec 4 07:20

Several Federal Reserve officials have spoken, indicating support for further interest rate cuts as early as this month.

The Zhitong Finance APP noted that several Federal Reserve officials have spoken, indicating support for further interest rate cuts as early as this month. San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that an interest rate cut this month is uncertain but still within the consideration of policymakers.

"To maintain a good economic development, we must continue to adjust policies," Daly said on Tuesday. "Whether in December or a bit later, we will have the opportunity to debate and discuss this issue at the next meeting, but the key is that we must continue to lower policy to adapt to the economy."

Daly's remarks are generally consistent with those of other policymakers who spoke this week, clearly indicating that the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to cut interest rates over the next year, but they did not indicate a commitment to the next interest rate cut later this month.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also stated on Tuesday that he expects interest rates to "significantly decrease from current levels" over the next year.

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler stated that the economy is still in a "good state" and the inflation rate is "sustainably progressing" towards the central bank's 2% target. Kugler stated that she still believes this data is consistent with the inflation rate moving towards the Fed's 2% target, but "the job is not yet complete." She stated that particularly the inflation rate of housing services remains high.

Neither of them explicitly indicated whether they lean towards an interest rate cut later this month.

Among the officials from the Federal Reserve who spoke this week, only Governor Waller indicated he leans towards supporting a rate cut in December. However, he added in his speech on Monday that his decision will depend on more data released before the meeting.

Since September, Federal Reserve officials have lowered interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in two meetings. They will meet again on December 17-18. Several policymakers have expressed support for further rate cuts, but the pace will be slower.

Daly stated that current supply and demand are roughly balanced, inflation is continuing to push forward, and policymakers are committed to bringing inflation down to target levels.

"Interest rates are gradually declining, which is important for families and businesses that need some relief, but there is still a lot of work to do," she said. "This is the most important part: even if we cut rates again, policy will remain restrictive."

Daly indicated that she believes the neutral interest rate (the level that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth) may be "close to 3%." However, considering the degree of uncertainty, she stated that the Federal Reserve should act slowly.

The president of the San Francisco Fed stated, "I think we can take our time and make adjustments as the economy provides us with more information."

Daly is this year's voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee responsible for setting interest rates.

Short-term US Treasury bonds rise.

After several Federal Reserve officials expressed support for a further rate cut as early as this month, short-term Treasury yields are expected to finish low in volatile trading.

The two-year USA Treasury yield briefly fell by 4 basis points to 4.14%, the last decrease was on November 4, after Chicago Fed President Goolsbee's speech, the yield touched an intraday low during afternoon trade in the USA, Goolsbee being the third central bank speaker of the day. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak on Wednesday.

Bond yields across various maturities rebounded from their lows, with most bonds closing higher that day, following a job vacancy indicator that showed a strong labor market, which may make the Fed less willing to cut rates immediately – especially if the November employment report due on Friday confirms this. Previously, the political crisis in south korea briefly reduced demand for safe-haven assets including USA Treasuries.

Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, stated: "It is wise to maintain a range mindset for USA Treasuries before obtaining clearer data trends." He noted that USA Treasury yields are close to 4.5% and valuation is around 4%, making them attractive.

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Traders remain highly uncertain about the outcomes of the Fed's meeting on December 17-18, with Fed officials stating that the results will depend on economic data. The market implies a roughly 65% chance of a rate cut of a quarter percentage point in December, with a reduction of about 80 basis points by the end of next year. The Fed cut rates by half a percentage point in September and by a quarter percentage point last month.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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