South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol abruptly declared a state of emergency, boosting safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds, Japanese yen, and gold, while cryptos on the South Korean exchange plunged. The South Korean parliament quickly passed a resolution to lift the state of emergency, with the Ministry of Finance and the central bank actively working on market rescue measures. After a 2.7% drop to a two-year low, the won’s decline was cut in half, South Korean etfs fell by 1.6%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds turned to increase after hitting a new low in over a month. France is set to vote on dissolving the government as early as Wednesday, with French stocks following European markets upward, although they had previously declined during the day. The Dow Jones, small cap stocks, and semiconductor indices fell, while the China concept index once rose by 1.9%. The yuan hit a new low in a year during the day, and U.S. oil rose nearly 3% testing the $70 mark.
According to CCTV News, political strife in south korea has intensified, with President Yoon Suk-yeol announcing an "emergency martial law" late at night. Safe-haven assets such as gold, yen, and US bonds rose, while the korean won fell by 2.7% against the dollar, reaching a two-year low. Subsequently, due to the swift passage of a resolution to lift martial law by the korean parliament, and the active preparation of market rescue measures by the korean finance ministry and central bank, the won's decline has narrowed by half. US and european bond yields rose and US stocks rebounded in a V-shape. French lawmakers will conduct a vote of no confidence on Wednesday, and it is expected that the Barnier government will collapse. French President Macron then stated that he believes extreme right party member Le Pen and the left will not vote to overthrow the government, leading to a rise in french stocks.
In October, the number of job openings in the USA rebounded and exceeded expectations, supporting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Investors are now focused on Wednesday's release of the "small non-farm" employment report, Powell's speech, and Friday's non-farm employment data.
This year, a voting member, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly, stated that the FOMC still may cut interest rates in December. Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicated that decisions will be made incrementally at each meeting. Next year's voting member, dovish Chicago Federal Reserve President Evans, believes that interest rates should be "significantly lower." Traders currently expect a 70.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December.
In early trading, the turmoil over the korean "martial law" order heightened safe-haven sentiment, placing pressure on US stocks, with the Nasdaq declining as much as 0.3%, the S&P 500 dropping by over 0.2%, and the Dow Jones falling by more than 207 points at its lowest. Following the president's announcement to lift the martial law, the stock market rebounded somewhat, with the S&P and Nasdaq closing near their daily highs, and the Dow's decline narrowing. The Nasdaq, Apple, and Walmart hit new highs again, with the S&P 500 index recording its 55th closing high of the year. After the korean "martial law" turmoil, the korean ETF (EWY) fell over 7% before closing down 1.59%.
- Among the three major US stock indices, only the Dow fell. The S&P 500 index rose by 2.73 points, up 0.05%, closing at 6049.88 points. The Dow, closely tied to the economic cycle, fell by 76.47 points, down 0.17%, closing at 44705.53 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose by 76.96 points, up 0.40%, closing at 19480.91 points. The Nasdaq 100 index rose by 0.31%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology stocks, rose by 0.57%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, more sensitive to economic cycles, fell by 0.73%. The VIX panic index fell by 0.30%, closing at 13.30.
Small cap stocks dropped significantly, the Dow closed down, while the S&P and Nasdaq saw slight increases to new highs.
Most us industry etfs closed lower. The biotechnology index etf fell by 1.22%, the banking etf, regional bank etf, and financial etf dropped by up to 0.88%, the energy etf was roughly flat, while the semiconductor etf rose by over 0.2%, the technology sector etf increased by over 0.3%, the global technology stock index etf went up by more than 0.4%, and the internet stock index etf rose by 0.6%. Among the 11 sectors of the s&p 500 index, utilities, financials, industrials, and real estate sectors fell by at least 0.6%, while the information technology/technology sector increased by over 0.5%, and the telecommunications sector rose by over 1.1%.
- In terms of investment research strategy, Citigroup strategists pointed out that as the s&p 500 index continues to reach new highs, shorts in the us stock market are surrendering. Investor positions in s&p 500 index futures lean heavily toward long positions, with a decrease in shorts. Meanwhile, positions in the euro stoxx 50 index futures are net bearish, and etf outflows have accelerated as investors avoid european stocks due to sluggish economic and corporate profit growth and political instability in france and germany.
The "technology seven sisters" saw more gains than losses. Meta closed up 3.51%. Amazon, which reported on Thanksgiving (including black Friday mall shopping and cyber Monday e-commerce) sales, rose by 1.3%. Apple increased by 1.28%, marking at least three consecutive trading days of closing at historical highs (closing market cap of 3.67 trillion dollars). Nvidia rose by 1.18%, microsoft increased by 0.05%, while google a fell by 0.09%, and tesla dropped by 1.59%, with the Shanghai super factory delivering 0.079 million electric vehicles in November. One of tesla's largest individual shareholders, Liao Kaiyuan, is no longer all in on tesla's stock, and musk's 56 billion dollar compensation plan was once again rejected by a judge.
Chip stocks showed mixed results. The phlx semiconductor index fell by 0.38%. The industry etf SOXX decreased by 0.57%. Nvidia's two-times long etf increased by 2.27%. Taiwan semiconductor rose by 2.31%, micron technology increased by 1.31%, broadcom rose by 0.98%, asml holding increased by 0.93%, arm holdings rose by 0.03%, while kla corp fell by 0.05%. AMD decreased by 0.06%, applied materials fell by 0.06%, qualcomm dropped by 0.28%, marvell technology fell by 0.98%, and intel dropped by 6.1%, as the company is currently seeking a new CEO and is in contact with marvell technology executive Murphy.
AI concept stocks had mixed performances. BigBear.ai rose by 28.64%, C3.ai increased by 1.55%, oracle rose by 0.82%, crowdstrike increased by 0.91%, snowflake rose by 2.04%, palantir increased by 6.88%, while soundhound ai, the ai voice company held by nvidia, fell by 0.78%, dell technologies dropped by 0.22%, bullfrog ai decreased by 2.37%, serve robotics fell by 4.04%, and super micro computer dropped by 4.26%.
- Most china concept stocks rose. The nasdaq golden dragon china index closed up 1.16%. The china technology index etf (CQQQ) closed down 1.07%, the china concept internet index etf (KWEB) closed down 0.1%, and the ftse china 3x bull etf (YINN) closed up 1.29%. The ftse a50 futures index closed down 0.16% in the continuous night session, at 13,339.000 points.
- Among the hot china concept stocks, miniso rose 9.64%. New oriental rose 6.54%, nio rose 5.45%, trip.com rose 4.26%, tiger brokers rose 3.9%, zhihu rose 1.62%, zeekr rose 1.25%, daqo new energy rose 1.07%, vipshop rose 0.87%, netease rose 0.55%, while alibaba fell 0.31%, ideal automotive fell 0.44%, pdd holdings fell 0.54%, baidu fell 0.62%, jd.com fell 0.99%, bilibili fell 3.46%, and fangdd network fell 4.16%.
- Among other key stocks: (1) united states steel fell 8.01%, at one point it dropped about 10%, as trump reiterated his opposition to the japanese steel acquisition of united states steel. (2) psq holdings rose 270.39%, with reports that trump's son will join the company's board of directors. (3) after the 'martial law' incident in south korea, south korean stocks listed in the us had a narrower decline, the south korea etf (EWY) fell 1.59%, falling for five consecutive days, at one point dropping 7% to a new low for 52 weeks, south korean e-commerce coupang adr fell 3.74%, and posco adr fell over 4%.
After the south korean president announced the lifting of martial law, ew (iShares Korea ETF) rebounded strongly from its low, but ultimately closed down.
European stocks continued to rise, with the german stock index closing up more than 0.4%, hitting a historic high for the second consecutive day, closing for the first time above the psychological barrier of 0.02 million points. Investors are concerned about the political turmoil in france, with the french stock market giving back earlier gains and briefly turning negative during the session, ultimately closing up 0.26%.
- The pan-european stoxx 600 index closed up 0.37%, at 515.53 points. The eurozone stoxx 50 index closed up 0.66%. The ftse pan-european top 300 index closed up 0.44%.
- Among individual stocks, samsung electronics' london share price (SMSN.LI) fell 3.71%. Rolls-Royce (RR/.LN) rose 3.21%, with a closing market cap surpassing 50 billion british pounds for the first time in history.
- The Italian FTSE MIB index closed up 1.03%. The German DAX 30 index closed up 0.42%. The French CAC 40 index closed up 0.26%. The UK FTSE 100 index closed up 0.56%. The Spanish IBEX 35 index closed up 1.18%. The Netherlands AEX index closed up 0.26%.
The risk aversion demand caused by the "curfew" turmoil in south korea was short-lived, as bond yields in Europe and the USA hit new daily lows after the south korean president announced a state of emergency, followed by a majority V-shaped rebound. Fed officials' comments elevated expectations for interest rate cuts, and the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by more than 5 basis points at one point.
- U.S. Bonds: At the close, the yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury rose by 4.25 basis points to 4.2323%. After south korean president Yoon Suk-yeol suddenly announced a state of emergency, it refreshed its daily low to 4.1646% at 21:57 Beijing time, a lowest level in more than a month, before rebounding. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury fell by 0.43 basis points to 4.1753%, trading within a range of 4.1898%-4.1423% during the day. The proportion of long positions taken by JPMorgan's U.S. Treasury clients surged to a one-year high.
Due to investors interpreting risks in south korea as a domestic affair rather than an international conflict, U.S. Treasury bonds reversed earlier inflows of safe-haven funds.
- European Bonds: In European trading late in the day, the yield on Germany's 10-year benchmark government bonds in the eurozone rose by 2.0 basis points, ending an eight-day decline, reported at 2.054%. The yield on the two-year German bonds rose by 4.2 basis points to 1.941%. The yield on the UK's 10-year government bonds rose by 3.1 basis points. The yield on the two-year UK bonds rose by 1.6 basis points. The yield on France's 10-year government bonds fell by 1.1 basis points, and Italy's 10-year government bonds yield fell by 2.2 basis points.
The dollar index fell during the night of the "curfew" farce in south korea, with the safe-haven asset yen temporarily breaking above 149, the offshore yuan briefly falling below 7.31 to a one-year low, and the won dropping 2.7% to a two-year low before halving the loss, while bitcoin futures exhibited a V-shaped reversal.
- U.S. Dollar: The USD index DXY fell by 0.11%, reporting at 106.325 points. Following the sudden announcement of "martial law" by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, it fell below 106.100 at 22:38 Beijing time (beginning of U.S. stock market). After 02:00, it repeatedly fell below this level. Bloomberg's dollar index remained roughly flat.
After the news from South Korea was first reported, Bloomberg's dollar index experienced a slight risk-off trend, but subsequently leveled off.
- Non-U.S. Currencies: The euro against the U.S. dollar rose by 0.11% to 1.0510 and refreshed the daily high to 1.0535 at 02:04. The British pound against the U.S. dollar rose by 0.14% to 1.2673, while the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc remained roughly flat at 0.8864. Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar rose by 0.18%, the New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar fell by 0.11%, and the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar rose by 0.16%. The Swedish krona against the U.S. dollar fell by 0.20%, and the Norwegian krone against the U.S. dollar rose by 0.33%.
- Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar remained flat at 149.59 yen, refreshed the daily low to 150.24 yen at 13:03, and started to see a significant rise before 20:30, refreshing the daily high to 148.65 yen at 22:41.
- Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore Renminbi (CNH) against the U.S. dollar fell by 134 points at the end, reporting at 7.2998 yuan, trading within the range of 7.2834-7.3148 yuan for the day. In early Asian trading, it once fell below 7.31, hitting a new low since last November. The onshore Renminbi also fell to its lowest level since last November.
- Cryptocurrency: The largest market cap leader, Bitcoin futures, rose by 0.38% at the end, reporting at 96,900.00 USD. Initially, it fell below 0.094 million USD after the sudden announcement of "martial law" by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. The second largest, Ethereum, fell by 0.19% at the end, reporting at 3,657.50 USD. The South Korean crypto market collectively plunged, with Bitcoin BTC traded on the Upbit exchange dropping by as much as 30% to 0.0665 million USD, and XRP plummeting by 60%.
Reports suggest that OPEC+ may delay its production increase plan for three months until the end of the first quarter next year, and U.S. sanctions against Iran have pushed up oil prices, rising over 2%. U.S. oil surged more than 3% during the session, crossing the 70 USD mark.
- U.S. oil: WTI January crude oil futures closed up $1.84, an increase of 2.70%, settling at $69.94 per barrel. U.S. oil rose more than 3.1% during midday trading, breaking through $70.20.
- Brent oil: Brent February crude oil futures closed up $1.79, an increase of 2.49%, settling at $73.62 per barrel. Brent oil rose more than 2.9% after midday trading, approaching $74.
- Natural gas: U.S. January natural gas futures closed down 5.32%, settling at $3.0420 per million British thermal units.
Geopolitical risk premium has re-emerged, causing crude oil prices to soar, but still below pre-U.S. election levels.
After the South Korean president announced a state of emergency, risk aversion intensified, pushing spot gold to refresh daily highs with an increase of over 0.6%. However, U.S. October JOLTS job openings exceeded expectations, limiting the rise in gold prices.
- Gold: COMEX gold futures for February contracts closed up 0.29%, settling at $2666.10 per ounce. Spot gold rose over 0.6% during early U.S. trading, approaching $2660, and closed up 0.17%, settling at $2643.58 per ounce.
Spot gold initially surged and then fell back, ultimately closing higher.
- Silver: COMEX silver futures for March contract rose by 2.09% at the close, reporting at $31.510 per ounce. Spot silver increased by more than 1.9% after the US market's noon session, approaching $31.10, and closed up 1.71%, reporting at $31.0225 per ounce.
- London industrial metals were generally up, with copper rising over 1.3% and nickel rising over 2%: London copper closed up $119, an increase of more than 1.32%, reporting at $9112 per ton. COMEX copper futures rose by 1.60%, reporting at $4.1965 per pound. London zinc closed up $19, reporting at $3096 per ton. London aluminum closed up $20, reporting at $2610 per ton. London lead closed up $4, reporting at $2080 per ton. London nickel closed up $322, an increase of 2.05%, reporting at $16015 per ton. London tin closed up $251, an increase of about 0.88%, reporting at $28824 per ton. London cobalt remained flat, reporting at $24300 per ton.
The following is updated content before 23:00 Beijing time on the 12th of the month.
The rise in US stocks has temporarily halted, with the Nasdaq turning down after reaching an all-time high, and the S&P falling away from its historical peak.
- All three major US stock indices fell. The S&P 500 Index once fell more than 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is closely tied to the economic cycle, once fell nearly 157 points or 0.4%. The Nasdaq, which mostly consists of technology stocks, initially fell over 0.3% and then rose nearly 0.2%, and is now turning down.
- Industry etfs in the US stock market mostly trended lower in early trading, with the internet index etf falling by over 0.5%, technology industry etf and Penghua Guozheng semiconductor chip etf dropping by over 0.4%, wp csi banks etf and financial industry etf rebounding by over 0.3%, and energy industry etf rising by over 0.6%.
The "tech seven sisters" showed mixed results. Meta rose over 1% at one point, Amazon rose over 0.7%, Apple rose over 0.7%, Google A rose nearly 0.7% before falling nearly 0.4%, Microsoft fell nearly 0.6% before rising over 0.3%, Nvidia rose nearly 1.4% before turning negative, and Tesla fell over 2.1% at one point.
Chip stocks varied in performance. The phlx semiconductor index fell over 0.8% at one point. Intel fell over 4% at one point, on semiconductor fell over 2.7% at one point, Wolfspeed fell over 7.2% at the beginning of the session but narrowed its losses, while micron technology rose over 5% at one point, and marvell technology rose over 1.4% at one point.
AI concept stocks had mixed performances. BigBear.ai rose over 13% at one point, Palantir rose over 6.5% at one point, super micro computer rose over 9.5% at one point, while BullFrog AI rose over 3% before falling over 4.4%, and SoundHound AI, an AI voice company held by Nvidia, fell over 3.7% at one point.
- Most china concept stocks rose. The nasdaq golden dragon china index rose over 1.3% at one point. Among popular china concept stocks, miniso rose over 8.4% at one point, new oriental rose over 6.5% at one point, nio rose over 4.5% at one point, trip.com rose over 4.3% at one point, while bilibili fell over 6% at one point.
- Among other key stocks: (1) In news, after south korea's president yoon suk-yeol suddenly announced a state of emergency late at night, the leader of the largest opposition party, lee jae-myung, called on the public to go to the national assembly to protect it; the ruling party representative, han dong-hoon, stated that the president's announcement of an "emergency martial law" was a mistake. The south korea etf ewY fell over 4% at one point. The korean won to us dollar fell about 2.2% at one point, trading at 1437.18 won. (2) According to media reports, donald trump's son will join the board of directors. Previously, trump reiterated his opposition to japanese steel's acquisition of us steel company. United states steel x fell about 10% at one point.
[The following is updated content before 22:00 Beijing time]
As investors tracked the developments of political unrest in france and prepared for us non-farm data on friday, european stocks rose for the fourth consecutive trading day on tuesday.
European tech stocks rose. ASML rose after maintaining sales expectations. Us stock futures remained stable, us treasury bonds declined, and the dollar changed little. Oil prices climbed, with two OPEC+ meetings scheduled for thursday.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that he is inclined to vote in favor of a rate cut in December. The swap market predicts a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points this month.
- The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose by 0.6%, marking the longest single-day increase since August.
- The S&P 500 index futures were little changed.
- The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 2 basis points to 4.21%.
- The German DAX index broke above 20,000 points for the first time, increasing by more than 0.6% during the day.
- The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose by 1.3%.
- The British pound rose by 0.2% to 1.2686 U.S. dollars.
- The euro against the U.S. dollar increased by 0.1% to 1.0513 U.S. dollars, while the yen against the U.S. dollar fell by 0.2% to 149.96.
- The USD spot index remains relatively unchanged. Spot silver has surpassed $31 per ounce for the first time since November 25, with a daily increase of 1.64%.
- Brent crude oil rose 0.7% to $72.33 per barrel. WTI crude oil futures gained 1% during the day, currently reported at $68.79 per barrel.
- Bitcoin remains unchanged, reported at $95,514.87.
[Updated at 20:42]
PSQ Holdings Inc. soared 106% in pre-market trading, following Trump's announcement to join the board of directors. PSQ Holdings Inc. is a company focused on providing goods and services to conservative and 'patriotic' consumers. It aims to create an alternative market that supports values and ideas distinct from traditional mainstream markets.
[Updated at 17:36]
In pre-market trading, super micro computer rose over 8%, as the company's review found no misconduct and decided to replace the chief financial officer; Tesla dropped over 1%; united states steel fell 6.8%, after Trump reiterated his opposition to Japan's steel acquisition of the united states steel corporation.
The deguodaxzhishu has first broken through 20,000 points, rising more than 0.6% during the day.