美国银行指出，小盘股和低质量股票引领了美国大选后的美股上涨。该行称，今年11月，美股创下了一年来的最好一个月表现。但两种截然不同的资产类别跑赢大盘并引领了这种涨势：低质量股和小盘股。On the evening of the 3rd Beijing time, the US stock market opened on Tuesday with mixed ups and downs. US stock trading enters the end of the year period, with both the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq reaching new historical highs yesterday. This week, the market is focusing on the interest rate path of the USA in November.non-farm payroll dataand the issue of interest rate path with the Federal Reserve.
As of the time of writing, the three major indexes showed mixed results, with the Dow falling 0.19%, the Nasdaq rising 0.03%, and the s&p 500 index dropping 0.09%.
Yesterday, the s&p 500 index and the nasdaq composite index both reached intraday and closing all-time highs.
Bank of America pointed out that small cap stocks and low-quality stocks led the rise of US stocks after the US elections. The bank stated that this November, US stocks achieved their best monthly performance in a year. However, two distinctly different asset classes outperformed the large cap and led this rally: low-quality stocks and small cap stocks.
Former jpmorgan chief stock strategist and Fundstrat Capital chief investment officer Tom Lee predicted on Monday that the s&p 500 index will rise to 6300 points by the end of the year, citing favorable market conditions and historical patterns indicating that stocks will continue to strengthen in December.
Lee emphasized historical precedents, stating, "During the first half of an election year, when the market rises by over 10%, there is a 100% chance of an increase in December." He noted that the 10-year u.s. Treasury yield has fallen to 4.1%, creating favorable conditions for multiple expansions.
Lee's optimistic views extend to the cryptocurrency market, predicting that bitcoin will exceed $0.1 million by the end of the year and could reach $0.25 million by the end of 2025. His forecast for cryptos aligns with recent market momentum, despite recent volatility, as bitcoin's trading price remains around $96,000.
The strategist's target for the s&p 500 index falls between competing forecasts on Wall Street. Bank of America Securities recently predicted that the index will reach 6666 points by the end of 2025, a 10% increase from current levels. The s&p 500 index closed at 6047.15 points on Monday, indicating sustained momentum in the large cap market.
Investors are waiting for the October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) report to be released on Tuesday, which is the first important data this week that, together with other data, can help investors gain insight into the strength of the usa labor market.
The most important economic data this week will be the November Nonfarm Payroll report on Friday.
The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting from December 17 to 18, and the aforementioned data will help the market determine the Fed's interest rate path.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, federal funds futures are currently pricing in a nearly 73% chance of a rate cut by the central bank in December.
CFRA's Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall stated: "Labor market data is very important, but we should not see anything that would overturn investors' expectations that the Fed will again cut rates at the December meeting."
The market is also paying attention to speeches by Federal Reserve officials. On Tuesday, speeches will be given by central bank officials including Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
Fed Governor Waller indicated on Monday that he leans toward another rate cut at the interest rate meeting later this month, although the data released at that time may provide a reason to keep rates unchanged.
He stated: "At present, I tend to support lowering the policy rate at the December meeting. But this decision will depend on whether the data we receive before then unexpectedly improves and changes my inflation path forecast."
The president of the New York Federal Reserve, williams, stated that as the risks of inflation and employment become more balanced, the decision-making body may need to further cut interest rates to adjust the policy rate to a neutral position. However, he did not say whether he would support a rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets this month. He mentioned that related decisions will be made at each meeting.
Williams stated, "I expect that over time, continuing to move towards a more neutral policy setting will be appropriate. The policy path will depend on the data. If there's one thing we've learned over the past five years, it's that the outlook remains highly uncertain."
Focus stocks
Most AI concept stocks rose, with palantir up more than 5%, super micro computer up over 8%, and micron technology up over 4%.
The performance of cryptocurrency concept stocks was mixed, with cleanspark down over 8%, MARA Holdings and microstrategy following suit, while Coinbase rose nearly 2%.
Most china concept stocks rose, with Ctrip up over 3% and NIO up nearly 3%.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Falling more than 1%, a Delaware judge in the USA again rejected Musk's $56 billion record pay plan.
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ Increased by more than 8%, and no misconduct was found in the external review results.
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