风力发电在11月出现动荡，因低风速导致德国、法国和英国风力发电量同比下降52%至21GW。预计12月风力发电量将反弹至38GW，即环比增长80%。然而，由于去年欧洲劲风极多，这一数字仍较2023年12月低6GW。西班牙和意大利也呈现出类似趋势，12月风力发电量总计料将达到10GW，较11月跃增43%。As the wind power generation rebounds from last month's low wind speeds, the electrical utilities market in europe is expected to loosen in December. Last month's low wind speeds prompted an increase in fossil fuel generation to meet electricity demand. Due to permanent demand destruction, winter electricity consumption in germany, france, and the united kingdom is expected to remain sluggish, below last year's levels.
However, as henry hub natural gas prices rise, forward electricity prices have already climbed, reflecting lower temperature forecasts and a decrease in wind power generation compared to the unusually strong winds of 2023.
As winter approaches, total electricity demand in germany, france, and the united kingdom is expected to reach 142GW this month, an increase of 4.3% compared to November. Despite the month-on-month growth, structural demand destruction means consumption is still below the five-year average, with winter electricity demand down 3.5% year-on-year.
Wind power generation experienced turbulence in November, with low wind speeds leading to a year-on-year decrease of 52% to 21GW in wind power generation in germany, france, and the united kingdom. Wind power generation is expected to rebound to 38GW in December, which is an 80% month-on-month increase. However, due to last year's abundance of strong winds in europe, this figure is still 6GW lower than that of December 2023. Spain and italy also show a similar trend, with total wind power generation in December expected to reach 10GW, a jump of 43% from November.
France's average nuclear power generation in December is expected to reach 43GW, with a unit availability of 76%, higher than last year's 69%. This means the total nuclear power generation for the year is expected to reach 351TWh, within the range of 340-360TWh as updated by the unit operator EDF.
In December, the net load in germany, france, and the united kingdom — the share of electricity demand met by fossil fuel generation minus electricity imports — is expected to reach 45GW, a decrease of 29% from November when fossil fuel plants increased output to compensate for insufficient wind power generation. As wind power generation rebounds from the low point, December's net load is expected to fall below the five-year average.
In December, the forward electrical utilities prices in Germany, France, and the united kingdom increased by an average of 9% month-on-month. This reflects a month-on-month increase of 6% in henry hub natural gas prices. Compared to November, the electrical utilities market has loosened, but some tension still exists. France is a highly electrified market, and cold weather prompted a 12% increase in French electrical utilities contract prices in December. Meanwhile, in Germany, due to the expected wind power generation remaining below the highs of 2023, forward electrical utilities prices rose by 9.5%.