Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

$Salesforce (CRM.US)$ Making a big move into the artificial intelligence field, driving the company's stock price to hit a historical high. Now, Wall Street wants to prove that the massive spending is paying off. This customer relationship management software manufacturer will announce its third-quarter performance after the market closes on December 3rd, Eastern Time. Investors are particularly interested in its comments on future artificial intelligence trends.

In October, Salesforce launched the generative artificial intelligence product Agentforce, a tool that can perform tasks such as customer support without human supervision, and the company has been aggressively recruiting to sell this tool. In addition, the company recently acquired the artificial intelligence voice agent developer Tenyx.

Citigroup analyst Tyler Radke wrote: "With lightning-fast marketing/product launches and positive but early partner feedback, Agentforce has sparked a storm." He said that since Salesforce's annual Dreamforce event in September, the company's stock price has risen by about 30%, a result that may be a "real test" for the company.

While artificial intelligence has been a major driver of the stock market on Wall Street over the past two years, the largest revenue growth has been from chip manufacturers like Nvidia (NVDA.US) and cloud computing companies like Microsoft (MSFT.US). Investors are betting that the software industry will be the next major beneficiary, with Salesforce showing a rising momentum. The company has long been focused on technology, with particularly strong optimism about Agentforce.

Eric Clark, Portfolio Manager of the Rational Dynamic Brands Fund, wrote in an email commentary: "We believe the new artificial intelligence suite is one of the most transformative suites we have seen for large enterprises." "When the market sees the adoption rate for the next three years, they will be very excited."

However, he said that the launch and initial use of Salesforce's ai products may be unstable, and he suggested investors take advantage of any stock price fluctuations as buying opportunities. He added that in three years, "once we see revenue, profit margins, and eps growth, the stock will look much cheaper than it does now."

Prior to the announcement of third-quarter performance, the company's stock price experienced a turbulent year. In May, the company released a weak sales growth forecast, highlighting concerns about the company's lag in the ai field, leading to a sharp drop in the company's stock price. Since then, the company's stock price has risen by more than 50%, its latest performance has been well received, and driven by cost cuts, the company's performance guidance has exceeded expectations.

Although the stock price has rebounded, analysts have not significantly raised their expectations. Expectations for the company's net income in 2025 have remained largely unchanged over the past quarter, during which time the management team began discussing new ai tools. Bloomberg compiled data shows that revenue forecasts for the company for the same period have also remained essentially flat.

Stock price increases and static valuations have jointly pushed up Salesforce's valuation. The current expected pe ratio is 30 times, higher than the historical low of 21 times in May. The current stock price is also more expensive than the near 27 times of the nasdaq 100 index.

However, if Salesforce can prove to investors that Agentforce and other ai products will provide strong momentum starting next year, then Salesforce's stock price may continue to rise.

A recent quarterly survey by JPMorgan of Salesforce partners showed positive feedback on this technology. Analysts including Mark Murphy wrote, "Agentforce has attracted customers and highlighted the artistic potential of ai." He added that the product received the highest scores ever among Salesforce products when it first appeared in the survey.

However, Murphy said that expectations for this quarter may be too high. He wrote, "Although Agentforce is a key development, it is unlikely to have a substantial impact on revenue growth in about a year." "When enthusiasm for the ai product cycle is high, some price corrections and fluctuations around earnings releases are not uncommon."

Editor / jayden