2024 年11 月，吉利/极氪/领克分别实现销量19.0/2.7/3.3 万辆，同比分别增长23.8%/106.1%/8.7%，环比分别增长11.7%/7.8%/5.2%。其中，吉利旗下的银河品牌实现销量7.5 万辆（含几何），同比环比分别增长120.6%/18.5%。从能源形式来看，11 月公司实现新能源销量12.2 万辆，同比增长93.9%，环比增长12.6%，新能源渗透率达49.0%，同比提升16.9pct，环比提升1.0pct。其中纯电和插混销量分别为9.1 万辆和3.1 万辆，同比分别增长173.2%和4.8%。occurrences
On December 1, 2024, Geely Auto released its production and sales report for November 2024. The company achieved 0.25 million vehicle sales in November, +27.0% year over year and +10.3% month over month. From January to November 2024, cumulative vehicle sales volume was 1.967 million units, +30.9% year-on-year.
The new car cycle is strong, and all brands are resonating upward
In November 2024, Geely, Kyocrypton, and Lynk & Co achieved sales of 0.19/0.027/0.033 million vehicles respectively, up 23.8%/106.1%/8.7% year-on-year respectively, and 11.7%/7.8%/5.2%, respectively. Among them, Geely's Galaxy brand achieved sales volume of 0.075 million vehicles (including geometry), with year-on-year increases of 120.6%/18.5%, respectively. Looking at the form of energy, in November, the company achieved sales of 0.122 million new energy vehicles, up 93.9% year on year, up 12.6% month on month. The penetration rate of new energy reached 49.0%, up 16.9 pcts year on year, and 1.0 pct month on month. Of these, pure electric and plug-in hybrid sales were 0.091 million units and 31,000 units, respectively, up 173.2% and 4.8% year-on-year, respectively.
The release of Thor EM Super Hybrid is expected to enable plug-in hybrid models to contribute additional volume. On October 30, the company released a new generation of Thor EM-i superhybrid, which is mainly upgraded in the five dimensions of energy efficiency, driving experience, safety, intelligence, and reliability. The Galaxy Starship 7, the first model of the Thor EM-i superelectric hybrid was later released on November 4. The length/width/height and wheelbase are 4740/1905/1685mm and 2755mm respectively. The dimensions are between Song Plus and Song Pro. It is expected to be officially launched on December 6, and is expected to become the company's high-quality supply for the plug-in hybrid car market.
The “Taizhou Declaration” was implemented, Geely's strategic focus and integration accelerated. On September 20, 2024, Geely Holding Group officially released the “Taizhou Declaration”, which includes five major measures to promote corporate strategic transformation. Among them, the purpose of strategic focus and strategic integration is to focus on the main automobile industry, comprehensively sort out Geely's business segments, and clarify the business positioning. On November 14, 2024, Geely Auto announced that after a series of capital operations, ZEEKR held 51% of Lynk & Co's shares, and Geely Auto held 49% of the shares. In addition, Geely Automobile acquired 11.3% of Geely Krypton's shares held by Geely Holdings, and the shareholding ratio of ZEEKR increased from 51.5% to 62.8%. It is expected to further integrate various business lines, reduce competition and internal consumption in the industry, complement brand positioning, and promote cost reduction and efficiency by improving economies of scale.
Investment advice
Benefiting from a good new car cycle, Geely is expected to see both an increase in sales volume and share. We expect the company's total sales volume in 2024-2026 (including ZEEKR and Lynk & Co) to be 2.143/2.782/3.28 million vehicles, with total revenue of 239.03/325.52/395.69 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.9%/36.2%/21.6%, and net profit to mother of 16.41/12.74/16.47 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 209.1%/-22.4%/29.3%, respectively 1.63/1.26/1.64 yuan/share, 3-year CAGR is 45.8%. In view of the company's obvious growth advantage and leading model product cycle advantage, it was given a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Product delivery falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; risk of price increases for upstream raw materials; risk of deviations in sales forecasts.
