Pre-market market trends

1. Pre-market trading on December 3rd (Tuesday), the three major equity index futures in the US all fell. As of the time of publication, Dow Jones Index futures fell by 0.03%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.00%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.07%.

2. As of the time of publication, deguodaxzhishu rose by 0.38%, uk ftse100 index rose by 0.67%, france cac40 index rose by 0.22%, and europe stoxx 50 index rose by 0.44%.

3. As of the time of publication, crude oil product rose by 1.19%, trading at $68.91 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 1.10%, trading at $72.62 per barrel.

Market News

Can the S&P 500 index rise 4% this year? Morgan Stanley predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach a high of 6300 points by the end of the year. Data from JPMorgan's trading department shows that despite the strongest rebound since the early days of the dot-com bubble, there is still room for further gains in the S&P 500 index before the end of the year. The bank's derivatives analyst said that the most popular options trading bet on the US stock market benchmark index reaching 6200 to 6300 points this month, which means that based on Monday's closing price of about 6047 points, it will further rise by about 2.5% to 4% before the end of the year. Global market intelligence director Andrew Tyler said: 'Given the positive macro environment, profit growth, and continued support from the Federal Reserve, we still have a strategic bullish attitude towards the end of the year. We believe it is wise to seize the market momentum and see the potential for a lower pullback by mid-January next year.' Tyler's team recommends a greater emphasis on value and cyclical companies such as banks, auto manufacturers, transportation companies (excluding airlines), and small cap stocks.E-mini Russell 2000 Index In the technology and telecommunications sector, they continue to invest in the so-called 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks, data centers, and semiconductors.

New York University finance professor leads the surging US stocks with the 'Magnificent Seven': Buy the dips. Renowned globally for expanding the financial market valuation system, New York University finance professor Aswath Damodaran stated that during stock market correction periods, it is an excellent time to buy the so-called 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, as most of them will continue to show strong profit growth trends and have rock-solid fundamentals.'As a long-time value investor, I have never seen profit-rich cash machines like these large tech companies, their fundamentals are so strong. And I believe the growth momentum of these cash machines will not weaken.'

Is the rally in US stocks over? 'Fear Indicator': It can still rise! The Volatility Index (VIX) is often referred to as the 'fear gauge' of Wall Street, measuring the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index in the next 30 days. The VIX reached a four-month low at the close last Friday, closing below 14. SentimenTrader's senior research analyst Dean Christians pointed out that this is the first time the index has closed below 14 since it broke through 20 in early August, when the market experienced a brief but sharp pullback. Christians said the last time the VIX fell below 14 after breaking through 20 was in the fall of 2023, after which the S&P 500 index rose 10% in the following three months. He wrote, 'History shows that when the VIX first rises above 20 and then falls below 14, stocks perform well and consistently in the medium and long term.'

'Trumped up' and overvalued the US dollar? UBS warns that after the latest surge driven by Trump, the US dollar is currently in an overextended territory. Analysts at the bank said, 'We warn that the valuation of the dollar seems too high at the current level.' Analysts stated that the dollar dominates in financial markets and international trade, with over 47% of global payments in dollars; in all transactions, the dollar still holds an 88% share, making it the most important currency in terms of liquidity globally. Analysts said, 'Although tensions surrounding the dominant role of the dollar in the global financial system will continue to exist, we do not see any convincing factors that could threaten the dollar's dominant status.' While the outlook for the dollar still looks bright, in the short term, UBS analysts recommend investors to reduce dollar exposure while the dollar is strong.

'Shopping spree' continues! 'Cyber Monday' sales reach new highs. According to Adobe, US shoppers are expected to spend a record $13.5 billion online during 'Cyber Monday,' slightly higher than the company's initial forecast of $13.2 billion. Adobe attributes the strong performance on 'Cyber Monday' to shoppers waiting for the biggest discounts and using buy now, pay later financing to purchase expensive items. Meanwhile, online total sales during 'Black Friday' in the US surpassed $10 billion, an increase of over 10% from last year. Most of the retail sales and profits come from the holiday shopping season. Analysts are closely monitoring this result to understand if lower interest rates and easing inflation are prompting price-sensitive consumers to increase spending.

Individual stock news

Intel (INTC.US) CEO Pat Gelsinger is retiring, analysts are bullish on the transformative opportunities brought by the new leadership. Intel announced that its CEO Pat Gelsinger will retire. This change has drawn wide attention from the investment community. Many analysts believe that this move signals an upcoming "significant transformation" for Intel. Truist analyst William Stein pointed out in a report that although Gelsinger's performance during his tenure was not as strong as the previous CEOs, he did drive some major changes, only that the actions were not swift and far-reaching enough. UBS Group analyst Vijay Rakesh believes that the new leadership may bring a new vision to Intel, although the company still faces many challenges.

Elon Musk's high salary case was rejected by the judge again, Tesla (TSLA.US) plans to appeal. A judge in Delaware ruled on Monday that despite Tesla shareholders voting in June to reinstate CEO Musk's $56 billion compensation plan, Musk still does not have the right to receive this compensation. This ruling was made by Delaware Chancery Court Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick, who had previously ruled in January that Musk's compensation plan was too high and revoked it, surprising investors and casting uncertainty over Musk's future at the world's highest valued car manufacturer. Following the ruling, Musk posted on X platform, "Shareholders should control the company's votes, not judges." Tesla stated in a release, "The ruling is incorrect, and we will appeal," adding that the judge rejected the opinions of the vast majority of shareholders.

Tesla (TSLA.US) year-end targets are approaching, with a further decline in deliveries in China. Tesla's Shanghai factory delivery volume has declined for the second consecutive month in November. Preliminary data released by the China Passenger Car Association on Tuesday showed that Tesla's shipments last month were 78,856 units, down 4.3% year-on-year. However, this number increased by 15.5% compared to October. In the world's largest car market, China, Tesla and local competitors such as BYD and other major brands have provided additional incentives to car buyers, making final efforts to help achieve year-end sales targets. The Chinese market is crucial for Tesla, and its performance in China this quarter will be crucial for ending 2024 with record sales figures. Tesla must sell at least 0.515 million electric vehicles globally in the last three months of 2024 to achieve its guidance of "slight growth" in annual sales, compared to last year's sales of 1.81 million units.

Zscaler (ZS.US) exceeds Q1 revenue expectations and raises full-year performance guidance. The financial report shows that cloud security company Zscaler's first-quarter revenue increased by 26% year-on-year to $0.628 billion, surpassing market expectations of $0.606 billion; adjusted loss per share was $0.08, compared to a loss of $0.23 in the same period last year. The company has raised its revenue outlook for the 2025 fiscal year to $2.62-2.64 billion (previously expected to be $2.6-2.62 billion) and expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to be $2.94-2.99 (previously expected to be $2.81-2.87). However, Zscaler's financial report did not leave a lasting impression on investors, as the company still faces fierce competition from larger competitors in the cybersecurity industry, such as Palo Alto Networks, which announced strong quarterly performance last month. As of the time of publication, Zscaler was down nearly 8% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Major analog chip manufacturer Microchip Technology (MCHP.US) closes a factory to survive and lowers performance outlook. Microchip Technology, a giant in analog chips focused on electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and industrial products, announced the closure of a chip manufacturing factory in Tempe, Arizona, affecting approximately 500 employees. This U.S.-based major analog chip manufacturer also mentioned that the recovery in orders is much slower than expected, adjusting its outlook for the quarter ending in December to close to the lower end of its initial forecast range of $1.03 billion. The company had previously forecasted a sales range of $1.03 billion to $-1.1 billion for the third fiscal quarter.

Important economic data and events notice

At 23:00 Beijing Time, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for October in the United States.

At 01:35 Beijing time the next day, Federal Reserve Governor Kugele will speak on labor market and monetary policy.

At 02:30 Beijing time the next day, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Gulsby will participate in a Q&A session on the Midwest economy and US monetary policy.

At 05:30 Beijing time the next day, the weekly API crude oil inventory change in the US as of November 29th will be reported.

Performance forecast.

Early Wednesday: Salesforce.com (CRM.US).

Pre-market Wednesday: Dollar Tree (DLTR.US), Gaotu Techedu (GOTU.US).