GeoPark Limited (NYSE:GPRK) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 34% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking further back, the 17% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.
Even after such a large jump in price, GeoPark's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 5x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 20x and even P/E's above 36x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
GeoPark hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
How Is GeoPark's Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as GeoPark's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 16%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 14% per year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 11% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it odd that GeoPark is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It looks like most investors are not convinced at all that the company can achieve future growth expectations.
The Key Takeaway
Shares in GeoPark are going to need a lot more upward momentum to get the company's P/E out of its slump. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of GeoPark's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. At least price risks look to be very low, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with GeoPark, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.