问题不在于美国是否会继续超越大多数其他国家。The Master of Queens' College, University of Cambridge, stated that if timely policy actions are taken, the world economy will stabilize in the form of 'mild globalization' reached through negotiations among countries.
This article is written by Mohamed El-Erian, the dean of Queen's College at Cambridge University and an advisor at Allianz.
The global economy in 2025 is destined to be unusual. Market confidence in the outlook for stable economic growth and declining inflation has been shaken, giving way to expectations of various potential outcomes.
The issue is not whether the usa will continue to outperform most other countries. What matters more is the degree of divergence in economic growth and inflation among countries, as well as the extent to which the global economy and financial architecture are damaged. These impacts go far beyond short-term economic well-being.
What we are currently seeing is a rather unusual combination: on one hand, usa economic exceptionalism, and on the other, deeper fractures in the western-dominated global architecture that favors the usa. This is an unstable mix that is derailing due to increasingly intensifying internal contradictions, which will lead to broader global fragmentation in trade, technology, and payment systems while causing a slowdown in growth and increased inflation in the usa and other regions.
An alternative is that if timely policy actions are taken, the world economy could stabilize in a form of "mild globalization" reached through negotiations among countries—rather than in the form of global fragmentation. This could allow economic growth to take root on a deeper foundation, stabilize prices, and address systemic risks.
As the global economy approaches 2025, there has been significant divergence in economic growth and financial markets among economies. Last month, the international monetary fund raised its growth forecast for the usa in 2024 to 2.8%, a figure that may be revised upward again. In the eurozone, growth is stagnating at just 0.8%, and in the emerging markets, even the star economy india faces the risk of failing to achieve the expected growth rate of 7%.
At the policy level, there are hardly any signs that this international situation will change. Economic policymaking in france and germany is hampered by significant political uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the "last mile" work for central banks to achieve low inflation and stable inflation is proving to be challenging, as they are reluctant to decisively change their overly data-dependent reaction patterns for policy-making. In particular, due to the lack of a strategic, forward-looking approach, the Federal Reserve has sent a series of signals of shifting, exacerbating volatility in the bond market. With a lack of reliable forward-looking policy guidance, the debate on whether the Fed should continue, skip, or pause interest rate cuts in December is growing, not to mention what will happen afterward.
All of this is happening just before the new U.S. government is about to take office. For investors, analyzing these issues is particularly complex, as the potential shifts in U.S. trade, immigration, and fiscal policy interact with a range of responses related to corporate pricing, supply and demand elasticity, game theory, and national strategy.
Another question is what kind of long-term changes the economic pressures imposed by Trump will bring — especially the shift of international reserves from the dollar to a diversified basket, and the increasing interest in non-dollar payment systems. This is why Trump issued a warning to the BRICS countries regarding the dollar issue last weekend. Trump wrote, "We need these countries to commit that they will neither create a new BRICS currency nor support any other currency to replace the strong dollar, otherwise, they will face 100% tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to the great American economy."
If it is believed that policymakers have the ability to understand these unusual dynamics and make corresponding adjustments accordingly, including reasonable, mutually beneficial preemptive negotiations with the incoming U.S. government, then questions about this uncertain outlook could be easily answered.
The longer the delay, the greater the obstacles facing existing economic growth and financial stability drivers, and the harder it becomes for exciting future engines of prosperity such as ai and life sciences to take effect. Political leadership, flexibility, and reasonable negotiations can create a path towards a brighter mid-term outlook.
