Jingu Finance News | Huaan Securities released a research report, stating that in Q3, Miniso (09896) achieved revenue of 4.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, basically in line. The adjusted net income was 0.69 billion yuan (up 6.9% year-on-year), slightly below the expected 3.4%; in the third quarter, Miniso added 135 new stores in China compared to the previous quarter, exceeding the consensus expectation of 107 stores; overseas business revenue reached 1.81 billion yuan in the third quarter (up 40% year-on-year), slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 1.4%; overseas direct-operated market revenue increased by 55.4% year-on-year, maintaining a high growth rate; the agency market grew by 26.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate increase of 12.1 percentage points compared to the previous quarter.

The bank pointed out that under the high base of last year, MINISO China's same-store sales dropped by single digits, with the average order price increasing by 0.2% year-on-year and the number of orders decreasing by single digits. According to the guidance from the second-quarter company's earnings conference, the annual domestic same-store sales revenue this year will remain between 98%-102% of last year's level.

The bank stated that the company's Q3 net profit margin was constrained by increased pre-opening costs due to the rapid pace of opening direct-operated markets. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of overseas direct-operated markets in Q4, the peak consumption season overseas. Opening new direct-operated stores overseas incurs pre-costs, so the overseas direct-operated market has to some extent dragged down the overall net income performance. The fourth quarter overseas market will welcome the peak consumption season, along with the heavy Harry Potter IP launch, and it is expected that the direct-operated market will see a significant profit optimization. The bank forecasts the company's revenue for 2024/2025/2026 to be 17.2/20.6/23.2 billion yuan (previously 17/20.5/23.5 billion yuan), with year-on-year growth of +24% / +20% / +13%; the forecasted adjusted net income is 2.8/3.3/3.7 billion yuan (previously 2.8/3.3/3.8 billion yuan), with year-on-year growth of +19%/+17%/+11%, maintaining a "buy" rating.