今年以来，标普500指数已经上涨了26.5%。美国和全球投资者都推动了这一两位数的增长，他们大量购买了与人工智能相关的大型股票。这股AI热潮让少数几家科技公司股价飙升，使得标普500指数的涨幅很大程度上依赖于它们的表现。Wharton School professors said, "Perhaps this time, we will see the hot stocks that have performed exceptionally well in the past two years relatively weak."
Professor Jeremy Siegel from the Wharton School stated that after experiencing two years of heated growth, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$it will be underpowered in 2025.
The Wharton professor outlined a scenario: "I expect 2025 to be a much calmer year. What I mean is, we already had two big bumper years in 2023 and 2024, so I anticipate that the s&p 500 index returns next year will be in the range of 0% to 10%." He added that the leading technology stocks in the market may see "mediocre" returns next year.
So far this year, the s&p 500 index has risen by 26.5%. Both usa and global investors have driven this double-digit growth, heavily buying large stocks related to ai. This ai boom has caused the stock prices of a few tech companies to soar, making the s&p 500 index's gains largely dependent on their performance.
But according to Siegel, the so-called "magnificent seven stocks"—including $Amazon (AMZN.US)$、$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$and $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ The constituent stock companies have started to fall behind.
He said: "Perhaps this time, we will see those high-flying stocks that performed well over the past two years become relatively weak; a third of the s&p 500 index consists of these high-performing stocks, and if they stagnate or fail to grow next year, it will be difficult for the s&p 500 index to replicate the kind of returns seen in 2023 and 2024."
Bank of america believes that technology stocks' trade may be heading towards a cyclical peak, largely depending on future us Treasury yields, as the bank states that rising Treasury yields are likely to limit the growth of risk assets in 2025.
Although technology stocks have been the main catalyst for the s&p 500 this year, Trump's election in recent weeks has further driven sharper increases.
Traders are betting that the incoming president will implement market-friendly policies, which will benefit overlooked assets such as small-cap stocks.
In fact, since the election on November 5, small stocks $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ have risen by 7%, as investors anticipate that domestic companies in the usa will benefit from Trump's promised deregulation and tax cuts.
Siegel said, "Perhaps the 'magnificent seven stocks' will not make any moves next year, while those small and mid-cap stocks that are severely undervalued compared to other stocks will finally have their moment in the sun."
Some market observers are skeptical about whether small-cap stocks can continue to rise. A report from Capital Economics last month noted that small-cap stocks also experienced a similar rise after Trump won the election in 2016, but performed poorly in 2017.
Editor/Rocky
