Jinwu Financial News | According to a research report from Jianyin International, driven by increased seasonal heating demand and reduced inventory days at china power companies, the bank expects thermal coal prices to gradually recover by the end of the fourth quarter. For next year, based on improved economic conditions and nationwide coal production controls, the bank anticipates a moderate increase of 5% in thermal coal prices, reaching 905 yuan per ton. Considering the recent performance of coal prices falling short of expectations, the thermal coal price forecasts for 2024F and 2025F have been adjusted downwards to 865 yuan per ton and 905 yuan per ton, respectively, which is 21% and 25% lower than previous forecasts.

The bank notes that thermal power generation remains the main source of electricity in china. Despite substantial investments in solar and wind power generation, and the improvement in capacity of these two energy sources, as of September 2024, they only account for 33% of china's total generation capacity. Thermal power accounts for about 67% of china's total electricity generation. To ensure a stable electricity supply throughout the year, china has been increasing its new thermal power generation capacity. Looking ahead to 2025, the bank expects thermal power growth to outpace this year’s due to a low base and gradual economic recovery in china. The bank predicts that china's thermal coal demand will grow by 4.9% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 4.4 billion tons.

Assuming that restrictions on coal production in china remain in place, the bank expects china's thermal coal supply to grow by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 10% increase in import volumes. Given the current supply-demand imbalance for thermal coal, approximately 0.14 billion tons of supply gap has been calculated, which is higher than the 77 million tons gap expected in 2024.

The bank continues to note that china shenhua energy (01088) remains its top pick in the sector due to its vertically integrated business model (coal, electricity, and logistics) providing visibility in earnings, an attractive valuation of 8.0 times pe, and approximately 9% dividend yield. The bank is also bullish on china coal energy (01898), as more than 80% of its earnings come from coal mining, believing that china coal energy will directly benefit from the rebound in domestic thermal coal prices, possessing the most attractive valuation in the industry at 5.5 times pe.