Recently, Tesla has launched the 13th version of its driving assistance software FSD to customers. Tesla's autonomous driving engineer, Arek Sredzki, pointed out that the improvements in this update are massive, as the end-to-end network of the system now allows vehicles to transport passengers from one parking spot to another (P2P).
In a retweet of Elluswamy's tweet, Musk directly expressed, 'Great!' He previously mentioned that the FSD V13 version is expected to be over 5 times better than v12.5.5.3. The market also fully appreciates the progress of Tesla's AI team, as Tesla's stock price has rebounded over 7% in the past two trading days.
Tesla plans to gradually roll out this version to more vehicles in the coming weeks, with expectations that by the end of December, most owners will receive the update. Apart from the AI field, Tesla is set to reach several significant milestones in the near future, and any new breakthrough will have a significant impact on the stock price. Futu News has compiled several major events for investors to reference.
Optimus New Design Released
Recently, Tesla has been improving the design of the Optimus robot to address key bottlenecks in the production process. Musk revealed, 'Optimus is already performing some tasks in the factory, and its capabilities are rapidly expanding. The most challenging part currently is improving the design of Optimus to make it easier to manufacture and equip with a complex supply chain for mass production.'
On November 28th local time, Tesla's robot official account released a new update. In the video, Optimus firmly catches and releases a tennis ball thrown towards it, showing relatively flexible finger movements. The dexterous hand is the most notable feature of Tesla's second-generation Optimus.
Tesla's Optimus engineer Milan Kovac referred to the latest demonstration of the dexterous hand as a 'milestone achievement.' According to him, compared to the previous generation product, this new hand/forearm has double the degrees of freedom (22 degrees of freedom in the hand and 3 degrees of freedom in the wrist/forearm). Kovac mentioned that the video was done in real-time in the laboratory through remote operation, and Tesla will soon manufacture robots equipped with the new dexterous hand.
As for the upcoming December, it remains to be seen whether there will be further updates to Optimus's design and how progress in its factory usage is unfolding.
Cybertruck
Starting from mid-August, Tesla has stopped accepting orders for the cheapest version of the electric pickup truck Cybertruck priced at 0.061 million USD, while the higher-priced version at 0.1 million USD can be ordered immediately. Analysts in the industry point out that this adjustment means an overstock of the more expensive version of the Cybertruck and lower demand than expected.
The focus of investors is now on whether the affordable version of the Cybertruck can be reintroduced at the end of the year. In addition, it is worth paying attention to whether the weekly production capacity of the Cybertruck can increase to 2,500 units. Tesla announced at the 2024 annual shareholder meeting that the weekly production capacity of the Cybertruck will be 1,300 units, with plans to increase this number to 2,500 units by the end of the year.
However, a recent piece of news has tempered the market's optimistic expectations. Tesla notified workers on the Cybertruck production line at the Austin factory on Monday to take a three-day break from Tuesday to Thursday. According to the workers on the Cybertruck production line, their schedules have been unstable since late October, with several instances of either being sent home after reporting to work or being asked to undergo additional training or cleaning to fill their work hours. There are signs indicating that the demand for the Cybertruck may have started to weaken.
Q4 Delivery Data and Performance
In order to boost Tesla's full-year sales target for 2024, the deadline for the 5-year 0-interest finance plan for selected models of Model 3 and Model Y has been extended to December 31st. This event, which was launched in July this year, marks Tesla's fifth extension.
In the first three quarters of this year, Tesla delivered a total of 1.294 million vehicles, a 2% year-on-year decline. Musk predicts that Tesla's full-year sales in 2024 will show positive growth, with a target set for the fourth quarter sales: at least 0.51 million units, an increase of 0.03 million units compared to the same period last year. This figure will be unveiled on the 2nd of next month.
Next month, Tesla will announce its Q4 and full-year performance. At the previous Q3 earnings conference, Musk provided expectations for the affordable models, which will also be one of the key focuses of investors next year.
In the third quarter, Tesla's revenue increased by nearly 8% year-on-year, still below expectations, but the surprise profit saw the gross margin rise by 195 basis points to 19.8% year-on-year. The gross margin for its automotive business exceeded expectations, rising to 17.1%; Carbon credits revenue increased by over 30% year-on-year, reaching a quarterly record high; Energy storage business gross margin in the third quarter reached a record high of 30.5%.
Full Self Driving
On September 5, Tesla AI posted on the social media platform "X" stating that Tesla plans to launch what they call "Full Self Driving" advanced driving assistance system in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year.
Several informed sources revealed that the Chinese government supports the pre-testing of some FSD functions, under the premise of complying with existing laws and regulations, but the entry of FSD into China has not yet been approved by regulatory authorities, and the relevant assessments are still ongoing. Musk has applied to the relevant departments hoping to obtain some video data for system training and promised that this data can be rigorously reviewed by the relevant departments. Whether FSD can be successfully implemented in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year will also be a focus of investors' attention.
Stifel's analyst raised Tesla's target price to $411 on Monday, becoming the top bull on Wall Street for Tesla, stating that its AI-based FSD capabilities have "significant" potential, which will drive Musk's Robotaxi dream.
Shanghai Super Energy Storage Factory
The Tesla Energy Super Factory, a project located in Shanghai Lingang New Area, was established on April 9, 2023. The factory will plan to produce Tesla's large-scale commercial energy storage battery (Megapack), with an initial planned annual production of commercial energy storage batteries reaching 0.01 million units and a total energy storage capacity of nearly 40GWh, providing products to the global market. The Tesla Energy Super Factory project is scheduled to start trial production this month and officially start mass production in the first quarter of 2025.
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