小鹏汽车交付能力稳步向上，11 月交付再创新高。2024 年11 月，小鹏汽车共交付新车3.1 万台，同比增长54%，环比增长29%。2024 年1 月-11 月，小鹏汽车累计交付新车共15.3 万台，同比增长26%。其中，小鹏MONA M03 上市3 个月交付连续过万台；小鹏P7+发布23 天，交付量超7,000 台。爆款车型频出保证订单饱满，交付数据有望兑现，小鹏汽车新车周期正式开启。Incidents:
On December 1, 2024, Xiaopeng Motor released November delivery data. In November 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 30,895 new vehicles, an increase of 54% year on year and 29% month on month.
MONA M03 was popular immediately after launch, and P7+ is expected to continue to be popular
Xiaopeng Motor's delivery capacity has been rising steadily, and delivery reached a new high in November. In November 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 0.031 million new vehicles, up 54% year on year and 29% month on month. From January to November 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 0.153 million new vehicles, an increase of 26% over the previous year. Among them, Xiaopeng MONA M03 delivered over 10,000 units continuously in 3 months; Xiaopeng P7+ was released 23 days ago, and the delivery volume exceeded 7,000 units. Popular models are frequently appearing to guarantee full orders, delivery data is expected to be fulfilled, and Xiaopeng Motor's new car cycle has officially started.
All P7+ models are equipped with a new pure vision solution as standard to accelerate smart driving technology equality. In November, the penetration rate of monthly active smart driving users in XNGP urban areas reached 85%. AI Tianji 5.4.0 is officially open beta, bringing users a total of 248 feature updates, covering the four major fields of AI smart driving, AI cockpit, AI chassis, and AI connectivity. Xiaopeng launched an AI Hawkeye vision solution to fully solve problems such as light differences, and debuted on the new Xiaopeng P7+ model in October 2024. The Xiaopeng P7+ will be equipped with end-to-end AI smart driving as standard, with no optional, no subscription, and no payment. On November 15, Xiaopeng Motor successfully completed the first test of the “parking space to parking space” smart driving program, and the end-to-end solution gradually matured. Users can experience the upgrading of intelligent driving capabilities at an accelerated pace, and customer stickiness is expected to increase.
Global strategy is accelerating, and overseas market sales are expected to increase
The global layout is accelerating, and overseas has become another driving force for growth. In November, Xiaopeng Motors officially entered the Nepalese and British markets. As of November 2024, Xiaopeng has listed in the Middle East and North Africa regions, including the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, etc. In the future, Xiaopeng Motor will continue to expand in core regions such as Europe, ASEAN, the Middle East, Latin America, and Oceania, or fulfill overseas sales.
Investment advice
We expect the company's sales volume in 2024/2025/2026 to be 0.19/0.42/0.64 million vehicles, with corresponding revenue of 43.4/92.29/138.28 billion yuan, up 41.5%/112.6%/49.8% year-on-year respectively; net profit to mother of -6.51/0.7/3.42 billion yuan, respectively. The launch of high-quality models is expected to usher in an inflection point in sales. The iterative catalyzation of intelligent driving and the pace of model launch are expected to help the company reverse financial data, cooperate with the public, or further expand the company's revenue and technical capabilities. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The speed of implementation of intelligent and large models falls short of expectations, the impact of the passenger car price war, and overseas market expansion falls short of expectations.
