Source: Caixin.

Author: Liu Rui.

On Monday of this week, Eastern Time, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ 、 $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ it continues to set new highs. Investment banks on Wall Street, including goldman sachs and jpmorgan, predict that in the last month of this year, US stocks are expected to continue rising, with the s&p 500 index likely to set a new high by the end of the year, potentially rising by about 3% to 4%.

Notably, year-to-date, the s&p 500 index has achieved the best performance for the first 11 months since 1997. If the s&p 500 index continues to rise this month, it means that us stocks will have risen more than 20% for two consecutive years—this has only occurred three times in the past century.

US stocks are expected to set new highs by the end of the year.

JPMorgan's derivatives analyst stated that currently, the most popular options trading is betting that the usa s&p 500 will reach 6200-6300 points this month. On Monday, eastern time, the s&p 500 index closed at 6047 points, which means the index is expected to rise about 3%-4% before the end of this year.

Andrew Tyler, head of global market intelligence at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a report: "Considering the positive macro environment, earnings growth, and the fed still supporting the market, we remain tactically bullish until the end of the year."

Tyler's team suggests favoring value and cyclical companies when investing, such as banks, auto manufacturers, transportation companies (excluding airlines), and small cap stocks. $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ In terms of technology stocks, they recommend continuing investment in the so-called "seven giants" technology stocks, datacenters, and semiconductors.

The four weeks in which us stocks have performed best over the years.

In fact, apart from Morgan Stanley, Wall Street strategists are generally optimistic about the prospects for the remainder of this year, as this period towards the end of the year is often a time when US stocks generally strengthen.

Goldman Sachs' trading department estimates that the s&p 500 index will approach 6,300 points before the beginning of 2025, which is in line with the expectations of jpmorgan.

Scott Rubner, managing director of global markets at Goldman Sachs and strategy expert, stated that since 1928, the last two weeks of December and the first two weeks of January are the four weeks with the best performance each year, with an average roi of 2.6% for US stocks during this period.

However, this year is different from usual: the s&p 500 index has already accumulated a 26.78% increase year-to-date, marking the best performance for the first 11 months since 1997. This means the s&p 500 index is expected to achieve an annual increase of over 20% for the second consecutive year — according to deutsche bank's statistics, this would be the fourth time in the past century.

Pressure may arise in mid-January next year.

However, in mid-January next year, ahead of the fourth-quarter earnings season for US stocks and before the inauguration of elected president Trump, US stocks may face some pressure.

Investors in the US stock market may shift their focus to policies such as increasing tariffs, which will bring uncertainty to the economic outlook in the usa. Such concerns have already driven up bond yields, as the market expects Trump's policies to exacerbate inflationary pressures.

However, this has not dampened the bullish sentiment on Wall Street. Predictions from major banks for 2025 show that there is a general expectation for US stocks to continue their upward trend next year: Goldman Sachs, morgan stanley, and bank of america's predictions are around 6,600 points, while deutsche bank even announced the highest target price from mainstream Wall Street investment banks: 7,000 points.

Morgan Stanley analyst Taylor stated that if history is any guide, the current environment faced by the US stock market is very similar to the mid-1990s. At that time, the Federal Reserve achieved a so-called soft landing through monetary policy adjustments without allowing the USA to fall into recession, while also experiencing breakthroughs in the latest technology, which sparked enthusiastic market demand.

Editor/Rocky