渠道空间：聚焦高端商场取得显著成效，未来扩店仍有较大空间。围绕核心人群，公司销售渠道以高端商场为主。截至2024 年4 月，老铺黄金在一线和新一线城市高端购物中心的覆盖率分别为50%和33.3%。近年公司在高端商场的运营取得显著成效，公司在五大购物中心的收入占比从2021 年的35.7%提升至2023 年的39.1%。与国际奢侈品牌相比，在国内和海外市场公司未来仍有较大拓展空间，且公司也有明确扩店规划——未来3 年内预计新增店铺15 家。The first domestic brand to promote the “Ancient French Gold” concept, and its differentiated high-end positioning lays the foundation for success. Laopu Gold was founded in 2009. It is the first brand to promote the “ancient gold” concept, certified by the China Gold Association. It is also the number one brand specializing in ancient Chinese handmade goldware. The company has been growing rapidly in recent years. The CAGR for 2021-23 revenue and net profit to mother was 58.6% and 91.2%, respectively. The founder has experience in commercializing diverse cultural products, and the management has stable cooperation.
Ancient gold has great potential for growth. According to the company's prospectus, the market size of China's ancient gold and jewelry market in 2023 is 157.3 billion, and the CAGR is expected to be 21.8% in 2023-2028, which is faster than ordinary gold jewelry and hard gold jewelry. We believe that in the future, old gold stores can fully enjoy industry dividends with comprehensive and systematic competitive advantages at the level of brand positioning, product innovation, channel marketing to strategic development.
Brand positioning: The high-end positioning, which is deeply involved in the gold field, has made up for the gap in the domestic jewelry market. Old-fashioned gold has filled the gap in high-end domestic gold and jewelry brands, and has become one of the few local high-end gold and jewelry brands recognized by high-net-worth individuals. In terms of pricing models, old stores use a piece-by-piece pricing method, which is clearly distinguished from the traditional pricing model of traditional gold and jewelry brands with price per gram plus processing fee. Along with the continuous rise in gold prices, the dual attributes and operating model of the “gold+high-end brand” of old stores have won the company not only a market for upgrading popular gold consumption, but also a new increase brought about by the increasingly rational consumption of luxury goods in the context of economic deceleration.
Channel space: Focusing on high-end shopping malls has achieved remarkable results, and there is still plenty of room for future store expansion. Focusing on the core population, the company's sales channels are mainly high-end shopping malls. As of April 2024, the coverage rate of established gold stores was 50% and 33.3% in high-end shopping malls in first-tier and first-tier cities, respectively. In recent years, the company's operations in high-end shopping malls have achieved remarkable results. The company's share of revenue in the five major shopping centers increased from 35.7% in 2021 to 39.1% in 2023. Compared with international luxury brands, companies in domestic and overseas markets still have plenty of room to expand in the future, and the company also has clear plans to expand its stores — 15 new stores are expected to be added within the next 3 years.
In addition to opening new stores, the expansion and optimization (location improvement, etc.) of the company's old stores is also a major highlight of channel expansion.
Product competitiveness: Focusing on brand differentiation, the company accelerates differentiation and iteration through independent research and development, ensures product quality through strict quality control, and maintains a continuous leading edge in the field of ancient gold. The company has strong product development capabilities. The founder directly leads the R&D team and participates in the creation process of major products to ensure brand positioning and advanced sensibility. Most of the company's R&D team members have more than 10 years of experience in the industry and continue to launch competitive core specialty products. The company has strict quality control to ensure the high-end positioning of products, and Yueyang's own factory fully guarantees product quality and delivery.
We forecast that the company's earnings per share for 2024-2026 will be 6.93, 9.19, and 11.71 yuan. Referring to comparable companies, the company will be given 22 times PE in 2025, corresponding to a target price of HK$217.14 (1 RMB = HK$1.07), and for the first time, a “gain” rating.
Risk warning: store expansion falls short of expectations, single store revenue falls short of expectations, declining terminal demand, fluctuating gold prices, etc.
