According to the Securities Times APP, Bocom Intl released a research report stating that overall, China's auto exports have shown strong growth momentum since the beginning of this year. Based on the cost-effective advantages of China's independent rbob gasoline car brands, as well as the increasing market share in Central and South America, the Middle East, and Africa, the bank believes that China's rbob gasoline car exports will continue to maintain a growth trend. In terms of electric vehicles, due to policy disturbances in Europe, the export growth rate of electric vehicles from January to October 2024 is weaker than the overall automobile export, but the overall scale is still increasing.

In the future, localized production will become the main global strategy for Chinese car companies to enter the European market. Many car companies have already announced plans to build factories in Europe and have made substantial progress. The bank expects car companies with economies of scale and supply chain advantages like BYD Co., Ltd. (01211) still have a competitive edge, and its factory in Hungary is expected to start production in 2025.

Bocom International's main points are as follows:

In October, China's auto exports reached 0.59 million vehicles, maintaining a good growth trend; auto imports continue to decline.

According to the latest data compiled by Bocom Intl on the Global Automobile Association and China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October 2024, China's auto exports reached 0.59 million vehicles, with a year-on-year/half-on-half increase of +11%/-3%; from January to October 2024, China's auto exports reached 5.28 million vehicles, a 25% year-on-year increase. Due to disturbances from EU policies, electric vehicle exports reached 1.72 million vehicles, a 15% year-on-year increase, lagging behind the overall export growth rate. As for imports, in October, China imported 0.044 million vehicles, a significant year-on-year decrease of 45%, and a 21% decrease from the previous month; from January to October, auto imports reached 0.58 million vehicles, a 9% year-on-year decrease. Japan/Germany/USA remain the top three importers, accounting for 30%/28%/16% of total imports. With the rise of domestic cars and the acceleration of international brand localization, auto imports have continued to remain low in recent years.

In 2024, the Russian market demand has basically recovered to the level of 2021, and China's exports to Russia have performed strongly.

According to the European Business Association (AEB) data, in October 2024, the Russian market sales volume was 0.178 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of +61%; the total sales volume from January to October was 1.24 million vehicles, which is close to the 1.31 million vehicles in the same period of 2021. The bank expects that the sales volume in the Russian market in 2024 will exceed AEB's forecast of 1.45 million vehicles. In October, China exported 0.11 million vehicles to Russia, with a year-on-year/hourly rate of +11%/-26%. From January to October, China exported 0.96 million vehicles to Russia, a year-on-year increase of 30%, accounting for 18% of the total exports, and Russia remains the largest export destination for Chinese autos. Looking at the power types, traditional rbob gasoline vehicles are still the main export to Russia, with China exporting 0.815 million rbob gasoline vehicles to Russia from January to October, accounting for 98% of the total passenger vehicle exports. With the Russian market showing strong growth this year, the overall sales volume has already recovered to the 2021 level, and Chinese autos hold a market share of nearly 60% in Russia. As Russia tightens its parallel import policy, the bank believes that the export growth rate of China to Russia in 2025 should be viewed cautiously.

Exports to the European Union are weakening, but there are signs of easing in China-EU trade friction.

In October, China exported 0.093 million autos to the European Union, a year-on-year decline of 17%; cumulative exports from January to October reached 0.81 million autos, almost flat year-on-year. Compared to the 36% of 2023, this year's export growth to the EU has significantly slowed down, mainly due to higher tariffs imposed by the EU on electric vehicles imported from China. Recently, according to Reuters, Bernd Lange, the Chairman of the European Parliament's International Trade Committee, revealed in an interview with a German television station that the EU is close to reaching a solution with China on canceling the additional import tariffs on electric vehicles. The bank sees both China and the EU taking a more positive stance on resolving the issue of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and expects this trade friction to turn a corner in 2025.