#MiddleEastCrisis #GoldTechnical analysis#24K99 News On Monday (December 2), the price of gold experienced severe fluctuations, with the price closing regaining most of the lost ground during the day, around $2,640 per ounce. Analysts pointed out that Trump's tariff threat remarks and strong U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI data stimulated the dollar to strengthen, which is detrimental to the gold price, but the tension in the Middle East provided support for the gold price.

Spot gold hit a low of $2,621.66 per ounce in the early Asian session on Monday, then sharply rebounded. During the New York session, the price once touched $2,651.80 per ounce, reaching the intraday high.

As of the close on Monday, spot gold fell by 0.45%, to $2,638.61 per ounce.

FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia pointed out that due to Trump's tariff threats against BRICS countries, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose, causing gold prices to fall on Monday.

Trump urged BRICS countries not to try to replace the dollar, threatening to impose a 100% tariff if they resist.

Trump's remarks have raised concerns in the market about the long-term maintenance of high U.S. interest rates. These concerns have previously led to interest-free asset gold falling by 3% in November, the largest monthly decline since September 2023.

Jun Bei Liu, investment portfolio manager at Tribeca Investments, stated: "Trump's policy stance may bring upward pressure to the dollar."

Valencia wrote that at the opening of the Asian markets on Monday, the price of gold dropped to a daily low of $2621 per ounce, then rebounded slightly. However, the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index limited the rebound of gold.

The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes rose by nearly two basis points to 4.196%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance against six currencies, rose by 0.63% to 106.44.

The U.S. Dollar Index posted its strongest single-day performance in nearly four weeks, making gold priced in dollars more expensive for buyers in other currencies, further pressuring the gold price.

Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Precious Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, stated that the strength of the dollar was partly driven by comments from U.S. President-elect Trump, which put pressure on gold prices. However, the decline in the gold price has somewhat stabilized, with geopolitical uncertainties providing support for the gold price.

Grant forecasts that the gold market will show a volatile and consolidating trend before the end of the year, with limited downside.

In terms of data on Monday, the U.S. November ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to its highest level since June. Earlier, S&P Global announced an improvement in U.S. manufacturing activity, indicating a still strong economy.

Data shows that the U.S. November ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 46.5 to 48.4, exceeding the expected value of 47.5.

The major economic events in the United States this week include job vacancy data, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll dataannouncement. In addition, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, will also be market focus.

Israel suddenly launches an attack, Hezbollah accuses Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement.

In terms of geopolitics, Reuters reported on Monday that Israel launched attacks on the southern Lebanese towns of Toulousa and Haris on Monday, causing at least 9 deaths and 3 injuries. The Israeli military stated that dozens of Hezbollah targets across Lebanon were targeted.

(Screenshot source: Reuters)

Earlier on Monday, the Lebanese authorities reported that Israel's attacks on other areas in southern Lebanon resulted in two more deaths, including a national security personnel killed while on duty, bringing the death toll for the day to 11 people.

Shortly before launching the latest attack in Israel, Hezbollah accused Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement and launching missiles at a military base in the disputed Shebaa Farms area in Israel. Hezbollah stated that this was a "defensive warning attack".

Residents of Beirut also told Reuters that they heard drones flying overhead at low altitude in the middle of the night.

According to Reuters, the recent exchange of fire has made the ceasefire agreement reached under U.S. mediation less than a week ago increasingly fragile.

According to the American website Axios, U.S. officials are concerned that the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon may be on the verge of collapse. The White House is concerned that the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon may collapse following recent clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in the past few days.

How to trade gold?

FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia pointed out that the upward trend in gold prices remains unchanged, but buyers have not decisively broken the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2669 per ounce.Simple Moving Average(SMA) 2669 U.S. dollars per ounce.Relative Strength Index(RSIAs depicted hovering around the 50 neutral line, the gold price may continue to consolidate further.

Valencia stated that if the gold price breaks through the 50-day moving average, key resistance levels will be exposed, such as $2700/oz, $2750/oz, and the historical high of $2790/oz.

(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)

On the other hand, Valencia added that if sellers push gold down below $2600/oz, they may target the 100-day moving average (near $2575/oz), followed by the volatility low of November 14 at $2536/oz.