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摩根大通交易团队预计标普500指数年底前能逼近6300点

jpmorgan's trading team expects the s&p 500 index to approach 6300 points by the end of the year.

Global market report ·  Dec 3 04:49

According to traders at JPMorgan, the S&P 500 index still has room to further rise before the end of the year, despite experiencing the strongest rally since the early stages of the dot-com bubble burst.

The derivatives analyst at the bank stated that the most popular options trades are betting on the US stock benchmark to reach 6200 to 6300 points this month. Based on last Friday's closing around 6032 points, this implies a potential further increase of 3% - 4% by the end of the year.

"Positive macro environment, earnings growth, and continued support from the Federal Reserve are factors that lead us to maintain a tactically bullish view before the end of the year," wrote Andrew Tyler, a global market researcher, in a report to clients on Monday. "We believe capitalizing on market momentum is a wise move, and the likelihood of a pullback before mid-January is low."

Tyler's team recommends a preference towards value stocks and cyclical sectors, such as banks, auto manufacturers, transportation companies (excluding airlines), and small-cap stocks represented by the Russell 2000 index. In the technology and telecommunications sectors, they suggest continuing investment in the so-called big seven tech stocks, data centers, and semiconductors.

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Wall Street strategists generally hold an optimistic view for the remaining time of this year, a period in which the stock market usually performs strongly.

Even before the election, the trading department at Goldman Sachs also predicted that the S&P 500 index would rise to 6270 points by the end of the year.

The bank's global market director and tactical expert, Scott Rubner, expects this U.S. stock benchmark index to potentially close the year well above 6000 points. His analysis, spanning back to 1928, found that the median historical ROI of the S&P 500 index between October 15th and December 31st is 5.17%. For election years, the median returns are slightly higher at around 7%, suggesting a year-end level of 6270 points.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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