Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

In November, the manufacturing activity in the usa contracted for the eighth consecutive month, with 24 out of the past 25 months showing a contraction. This trend indicates that the overall manufacturing industry is still in a slump, but some indicators show signs of recovery.

The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but it is still in the contraction range.

The report shows that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing in November was 48.4%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from October's 46.5%. Although the index has improved, it is still below the critical expansion threshold of 50%, indicating that manufacturing activity overall continues to contract.

The new order index rebounded to 50.4% after seven consecutive months of contraction, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from October's 47.1%, barely entering the expansion range. The production index was 46.8%, a slight increase of 0.6 percentage points from October's 46.2%; the price index was 50.3%, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points from October's 54.8%, indicating a slowdown in price growth; the backlog of orders index was 41.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from October's 42.3%, indicating a further reduction in order backlogs; the employment index was 48.1%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from October's 44.4%, but still in a contraction state.

Improvement in the supply chain

The supplier delivery index was 48.7%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from October's 52%, indicating faster delivery speed (a supplier delivery index below 50% indicates shorter delivery times). At the same time, the inventory index was 48.1%, a significant increase of 5.5 percentage points from 42.6% in October, indicating some improvement in enterprise inventory levels.

Slight recovery in export orders, while imports remain weak

In November, the new export order index was 48.7%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from October's 45.5%, but still within the contraction range. The import index was 47.6%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from October's 48.3%, indicating continued low import activity.

Overall situation of manufacturing and industry performance

Timothy R. Fiore, Chairman of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee of the Institute for Supply Management, stated: "Manufacturing activity in the United States continued to contract in November, but at a slower pace. Demand remains weak but may be stabilizing. Although production and employment conditions are still contracting, there has been some improvement."

Food, beverage, tobacco products, and computer and electronic products are among the few industries that have seen growth. The report shows that 11 industries, including printing and related support activities, plastics and rubbers, chemicals, paper products, and transportation equipment, continue to contract, reflecting that the soft conditions in basic industries may take another two to three months to improve.

Fiore pointed out that in November, the manufacturing sector, accounting for 66% of the US GDP, showed contraction, higher than the 63% in October. Among them, 48% of manufacturing GDP showed a composite PMI index below 45%, an increase of 2 percentage points from October, indicating that the overall weakness in manufacturing is still evident.

However, improvements in the supply chain, increased inventory levels, and the rebound in new orders and export order indices show some bullish signals. Nevertheless, overall weak demand, product shortages, and slow production remain major challenges.

Editor / jayden