share_log

决策分析:特朗普再发关税警告,本周欧美都有大事

Decision analysis: Trump issues another warning on tariffs, with major events happening in Europe and the US this week.

FX168 ·  Dec 2 17:19

FX168 Financial News (Asia Pacific) reported that on Monday (December 2), Asian stock markets rose, boosted by record highs in US stocks. The dollar rebounded against the yen and the british pound from several weeks' lows, with this week's non-farm report being crucial for the outlook on US interest rates.

The Chinese stock market performed well, thanks to a private manufacturing survey released on Monday showing strong data, consistent with the official manufacturing data released over the weekend, indicating that the effects of stimulus policies are becoming apparent.

Data showed that the Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.3 in October to 51.5 in November, the highest level since June, exceeding the analyst expectation of 50.5.

A survey conducted last Saturday indicated a modest expansion in manufacturing activity, suggesting that stimulus measures are finally beginning to permeate this world's second-largest economy.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.9%, and blue chip stocks in mainland China increased by 0.6%.

The benchmark index of the Australian stock market rose by 0.3%, approaching the record high set last week. The South Korean KOSPI Index rose by 0.3%. Japan's nikkei/yen fell by 0.3%, dragged down by fast retailing (the parent company of Uniqlo), which fell by 3.6%, but the broader TOPIX Index rose by 0.4%. #Decision Analysis#

In the brief trading on the holiday last Friday, the S&P 500 index and the nasdaq index rose by 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, closing at historical highs. The S&P 500 index futures dipped slightly on Monday.

In the forex market, the usd rose by 0.2% to 106.23. The dollar against the yen increased by 0.5% to 150.53, reversing the low of 149.47 reached last Friday. The british pound fell by 0.4% to 1.2690 dollars, retreating from 1.2750 dollars reached on Friday.

The incoming US President Donald Trump has warned the BRICS nations not to attempt to replace the dollar with other currencies, which provides support for the dollar.

"This month, two factors will lead to market volatility. The first is still Trump's influence, especially regarding the future fiscal environment and the increasingly looming trade war," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"The second is the Fed's policy this month," Rodda said. "If the Fed cuts rates and offers sufficiently dovish guidance, it may greenlight some sort of 'Santa Claus rally.'"

The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0530, weighed down by political uncertainty in France and expectations that the European Central Bank might cut rates.

With the French government facing the risk of imminent collapse, trading in the euro has been heavy. French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a deadline on Monday to make more budget concessions or face a vote of no confidence.

Meanwhile, the outlook for monetary policy has also put pressure on the euro. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates this month, with the market indicating a 27% chance of a 50 basis point cut on December 12.

Yields on Japanese government bonds rose to a 16-year high, following comments by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda during an interview over the weekend that "the next rate hike is approaching as economic data comes into line."

The market is implying a roughly 64% chance of a 25 basis point hike this month. The yield on two-year Japanese government bonds rose 3 basis points to 0.625%, the highest level since November 2008.

However, Ueda also told the Nikkei that the central bank hopes to carefully observe the development of the usa economy due to the significant uncertainty regarding its outlook, such as the impact of the proposed tariff hikes by Trump.

The Federal Reserve is also under close scrutiny, with multiple officials expected to speak this week, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Traders currently believe there is about a 66% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Friday's monthly employment report will provide information for considering whether to cut rates again on December 18.

In the realm of cryptos, Ethereum rose to nearly a six-month high of $3,748 reached on Sunday, with the current price up 3.7% to $3,726. Bitcoin's price slightly increased to $97,863, slowly recovering towards the historical high of $99,830 reached on November 22.

In terms of csi commodity equity index, under pressure from a stronger usd, international gold prices fell 0.7% to $2,635.

Israel resumes attacks on Lebanon despite the ceasefire agreement, leading to a slight increase in oil prices. Brent crude futures rose by 11 cents to $71.95, while usa WTI crude futures increased by 14 cents to $68.14.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment