occurrences

The company released the November production and sales report. In November, it achieved automobile sales of 0.127 million vehicles, +3.7% year over year, and +9.1% month over month; from January to November, it achieved cumulative car sales of 1.098 million vehicles, or -1.8% year over year.

The industry's peak season combined policy stimulus, and the overall sales volume of major brands entered the peak consumption season in the fourth quarter and the effects of the trade-in policy accelerated. In November, all of the company's brands achieved month-on-month sales growth. Haval/Weipai/ Pickup/ Eulla/ Tank sales in November were 7.8/0.7/0.016/0.006/0.02 million vehicles, respectively, +4.5%/+2.7%/-42.1%/+8.7%, +7.9%/8.6%/23.0%/4.4% month-on-month respectively /5.6%. In terms of models, the Haval Raptor achieved 9 consecutive increases in February-November; the Haval Big Dog category sold over 10,000 units in June; the new Blue Mountain sold 6,488 units in November, +218.8% compared with the same period. The volume of high-quality models led the company's sales to improve. The company's production in November was 0.134 million vehicles, and the manufacturer's inventory increased by 6,813 vehicles, of which Haval increased 5,660 vehicles, which is a guide for overall demand in December. We believe that the company's sales volume in December is expected to increase further from month to month.

The overseas sales target has been achieved. The Brazilian factory helped the company further sell 0.043 million vehicles overseas in November 2025, +21.7% year over year, and -2.8% month on month. Since August, overseas sales have reached 0.04 million vehicles in 4 consecutive months; from January to November, it has achieved a cumulative total of 0.412 million vehicles sold, +45.8% year over year, and the company has achieved the annual export target of 0.4-0.5 million. In November, the company's overseas layout made further progress, with the opening of the 88th dealer store in Brazil; the opening of the 50th dealer store in Mexico; and the opening of the Riyadh brand flagship store. At the same time, the company announced that the Brazilian factory is expected to be successfully put into operation in mid-2025. The overseas production capacity layout will further strengthen the company's overall competitiveness. Looking ahead to 2025, we believe that the company's overseas sales are expected to grow further, driving the company's overall profit.

Blue Mountain achieved NOA nationwide expansion. Smart driving helps improve competitiveness. On November 15, the company announced that the new Blue Mountain equipped with Coffee Pilot Ultra will open the city NOA nationwide, further improving advanced intelligent driving capabilities. Currently, advanced intelligent driving is gradually becoming one of the important factors for consumers to consider when purchasing cars. As the company successively installs advanced intelligent driving systems on other models such as Weipai and tanks, the company's intelligent electric competitiveness is expected to further improve, thereby helping the company's sales increase.

Investment advice

We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 218.1/266.4/314.9 billion yuan, respectively, +26%/22%/18% year-on-year, net profit to mother of 13.5/15.2/17.3 billion yuan, +92%/13%/14% year-on-year, EPS 1.6/1.8/2.0 yuan/share, and CAGR-3 35%, respectively. The company continues to promote brand improvement, maintain a high growth rate of new energy and overseas sales, and give it a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; export sales fall short of expectations; risk of exchange rate fluctuations.