TOP TOY 门店数及收入持续高增：2024Q3，公司TOP TOY 品牌实现收入2.7 亿元，同比+50.1%。本季度门店数净增39 家达234 家。TOPTOY 定位于潮玩IP 集合店，随IP 经济发展，未来有广阔空间。Performance summary: 2024Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 12.28 billion yuan, +22.8% year over year; non-IFRS net profit was 1.93 billion yuan, +13.7% year over year; after deducting the impact of exchange, non-IFRS net profit was +18.3% YoY. Corresponding to 2024Q3, the company achieved revenue of 4.52 billion yuan, +19.3% YoY; non-IFRS net profit was 0.686 billion yuan, +6.9% YoY. The company's revenue and profit growth slowed in the current quarter compared to the first half of the year, mainly due to the high performance base in the same period last year, catalyzed by major IPs such as Barbie.
Domestic MINISO maintains rapid store opening: 2024Q3, domestic MINISO achieved revenue of 2.44 billion yuan, +6% year-on-year. The net number of domestic stores was 135 to 4,250. We calculate that the company's single-store revenue was -5% year-on-year, mainly due to macro factors such as the launch of major IPs such as Barbie in the same period last year, the high performance base, and fluctuations in shopping mall traffic in Q3. Q4 With major IPs such as Harry Potter and a recovery in offline traffic, we think domestic stores are expected to resume.
Overseas stores are growing rapidly, and peak season performance is expected: 2024Q3. The company's overseas market revenue was 1.81 billion yuan, +39.8% over the same period last year. There was a net increase of 183 overseas stores to 2,936 in the quarter, with a net increase of 79 direct-run stores to 422, and a net increase of 104 third-party stores to 2,514. Over the past year, the number of the company's overseas stores has grown rapidly, and Harry Potter IP is expected to perform well in Q4.
The number of TOP TOY stores and revenue continued to rise: 2024Q3, the company's TOP TOY brand achieved revenue of 0.27 billion yuan, +50.1% over the same period last year. The number of stores increased net by 39 to 234 in the quarter. TOPTOY is positioned as a trendy IP collection store. With the development of the IP economy, there is plenty of room for the future.
Catalyzed by major IPs such as Harry Potter, 2024Q4 and the annual performance guidelines are quite optimistic: at the public performance meeting, the company expected 2024Q4 revenue to be +20-25% year over year, with overseas Miniso revenue +45-50% year over year. Domestic revenue is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth, TOP TOY is expected to continue to grow 50% +, and the annual non-IFRS profit margin is expected to reach 16.0-16.5%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company is a leading offline brand chain retail chain, and there is still plenty of room for growth in future overseas expansion+domestic decline. Considering the capital costs associated with the transaction to purchase Yonghui supermarket shares, we adjusted the company's 2024-2026 non-IFRS net profit from 28.1/ 3.37/3.94 billion yuan to 28.0/ 32.4/ 3.61 billion yuan, +19%/+12%, corresponding to the closing price of Hong Kong stocks on November 29 being 16/ 14/ 12 times P/E, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: transaction uncertainty in purchasing Yonghui supermarket shares, consumer demand falling short of expectations, risks related to overseas operations, etc.
