Golden Bauhinia | GTJA issued a research report stating that Miniso (09896) achieved revenue of 4.523 billion in Q3 2024, +19.3% year-on-year, with overseas revenue of 1.811 billion, +39.8% year-on-year, and domestic revenue of 2.712 billion, +8.7% year-on-year; adjusted net income of 0.686 billion, +6.9% year-on-year, overall performance met expectations. Revenue growth in line with expectations, overseas growth driven significantly by accelerated direct store expansion, domestically affected by offline large cap customer traffic and the high base effect of Barbie during the same period, domestic same-store sales pressure in Q3. With the launch of the Harry Potter IP in Q4, global same-store sales are expected to receive a marginal boost; raising the estimated net opening of 650-700 overseas stores in 2024, maintaining the target of net opening 400 domestic stores and 100 TOPTOY stores domestically.

The bank pointed out that the company's gross margin in Q3 was 44.9%, +3.1pct year-on-year, reaching a new high. With the arrival of the overseas retail peak season in Q4, the Harry Potter IP products are expected to contribute to boosting income, showing significant operating leverage on the cost side, combined with the significant positive impact of the previous tax shield in the USA on the net margin during the peak season, it is expected that the net margin will see a significant increase in Q4.

The bank maintains the company's projected adjusted net income for 2024-2026 to be 2.751/3.342/4.023 billion yuan respectively. Accelerated overseas store expansion combined with the advancement of IP strategy, growth potential promising, giving a 20xPE for 2024, maintaining a target price of HK$47.40, and a 'shareholding' rating.