The us stock market seems to be either hitting new highs or on the way to new highs.

November marks the official end of the us stock market. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Once again, it has reached a historic high, with a year-to-date increase of 26.47%, and there is a possibility of hitting the "largest annual increase since the millennium"—29.60% (in 2013) in the last month, which means it needs to rise to 6,182 points before year-end.

As December approaches, market bullish sentiment is high because the "Christmas rally" is expected to drive the us stock market higher.

Historically, in the seven trading days after Christmas, which include the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year, investors tend to be more bullish, with a high probability of an uptrend in the U.S. stock market. This seven-day period is known as the 'Santa Claus rally.' Data shows that over the past 70 years, there has been an 80% chance of the S&P 500 index rising during these seven trading days.

If we look at the performance of the us stock market historically in December, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, December is the second best month for the s&p 500 index in election years—only November (the election month itself) performs better. Considering that the us stock market soared during this year's election month, this situation seems to be repeating itself.

Notably, the s&p 500 index has already risen 26.47% in the first eleven months of this year, and historical data shows that in the past 10 instances where the s&p 500 index increased by at least 20% in the first eleven months of the year, it achieved further gains in December 9 times, with an average increase of 2.4%, and the probability of rising is as high as 90%.

Coincidentally, Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, recently stated that Thanksgiving may mark the beginning of a strong seasonal call pattern in the usa stock market.

How will the us stock market perform?

According to data from the "Stock Trader's Almanac", from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the second trading day of the new year, the s&p 500 index has averaged an increase of about 2.6% since 1950. However,E-mini Russell 2000 Index the performance of the small cap index has been even better, averaging an increase of 3.3% over the same period since records began in 1979.

Given this, Jeffrey Hirsch, the chief editor of the "Stock Trader's Almanac", believes that investors should start buying small cap stocks from the Tuesday before this year's Thanksgiving and hold them until January 3, 2025.

In fact, so far in November, the e-mini russell 2000 index has risen nearly 11%, while the s&p 500 has only increased by 5.73% over the same period. Year-to-date, the e-mini russell 2000 index has risen by 20.11%, although it lags behind the s&p 500's 26.47%, some etfs focused on small cap growth have come close to the s&p 500's increase, for example, $Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF (VBK.US)$ and $iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO.US)$ Increased by 25.3% and 25.6% respectively.

From the rise of the e-mini russell 2000 component stocks in November, it can be said that there is a full money-making effect.

Among them, at the top is an american biological product company $Poseida Therapeutics (PSTX.US)$ , which has nearly tripled in November, and the company will be $ROCHE HOLDING AG (RHHBY.US)$ With a total equity value of approximately $1.5 billion, the entire transaction is expected to be smoothly completed in the first quarter of 2025.

The second is the air taxi manufacturer. $Archer Aviation (ACHR.US)$ In November, it rose over 2 times, with reports that Archer Aviation has made significant progress in its commercialization efforts. In the commercialization process, Archer is also targeting the military market, having secured approximately $0.142 billion in orders from the U.S. military, laying a solid foundation for future development.

The third is the leading fuel cell company in the U.S. $Bloom Energy (BE.US)$ In November, the cumulative increase reached 186%, with news that Bloom Energy announced a 1GW agreement with American Electric Power, marking the largest commercial procurement in the fuel cell field to date, indicating that AI datacenters are beginning to use SOFC (solid oxide fuel cell) power on a large scale.

The fourth is the quantum computing concept stocks. $D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$ In November, the increase reached as high as 185%. On the news front, amazon's cloud computing platform AWS announced the Quantum Embark program, which led to a surge in stocks related to quantum computing.

The fifth one is a biological product company. $Omeros (OMER.US)$ In November, the increase was 180%. On the news front, the company is a clinical-stage biological product company focusing on inflammation, central nervous system, and coagulation disorders. The company's third-quarter financial performance exceeded market expectations. Additionally, the company made progress in product development, indicating a pathway to resubmit the biological product license application for narsoplimab, which brings new revenue sources for the future.

Analysts believe that the resurgence of small cap stocks approaching historical highs is due to investor expectations of Trump's policies, especially tax cuts, which are expected to boost US economic growth.

Morningstar index strategist Dan Lefkovitz earlier stated that small cap stocks are primarily distributed in market sectors that are "usa-centric and economically sensitive," including financial services, basic materials, non-essential consumer, real estate, and other sectors, which may perform well under Trump’s policies.

Jefferies analyst pointed out in a report that the interest rate path will affect the sustainability of the small cap stock rebound.

In addition, the previous article mentioned that the recent trends of the three major 'frontier technologies'—quantum computing, satellite, and nuclear power concept stocks—have been extremely strong.

Interested mooer can click to read:'The S&P 500 Looks Toward 7000 Points! Optimistic Sentiment Spreads on Wall Street, and These Industries May Become the New Hotspot!'

In addition to the three industries mentioned above, the second half of AI has officially begun, and Wall Street believes that the next explosion point will shift toward the broader promotion and monetization of AI 'third-phase' applications.

Interested mooer can click to read:"The second half of AI has officially begun! How to find the next nvidia? goldman sachs names these 30 stocks that are likely to stand out."

Editor/Somer