Three points to pay attention to in the latter half of the session - a situation with selling and buying interspersed, resulting in a sideways movement.

Fisco Japan · Dec 2, 2024 11:21

12月2日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は小幅反発、売り買い交錯でもみ合う展開

・ドル・円は堅調、150円台に再浮上

・値上がり寄与トップはTDK＜6762＞、同2位は東京エレクトロン＜8035＞

■日経平均は小幅反発、売り買い交錯でもみ合う展開

日経平均は小幅反発。11.98円高の38220.01円（出来高概算7億7393万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

先週末11月29日の米国市場のダウ平均は188.59ドル高の44910.65ドル、ナスダックは157.69pt高の19218.17ptで取引を終了。大統領選挙後、中小企業の信頼感指数が上昇、また、関税策を巡りトランプ次期大統領とカナダ、メキシコ首脳が建設的な対話をしたことが明らかになり懸念が緩和し投資家心理の改善で買われ寄り付き後、上昇。感謝祭の翌日ブラックフライデーで小売店の割引セールなどに売上が過去最高規模に達するとの楽観的見方や年末商戦に向けた期待も手伝い小売セクター中心に買われ、相場全体を押し上げた。長期金利の低下を好感し、ハイテクも強く相場は終日堅調に推移、ダウは過去最高値を更新した。

米株市場を横目に、本日の日経平均は前週末比8.92円高の38216.95円と小反発でスタート。前週末に続き金融株に資金が向かっている他、半導体株などにも自律反発狙いの買いが入ったようだ。ただ、米国市場は短縮取引だったためインパクトは限られているほか、円高が重荷となっている可能性があり、買い一巡後は売りも広がり日経平均はマイナス圏に転落した。その後は次第に押し目買いも広がり下げ幅を縮小、プラス圏に浮上して前場の取引を終了した。

個別では、ディスコ＜6146＞や東エレク＜8035＞などの一部の半導体関連株、三菱UFJ＜8306＞や三井住友＜8316＞などの金融株が堅調に推移。また、トヨタ自動車＜7203＞やホンダ＜7267＞、IHI＜7013＞、NTT＜9432＞、SHIFT＜3697＞、関西電力＜9503＞などが上昇となった。ほか、大規模自社株買い実施の正式発表を受けて買いが向かったサンケン電気＜6707＞が急騰、プラスアルファ＜4071＞、ラウンドワン＜4680＞、SBIGAM＜4765＞などが値上がり率上位となった。

一方、レーザーテック＜6920＞、ファーストリテ＜9983＞、ソフトバンクG＜9984＞、サンリオ＜8136＞などが軟調に推移した。また、資生堂＜4911＞、ソニーグループ＜6758＞、三井E&S＜7003＞,信越化＜4063＞なども下落。不適切な売上計上の疑義で特別調査委員会を設置したACCESS＜4813＞がストップ安売り気配。ほか、FPパートナー＜7388＞、ラクーンホールディングス＜3031＞、帝国通信工業＜6763＞などが値下がり率上位となった。

業種別では、銀行業、保険業、証券・商品先物取引業が上昇した一方で、小売業、陸運業、精密機器などが下落した。

後場の日経平均株価は、上値の重い展開が続きそうだ。日銀が12月の金融政策決定会合で追加利上げに踏み切るとの見方が強まるなか円高ドル安傾向が続いており、引き続き上値を重くしている。ただ、日経平均は寄与度が大きいファーストリテの下げが影響しており、東証株価指数(TOPIX)は前場はプラス圏で推移した。一部の半導体株や金融株などには物色が続きそうで、プラス圏での推移を想定しておきたい。

■ドル・円は堅調、150円台に再浮上

2日午前の東京市場でドル・円は堅調地合いとなり、149円半ばから1円超強含んだ。米10年債利回りの上昇を受け、値ごろ感からドル買いが先行。主要通貨は対ドルで弱含み、ユーロ・ドルは大きく下げた。日本株の下げ渋りで、円買いは一服した。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は149円50銭から150円68銭、ユーロ・円は157円97銭から158円59銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.0520ドルから1.0570ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・グロービング＜277A＞、Ｔｅｒｒａ　Ｄｒｏｎｅ＜278A＞など、7銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値上がり寄与トップはTDK＜6762＞、同2位は東京エレクトロン＜8035＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・日・7-9月期法人企業統計調査・全産業設備：前年比+8.1％（予想：+7.0％、4-6月期：+7.4％）

・中・11月財新製造業PMI：51.5（予想：50.6、10月：50.3）

【要人発言】

・シュレーゲル・スイス国立銀行総裁

「ドイツが風邪をひくと、スイスはインフルエンザにかかる」

＜国内＞

特になし

＜海外＞

特になし

In the afternoon of December 2nd, attention should be paid to the following three points in trading.

・The Nikkei average rebounded slightly, with a tangled trend of buying and selling.

・The dollar-yen is firm, re-surging to the 150 yen level.

・The top contributors to the price increase are TDK <6762>, followed by Tokyo Electron <8035>.

■The Nikkei average rebounded slightly, with a tangled trend of buying and selling.

The Nikkei average edged up slightly. It closed the morning session at 38,220.01 yen, up 11.98 yen (+0.7 billion 73.93 million shares in approximate volume).

In the U.S. market on November 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,910.65, up 188.59 points, while the Nasdaq ended at 19,218.17, up 157.69 points. Following the presidential election, the confidence index of small and medium-sized businesses rose. Furthermore, a constructive dialogue between the incoming U.S. President Trump and the leaders of Canada and Mexico regarding tariff policies has alleviated concerns, leading to improved investor sentiment and buying after the opening bell. Optimistic views about retail sales reaching record levels on Black Friday, as well as expectations for year-end sales, particularly in the retail sector, contributed to the overall market increase. The decline in long-term interest rates was well-received, with the tech sector performing strongly, resulting in a steady market throughout the day and the Dow hitting a record high.

Keeping an eye on the U.S. stock market, the Nikkei average started the day with a small rise at 38,216.95 yen, up 8.92 yen from the previous week. Funds continue to flow into financial stocks, as well as autonomous buying aimed at semiconductor stocks. However, as the U.S. market had shortened trading hours, the impact was limited. There is a possibility that the strength of the yen could be a burden, leading to selling after the initial buying spree, causing the Nikkei average to fall into negative territory. Subsequently, bargain hunting expanded, narrowing the decline and bringing the index back into positive territory by the end of the morning session.

In individual stocks, certain semiconductor-related stocks like Disco <6146>, Towa Electric <8035>, along with financial stocks like Mitsubishi UFJ <8306>, Mitsui Sumitomo <8316>, saw strong performance. Furthermore, Toyota Motor <7203>, Honda <7267>, IHI <7013>, NTT <9432>, SHIFT <3697>, and Kansai Electric Power <9503> all rose in value. Sunken Electric <6707> saw a sharp increase following the official announcement of a large-scale share buyback, while Plus Alpha <4071>, Round One <4680>, and SBIGAM <4765> were among the top gainers in terms of percentage increase.

On the other hand, stocks such as Laser Tech <6920>, First Retailing <9983>, SoftBank Group <9984>, and Sanrio <8136> showed a weak performance. Shiseido <4911>, Sony Group <6758>, Mitsui E&S <7003>, and Shin-Etsu Chemical <4063> also declined. ACCESS <4813>, amidst doubts about inappropriate revenue recognition, saw offers at a limit-down price. Additionally, FP Partner <7388>, Raccoon Holdings <3031>, and Teikoku Tsushin Kogyo <6763> were among the top decliners in terms of percentage.

By industry sector, banking, insurance, and securities/commodity futures trading sectors saw increases, while retail, land transportation, and precision instruments experienced declines.

It seems that the Nikkei average stock price in the afternoon will continue to face resistance. Expectations strengthen for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at the December policy meeting, leading to a continued trend of a strong yen and weak dollar. However, the Nikkei average is weighed down by declines in First Retailing, while the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) remained in positive territory during the morning session. There appears to be ongoing interest in certain semiconductor and financial stocks, so it's advisable to anticipate movement in positive territory.

The dollar-yen is firm, re-emerging in the 150 yen range.

In the morning of the 2nd in the Tokyo market, the dollar-yen is on a firm tone, rising more than 1 yen from around 149 yen. With the rise in the yield of the US 10-year bond, dollar buying led the way due to a sense of value. Major currencies weakened against the dollar, with the euro-dollar falling sharply. Amid a sluggish downturn in Japanese stocks, yen buying eased.

The trading ranges so far are as follows: dollar-yen ranging from 149.50 yen to 150.68 yen, euro-yen from 157.97 yen to 158.59 yen, and euro-dollar from 1.0520 dollars to 1.0570 dollars.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

・Seven stocks such as Grooving <277A> and Terra Drone <278A> hit the daily upper price limit.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

・The top contributors to the price increase are TDK <6762>, followed by Tokyo Electron <8035>.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

・Japan's corporate statistics survey for July-September period: Machinery across all industries shows a year-on-year increase of 8.1% (forecast: +7.0%, April-June period: +7.4%).

・China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is 51.5 (forecast: 50.6, October: 50.3).

[Important Person's Remarks]

Chairman of the sharp corp Swiss National Bank.

When Germany catches a cold, Switzerland gets the flu.

Nothing special

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～売り買い交錯でもみ合う展開

Three points to pay attention to in the latter half of the session - a situation with selling and buying interspersed, resulting in a sideways movement.

Risk Disclaimer

Statement