Source: Caixin.
Author: Xiaoxiang. In 23, the company's overall sales volume was 18,000 kiloliters, with a YoY increase of 28.10%, showing significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan was 401/1288/60 million yuan, respectively.

In the recently concluded month of November for the USA elections, it appears that politics—especially the policy implications of former president Trump potentially returning to the White House—are the sole factors driving the trends in global markets. Investors are looking forward to marking the end of another stellar year for the USA stock market: the s&p 500 index has risen more than 25% in the first 11 months of this year.

The rise of the 'Trump trade' has further propelled the US stock market in the past month. However, in the coming week, it may be necessary to prepare for a severe reality check during a 'super week':

This week's US labor market data, including the crucial non-farm payroll report for November to be released on Friday, will have a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate cut plans. This will also serve as a major test for stock market investors, bond traders, and all other participants in the financial markets. In the same week when major data is released, many Fed officials, including Chair Powell, will sequentially give speeches, which will be particularly key in the context of recent expectations for the Fed to be 'hawkish in the near term and dovish in the long term'...

In recent weeks, many investors might have focused on the various economic policies of President-elect Trump, especially regarding the highly destructive tariff policies. However, the shifts in expectations for Fed interest rate cuts are also quite subtle.

On one hand, expectations for the Fed to cut rates in December have actually heated up recently. According to the FedWatch Tool from the cme group, as of last Friday, the market estimates the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates at the last meeting of the year on December 18 to be 65%, significantly higher than the approximately 50% forecast from a week ago.

On the other hand, in the long run, investors increasingly believe that the Fed's path to further easing will be fraught with difficulties. Expectations in the interest rates futures market indicate that, due to a waning outlook on combating inflation, market traders currently expect the Fed to cut rates only two more times next year, far fewer than the four rate cuts implied by the Fed's September dot plot.

Behind the Fed's expectations of 'hawkish in the near term and dovish in the long term' largely reflects concerns about the current health of the US economy and labor market, as well as anxiety over a resurgence of inflation under a future Trump administration. This week's key economic data and speeches from Fed officials are likely to further amplify or mitigate the impact of related monetary policy expectations.

The Chief Investment Officer of Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Brent Schutte, stated, "I believe that regarding Friday's non-farm payroll data, the market hopes to see some positive aspects, but does not want the data to perform too well. If the data is very optimistic, it will raise questions about whether the Federal Reserve will really continue to lower interest rates."

Previously, the non-farm payrolls in the USA for October unexpectedly plummeted to 0.012 million, the lowest level since 2020, significantly below the expected 0.1 million. Although most Wall Street analysts believe that the poor data was primarily due to two hurricanes in October and the Boeing strike, some analysts are concerned that the employment market is indeed deteriorating. Therefore, whether the non-farm data for November this Friday can return to normal or at least exceed market expectations will be of great importance.

According to the median forecast from industry media, economists generally expect that non-farm payrolls in November will increase by 0.195 million, a significant rise from the previous month's 0.012 million. However, a potential bearish factor is that the unemployment rate may rise further to 4.2%, up from the previous month's 4.1%.

In a report to clients, the Wells Fargo & Co economic team led by Jay Bryson wrote, "Through the monthly fluctuations in non-farm payrolls, we expect the employment report for November to reiterate that, despite the labor market remaining robust in absolute terms, the weak trend in employment conditions has not yet stopped. This message may be communicated more clearly through the unemployment rate — we expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.2%."

Edward Jones Senior Investment Strategist Angelo Kourkafas stated that employment data "will provide a clearer picture of the fundamental trends, which is important, as there is a great deal of debate and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's path for interest rates."

In addition to the non-farm data, the speeches of Federal Reserve officials in the coming week will also be extremely frequent — no fewer than a dozen Federal Reserve officials will make public appearances this week, including the most closely watched Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who is invited to be interviewed at the DealBook/Summit conference hosted by the New York Times at 2:45 AM Beijing time on Thursday.

From recent remarks by Federal Reserve officials, despite some disagreements among policymakers on specific details, most officials generally believe that the current rapid pace of interest rate cuts won't continue. Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated in his last speech in November that there is no rush to cut interest rates due to the robust labor market and inflation remaining above the 2% target. How Powell addresses the prospects for interest rate cuts in December and next year in his latest speech this week will undoubtedly draw significant attention from market participants.

Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist at Deutsche Bank, expects that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates again in December, then take a pause in 2025 for the entire year, waiting for more progress on inflation. Luzzetti remarked, "The urgency to cut rates is much less urgent; it may make sense to slow the pace of rate cuts sooner than they expected."

Steve Blitz, the chief USA economist at TS Lombard, stated in a report last week that the problem facing the Federal Reserve is that applying the current inflation data to the Taylor rule (a formula used by economists to determine where interest rates should be based on inflation levels and economic growth) indicates that the federal funds rate should remain at its current level.

He said, "Although I think the Federal Reserve still leans towards rate cuts, the employment data in November will ultimately be crucial for this data-dependent Federal Open Market Committee."

Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co, stated at a media roundtable last month, "As we enter 2025, we may see the pace of future rate cuts slow, with the Federal Reserve possibly cutting rates every other meeting." Her team expects the Federal Reserve will cut rates three times in 2025.

Editor/Jeffy