Cognyte Software Ltd. (NASDAQ:CGNT) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 54%.
Even after such a large jump in price, Cognyte Software's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.8x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the wider Software industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 5.6x and even P/S above 14x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/S.
How Has Cognyte Software Performed Recently?
With revenue growth that's inferior to most other companies of late, Cognyte Software has been relatively sluggish. The P/S ratio is probably low because investors think this lacklustre revenue performance isn't going to get any better. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping revenue doesn't get any worse and that you could pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Keen to find out how analysts think Cognyte Software's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.Is There Any Revenue Growth Forecasted For Cognyte Software?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as depressed as Cognyte Software's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry decidedly.
If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 12%. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 29% overall drop in revenue. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 8.5% as estimated by the three analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 27%, which is noticeably more attractive.
With this in consideration, its clear as to why Cognyte Software's P/S is falling short industry peers. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.
The Key Takeaway
Shares in Cognyte Software have risen appreciably however, its P/S is still subdued. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
As we suspected, our examination of Cognyte Software's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior revenue outlook is contributing to its low P/S. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. The company will need a change of fortune to justify the P/S rising higher in the future.
You need to take note of risks, for example - Cognyte Software has 3 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.