This week's important schedule overview
"Data Craze" is coming! Will the non-farm data reshape the market's interest rate reduction expectations?
Next week, the Federal Reserve will face a series of employment market data that may provide important basis for its next decision. First, on Tuesday next week (December 3, Beijing time), the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data will provide more clues about the employment market; secondly, on Friday next week (December 6, Beijing time), the U.S. November employment report will become an important decision basis for the Federal Reserve’s December 17-18The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)(FOMC) meeting.
Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal journalist known as the 'new Fed news agency', stated that the analysis of this employment report can be 'subjective', while most Wall Street analysts believe that the poor data is mainly due to the two hurricanes in October and the Boeing strike, but some analysts are also concerned that the job market is indeed deteriorating. Almost all analysts believe that this report will not affect the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed this month.
A period of intensive remarks from Federal Reserve officials! Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on Thursday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech next Thursday (December 5, Beijing time, 02:45 AM), and on that day, the Federal Reserve will also release the Beige Book on economic conditions, which will offer the latest policy signals and allow the market to digest the non-farm payroll data in advance.
In addition, several Federal Reserve officials will also give speeches this week:
On Tuesday at 04:15, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will give a speech.
On Wednesday at 01:35, Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak on the labor market and monetary policy.
On Wednesday at 21:45, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will deliver a speech.
On Friday at 00:30, 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak.
On Friday at 22:15, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will give a speech.
On Saturday at 02:00, 2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak.
Inflation data rebounded again! The European Central Bank is 'struggling' with the pace of interest rate cuts.
Overall inflation in the eurozone has risen as expected, bouncing back from 2.0% to 2.3%. However, the latest PMI data fell short of expectations, indicating that the economy is facing a risk of cooling. European Central Bank Governing Council member Schnabel made hawkish comments, stating that any rate cuts should be gradual. The pricing of interest rates indicates that the possibility of the European Central Bank cutting rates by another 50 basis points on December 12 is approximately 20%.
Next week, euro traders may be watching European Central Bank President Lagarde's speech on Wednesday (December 4 at 21:30 Beijing time), where she will deliver opening remarks before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON). Investors may be eager to gain more information on how the European Central Bank plans to proceed with rate cuts.
As the third quarter earnings season comes to a close, it remains to be seen whether next week's performances will bring surprises.
As the earnings season approaches its end, notable companies to watch this week include $Salesforce (CRM.US)$ 、 $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ 、 $Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US)$ , as well as $Dollar Tree (DLTR.US)$ 、 $The Kroger (KR.US)$ Waiting for retailers' views on the holiday season.
OPEC announces a delay in important meetings, intensifying the competition between production cuts and increases.
On November 28 local time, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), headquartered in Vienna, announced on its official website that two meetings related to oil production plans have been postponed for four days and will be held on December 5.
The market generally believes that the organization will announce yet another delay in its plans to begin reducing production cuts. A strategist from Deutsche Bank stated in a report: "Scheduling disagreements are the reason, and there are difficulties in formulating a joint production strategy, as has often occurred in the past. We suspect this is more about quotas rather than the overall strategy." Deutsche Bank anticipates that the alliance will choose to delay the production cuts again, or else the market will face a significant risk of oversupply next year.
This month, fossil fuel "hardcore fan" Trump won the usa presidential election, where he called for an expansion of oil & gas production in the usa, claiming he could reduce usa energy prices by 50% or more. Even under strict eco-friendly concept policies, oil production in the usa has reached an all-time high during the Biden administration.
Multiple new stocks are being listed.
$YSX Tech (YSXT.US)$ 、 $Leishen Energy Holding Co., Ltd. (LSE.US)$ will be listed on the usa stock market next Monday.
$DMALL (02586.HK)$ 、 $REFIRE (02570.HK)$ will be listed on the Hong Kong stock market on Friday.
This week's key performance calendar
December 2, Monday
Keywords: USA November ISM Manufacturing PMI; China November Caixin Manufacturing PMI
On Monday, economic data will be released, including the final value of the usa November s&p global manufacturing PMI, the usa November ISM manufacturing PMI, the usa October construction spending month-on-month rate, and the china November Caixin manufacturing PMI.
In terms of new stocks, $YSX Tech (YSXT.US)$ 、 $Leishen Energy Holding Co., Ltd. (LSE.US)$ will be listed in post-market trading.
December 3, Tuesday
Keywords: usa October JOLTs job openings; Federal Reserve Governor Waller's speech; salesforce, marvell technology.
In terms of financial data, the USA will announce the JOLTs job openings for October.
In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will deliver a speech, and New York Fed President williams will participate in a dialogue held by the Queens Chamber of Commerce.
In terms of financial reports, $Salesforce (CRM.US)$ 、 $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ Will announce financial results after the US stock market closes.
December 4, Wednesday
Keywords: China's November Caixin PMI; USA's November ADP employment numbers; European Central Bank President Lagarde's speech; dollar tree.
In terms of financial data, the USA's November ADP employment numbers, the final value of the USA's November S&P Global services PMI, the USA's November ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the USA's October factory orders month-on-month rate, and the USA EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending November 29 will be released successively.
In terms of financial events, Fed Governor Cook will give a speech on the labor market and monetary policy, St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give a speech, and ECB President Lagarde will make introductory remarks at the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee hearing of the European Parliament.
In terms of financial reports, $Dollar Tree (DLTR.US)$ Will announce financial results after the US stock market closes.
December 5th, Thursday.
Keywords: Powell invited for an interview; USA's initial jobless claims for the week ending November 30; the Fed publishes the Beige Book.
In terms of financial data, the number of initial jobless claims in the usa for the week ending November 30, the number of layoffs by challenger companies in November, the trade balance in October, and the global supply chain pressure index for November will be released successively.
In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is invited for an interview, and the Federal Reserve will release the economic conditions beige book.
December 6, Friday
Keywords: Non-farm payrolls in the usa after adjustment for November; Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks; multi-point intelligence, restructuring energy.
In terms of financial data, the adjusted non-farm payrolls in the usa for November and the preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for December will be announced.
In terms of financial events, Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin speaks, and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks.
Regarding new stocks,$DMALL (02586.HK)$ 、 $REFIRE (02570.HK)$ will be listed on the Hong Kong stock market.
Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!
Editor/rice
