This article is edited from Southwest Securities "Review and Analysis of Tesla, Inc. 's Stock Price and valuation (1)"

Tesla, Inc. has been listed for nine and a half years since it was listed in June 2010. in the mature US stock market, its rise in the past two months has been astonishing.

Reviewing Tesla, Inc. 's development process, profitability, stock price performance and Wall Street analyst rating, he has undergone three times of valuation remodeling.

I. valuation reshaping I：2013/4, Model SStir up the industry

The second year after listing, that is, June 2012, Tesla, Inc. launched Model S delivery, outstanding products attracted the favor of many customers.

Model SThe delivery spurred the company's revenue to grow exponentially.

In April 2013, Tesla, Inc. reported 13Q1 revenue of US $562 million, a month-on-month ratio of + 83%, and the operating loss narrowed significantly, which was only one step away from profit, which far exceeded expectations.

The higher-than-expected delivery performance and financial data have made the market realize that Model S has stirred the traditional automobile industry, and the investor debate about Tesla, Inc. has shifted from questioning its survival to measuring the success and sustainability of its competitive advantage. The company's valuation began to be reshaped for the first time.

Tesla, Inc. shares rose 575 per cent in the 18 months between 2013 and 2014, compared with a 47 per cent rise in the Nasdaq over the same period.

Second, valuation reshaping II：2016/11, Model 3Open up the broad imagination

From 2014 to 2016, Tesla, Inc. 's shares fell 13%, while the Nasdaq rose 17% over the same period.

During this period, Tesla, Inc. was exposed to risks such as a sharp drop in the price of crude oil (gasoline vehicles are cost-effective) and business expansion to a drag on energy storage. 2015Q4 Model X started delivery, but then declined for two consecutive quarters.

But soon, Tesla, Inc. soon ushered in a series of positive.

Q3 results announced in October 2016 exceeded expectations, with revenue of US $2.3 billion, + 145% year-on-year; net profit of US $22 million, which has been corrected again since 13Q1; and 16Q3 shipped a record high of 24821 vehicles. More importantly, the quarterly report revealed that the Model 3 production line has been laid and the super factory will start production in 16Q4 as planned.

The 2017 Q1 financial report released on May 4, 2017 said that Model3 orders had reached nearly 400000 vehicles.

The above events made the market reopen expectations for Tesla, Inc., and the valuation ushered in a second reshaping: if 40Ten thousand orders can be fully delivered, so you can achieve a sustained quarterly profit.

Between 2016.11 and 2017.6, Tesla, Inc. 's share price rose 101 per cent, while the Nasdaq rose 25 per cent over the same period.

三、Valuation reshapingIIIDomestic M3、 model YThe first sign of autopilot service

In the second half of 2017, Tesla, Inc. fell into capacity hell and cash flow crisis because of the ramp up of Model 3 production capacity; experienced executive turnover and privatization farce in 2018; 2019Q1 delivery declined and the share price fell to $185 in May 2019.

On December 24, 2019, Tesla, Inc. announced that CICC had received a total of 10 billion yuan in loans.

December 30, 2019, the first batch of 15 vehiclesDomesticModel 3Delivery；

On January 3, 2020, it was announcedDomesticModel 3Reduce the price to 29.9万；

On January 4, 2020, it was announced that Model Y would start at 444000.2019Delivery exceeded expectations by 36.7 for the whole yearTen thousand vehicles；

On January 7, 2020, the launch was announcedShanghai factoryModel YManufacturing project

January 29, 202019Q4 The financial report once again exceeded the expected profit, guideline 2020Annual delivery will exceed 50Ten thousand.

A series of events, includingDomesticM3Production leads to cost reduction, model YTo promote, exceed expected earnings, and optimistic guidance, Tesla, Inc. is all fulfilling the promise of electrification of the industry to the market. Autopilot, software services continue to charge, confirming that the company's business model continues to move closer to Apple Inc, the valuation ushered in the second reshaping.

In just two months, Tesla, Inc. shares rose 81 per cent, while the Nasdaq rose 8 per cent over the same period.

In retrospect, Tesla, Inc. 's recent increase has exceeded the valuation system of electric vehicles, but Tesla, Inc. 's valuation system can not be explained by simple electric vehicles, there are also two major factors: short replenishment and investor enthusiasm.

Investors are more willing to pay a high premium for new energy, which will last for more than a decade with high growth and high certainty. It is believed that in the future, with the decline in production costs, the increase in gross profit margin, the improvement of capital efficiency and the realization of autonomy, Tesla, Inc. stock price will still usher in a substantial increase.