维持增持评级 。考虑到公司的下游部分领域需求不及预期，我们下调公司2024-2025 年EPS 分别至-0.21（-0.45）/0.27（-0.12）元，新增公司2026 年EPS 预测为0.45 元，参考可比公司估值水平，同时考虑公司在光刻机、国防军工领域的布局以及领先地位，给予公司2025 年PE 170x，提升目标价至45.9（+14.7）元，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's financial indicators have continued to pick up since 2024, and are progressing rapidly in high-end lenses and other fields, and it is expected that performance will continue to recover
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Considering that demand in some downstream areas of the company fell short of expectations, we lowered the company's 2024-2025 EPS to -0.21 (-0.45) /0.27 (-0.12) yuan, respectively, and added the 2026 EPS forecast to 0.45 yuan. Referring to comparable company valuation levels, while also considering the company's layout and leading position in the fields of lithography, defense and military industry, we gave the company a 2025 PE 170x, raised the target price to 45.9 (+14.7) yuan, and maintained the incremental rating.
Performance continued to recover, and net profit to mother was corrected in the third quarter of 2024. Since 2024, the company's gross margin has continued to recover. 24Q1-24Q3 gross margins were 19.07%, 19.40%, and 24.34%, respectively. Q3 product gross margin increased to 24.34%, +10.25pcts year on year, +4.94pcts month-on-month, and net profit corrected in the third quarter. The main reasons were: (1) increased demand for customized products and high-end consumer electronics led to an increase in the company's sales revenue (2) the company continued to strengthen management and optimize product structure (3) increase in government subsidies. The successful completion of the company's fund-raising project “Precision and Ultra Precision Optical Processing Experimental Center Construction Project” promoted the company's breakthroughs in ultra-precision optical processing technology such as infrared lens processing, aspherical glass lens processing, aspherical plastic lens processing, high-precision spherical lens processing, and UV lens processing, providing high-precision optical lenses and optical systems for high-end equipment (such as lithographers), defense, aviation, aerospace, etc.
High-end customized products are progressing smoothly, and the application fields of non-customized products are constantly expanding. In terms of customized products, the company actively cooperates with the needs of research institutes, state-owned groups and other fields, focusing on unmanned systems, low-orbit satellites, deep space exploration, guidance, etc., and is expected to rely on advantages such as cost performance and quality to further expand its market share and increase shipments and revenue volume. In terms of non-customized products, in the field of security, the company actively develops markets and customers and strives to stabilize revenue and gross profit margins; in terms of new displays, the company continues to develop AR, laser projection and other fields; in consumer electronics, optics continue to upgrade, and the market demand for glass lenses continues to rise; at the same time, the company is actively expanding in the fields of automotive, machine vision, infrared thermal imaging, etc., to further seek a driving force for the company's development.
catalysts. The gross margin of customized products continues to recover; non-customized products continue to receive new orders.
Risk warning. Increased production capacity fell short of expectations; R&D fell short of expectations.