According to the Sina Finance APP, htsc released the 2025 automotive industry outlook report, stating that the high-end layout of the whole vehicle is expected to continue to improve by 2025, bullish on HarmonyOS, and so on. In terms of automotive technology, 2025 will be a year of end-to-end development. In addition to the direct benefit to complete vehicle enterprises, companies related to the domestication of robots 0-1 and the dual opportunities of Tesla robots 1-N are recommended. The trend of component globalization is inevitable, and companies that continue to focus on internationalization are recommended. For motorcycles, companies with large displacements, especially those with high export growth rates, are recommended.

Passenger vehicles: maintaining high prosperity, new energy + high-end + going overseas are still the main themes of 2025.

The trade-in program driving rapid sales recovery in September and October, it is expected that under the continuation of policies in 2025, the industry sales will remain strong. It is expected that passenger vehicle wholesale sales will reach 28.78 million vehicles in 2025, an increase of 5% year-on-year. New energy vehicles and exports will reach 14.69/5.92 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21% and 18%. At the same time, the trend of self-replacement continues. In the latter part, leading car companies like BYD and the catching-up Geely continue their strong product cycle. Companies like HarmonyOS, NIO, Zeekr, and Xpeng are focusing on the mid-to-high-end market segment. Coupled with the absence of new joint venture high-end luxury models, the layout of the mid-to-high-end market is improving, and there is optimism for potential hit products from domestic automakers.

Overseas markets: focusing on Latin America, adapting vehicle models to local preferences, bringing new market increments.

Automotive technology: accelerating the penetration of end-to-end intelligent driving, robots embracing the opportunity of domestication.

1) Intelligent driving: The high-end intelligent driving is transitioning from modular to end-to-end. Domestic manufacturers, including traditional independent ones, are catching up with Tesla. It is expected that the high-end intelligent driving models will reach 0.13-0.15 million by 2025. The penetration of high-end intelligent driving is significantly accelerating, with the expectation that the penetration rates of high-speed NOA and urban NOA will reach 15% and 13% in 2025.

Robots: China is still in the early stages of commercial experimentation, bullish on the commercial potential of car manufacturers with autonomous driving capabilities in humanoid robots. Overseas countries place more emphasis on economies of scale and prices, with Tesla starting mass production. The investment focus may return to localized mass production in China to reduce costs.

Parts: The globalization process is accelerating, and 2025-2026 may be the starting years for overseas expansion and profit realization.

By selecting factories in Mexico, the USA, and China to calculate costs, it is found that under current U.S. tariffs, Mexican border factories may be the optimal solution due to advantages in labor, land, and relatively lower tariffs than China. In the short term, the profitability of Mexican factories is worth looking forward to in 2025. Considering possible U.S. tariffs on Mexico and China, seeking to establish factories in the USA may be the next important direction. 2025 will mark the starting point for Chinese companies to secure overseas orders from car manufacturers and expand overseas. It is recommended to continue supporting companies capable of acquiring customers overseas and operating globally.

Heavy trucks: The total volume in 2025 may exceed one million, maintaining stable growth.

Expected total volume of heavy trucks in 2025 to be 0.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of +10.7%. Among them, domestic demand/export is 0.62/0.34 million units, natural gas/new energy is 0.177/0.1 million units. In 2024, low freight rates, delayed implementation of replacement policies, rising gas prices led to a decline in domestic demand. In addition, with the introduction of export scrap taxes, the market started the year strong but ended low. In 2025, the market is expected to maintain a stock market trend: corresponding to the 2017-2018 logistics vehicle replacement cycle, engineering vehicle inventories at a low level, with great rebound potential. In terms of exports, car manufacturers in 2025 may focus on volume over price in markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to offset the decline in the market due to the imposition of scrap taxes. Structurally, the oil and gas price differential in 2025 may still be low, and new energy heavy trucks driven by policy and cost factors may maintain high growth.

Motorcycles: Positive outlook for continued brisk exports, with sales expected to grow over 25% in 2025.

The strong export momentum for large-displacement motorcycles is expected to continue in 2025, with Europe being a core incremental market. Independent motorcycle brands have reached near international first-line product capabilities in mainstream displacement formats and have attracted young consumers in Europe with high cost-effectiveness. In 2025, leading motorcycle companies may achieve market breakthroughs by introducing Europe-exclusive 'large-wheeled scooters' and filling gaps in upgraded products. Motorcycle sales in 2025 are projected to reach 16.38 million units, with sales of 250cc+ increasing by 26% year-on-year to 0.94 million units, and exports increasing by 40% year-on-year to 0.46 million units. High-quality brands with overseas distribution channels/agents may achieve faster breakthroughs.

Risk Warning: Macroeconomic downturn leading to insufficient demand, ongoing chip shortages.