Eurozone's harmonized CPI rose to 2.3% year on year in November, exceeding the ECB's 2% target, but the expected increase is too small to affect its interest rate cut plan. The ECB Vice President believes that the inflation data is good. Management Committee Stournaras predicts that the December meeting is most likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and that US tariffs may lead to a recession in Europe, prompting the ECB to cut interest rates more actively.

Traders raised their expectations of interest rate cuts. J.P. Morgan Chase brought forward the forecast of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points from January to December next year. The market expects the probability that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December from 10% to 20%, and has fully anticipated a 25 basis point cut in interest rates in December. The two-year German bond yield closed down about 5 basis points, a new low since November 2022, and fell more than 32 basis points throughout the month.

Tokyo's core CPI increased 2.2% year on year in November, exceeding expectations and previous values. The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates next month. The yen will rise more than 3% against the US dollar and rise above 150 this week. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed concern that further depreciation of the yen would increase inflation, and is considering the timing of potential interest rate hikes. On Friday, S&P confirmed France's AA-/A-1+ rating, and the outlook is stable.

10-year French/German bond yield spread narrows

The day after Thanksgiving (Black Friday), the US stock market and bond market closed half a day early. The increase of the three major US stock indices expanded after opening slightly higher, and technology, chip, and AI concept stocks rose collectively. The Dow, S&P 500, Apple, and Walmart all reached new highs, and S&P rose more than 1% for the second week in a row. Driven by the “Trump deal,” Russell's small-cap stock index rose 10.84% in November. Both the S&P and Dow recorded their biggest monthly gains this year, while the NASDAQ lags behind. Tesla rose more than 38% in November, and Nvidia rose more than 179% in January-November:

• The three major US stock indices rose in unison. The S&P 500 closed up 33.64 points, or 0.56%, to 6032.38 points. This week's cumulative increase was 1.06%, and the cumulative increase in November was 5.73%. The Dow, which is closely related to the economic cycle, closed up 188.59 points, or 0.42%, to 44910.65 points. It continued to rise 1.39% this week and 7.54% in November. The Nasdaq index, which has the majority of technology stocks, closed up 157.69 points, or 0.83%, to 19218.17 points. It has been up 1.13% this week and 6.26% in November. The NASDAQ 100 Index closed up 185.88 points, or 0.90%, to 20930.37 points. It continued to rise 0.74% this week and 5.23% in November. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of NASDAQ's 100 technology components, closed up 0.88% to 1717.4548 points, rising 0.53% this week and 2.37% in November. The Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, closed up 0.35% to 2434.77 points, rising 1.17% this week and 10.84% in November. The VIX Panic Index closed down 2.81% to 13.51, falling 38.25% in November, and fluctuated at an overall low level.

• ETFs in the US stock industry generally closed higher. Semiconductor ETFs closed up 1.63%, global technology stock index ETFs and optional consumer ETFs rose more than 1%, technology ETFs rose more than 0.9%, energy ETFs rose more than 0.4%, online stock index ETFs rose about 0.2%, and biotech ETFs, banking ETFs, and regional bank ETFs closed down as much as 0.31%.

• In November, regional bank ETFs rose 14.89%, banking ETFs rose 13.16%, optional consumer ETFs rose 12.91%, financial ETFs rose 10.46%, Internet stock index ETFs rose 10.26% — 2.12%, 4.4%, and 3.61% in the previous three months; global aviation ETFs rose 7.96%, 10.8% and 9.75% in the previous two months; energy ETFs rose 7.83%. Technology ETFs rose 5.17%, global technology stock index ETFs rose 3.88%, consumer goods ETFs rose 3.87%, utility ETFs rose 3.78%, biotech index ETFs rose 0.9%, medical ETFs rebounded 0.37%, and semiconductor ETFs rebounded 0.19%.

• Eleven sectors of the S&P 500 index generally rose. The optional consumer sector rose 1.11%, the information technology/technology sector rose 1%, the raw materials sector rose 0.49%, the industrial sector rose 0.43%, the telecommunications sector rose 0.34%, the energy sector rose 0.34%, the healthcare sector rose 0.26%, the financial sector fell 0.02%, the utilities sector fell 0.05%, and the real estate sector 0.52%.

• The “Seven Sisters of Science and Technology” is generally on the rise. (1) Tesla closed up 3.69%, rising 38.15% in November, the best monthly performance since January 2023. (2) Nvidia rose 2.15%, with a cumulative increase of 4.14% in November, and a cumulative increase of 179.23% during the year. (3) Amazon rose 1.05% and rose 11.53% in November, continuing the performance of 4.39% and 0.04% in the previous two months. Reports say Amazon workers from many countries will go on strike during the “Black Five” shopping festival. (4) Apple rose 1.02% to a new all-time high of $237.33, closing at $3.59 trillion and rising 5.18% in November. (5) Meta “metaverse” rose 0.9%, with a cumulative rebound of 1.19% in November. (6) Microsoft rose 0.11% to 4.14% in November. (7) Google A closed down 0.17% and fell 1.26% in November.

• Chip stocks generally rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 1.52% to 4926.56 points, falling 0.59% this week and down 0.41% in November. Industry ETF SOXX closed up 1.34%. Nvidia doubled the long ETF and closed up 4.22%. Wolfspeed closed up 7.4%, Maywell Technology closed up 2.87%, Asmack closed 2.41%, Kelei 2.36%, and Applied Materials closed up 1.98%. TSMC's ADR closed up 1.92% and fell 3.09% in November. Intel closed up 1.69%, Broadcom closed up 1.51%, Qualcomm closed up 1.36%, Ansemi Semiconductor closed up 1.09%, and Arm Holdings closed up 0.69%. AMD rose 0.69% and fell 4.79% in November. Micron Technology closed down 0.25%.

• AI concept stocks generally rose. SoundHound AI, an AI voice company owned by Nvidia, closed up 18.15%, BigBear.ai closed up 6.51%, Dell Technologies 2.58%, C3.ai 2.17%, Palantir 1.56%, Serve Robotics 1.28%, Oracle 1.17%, Snowflake 0.63%, BullFrog AI closed 0.47%, while CrowdStrike closed down 0.47%, and ultra-micro computers closed down 0.47% 6.93%. At one point, it fell close to 11.3% in the intraday period.

• Most Chinese securities rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.60% to 6697.70 points, with a cumulative increase of 3.02% this week and a cumulative decline of 3.51% in November. The China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed up 0.62% and fell 1.77% in November, while the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed down 0.39%. It fell 4.35% in November, FTSE China triple-long ETF (YINN) closed up 0.39%, and climbed 7.26% in November. The FTSE A50 index closed up 0.43% overnight trading at 13,240.000 points.

• Among popular Chinese securities, Mingchuang Premium closed up 8.22%, with revenue of 12.28 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 22.8% year on year. Fangduoduo closed up 7.15%, ZEEKR closed up 4.41%, NIO 2.28%, Vipshop closed up 1.77%, Station B 1.59%, Ideal Auto closed up 1.59%, NetEase closed up 1.57%, Ctrip 1.33%, Xiaopeng Motors closed up 1.18%, Alibaba closed up 0.9%, JD closed up 0.51%, Baidu closed up 0.27%, while Xinfang closed down 2.02%, Zhihu closed down 6.51%, Meituan ADR closed down 7.42%, Q33.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4 % exceeded expectations, and instant delivery orders increased 14.5% year over year to 7.1 billion.

• Bitcoin futures once surged to 0.099 million dollars, and cryptocurrency concept stocks generally rose. Bitdeer Technologies closed up 16.68%, Canaan Technology closed up 16.68%, Riot Platforms closed up 2.26%, and the “big Bitcoin holder” MicroStrategy, which was targeted by the short seller Citron, closed down 0.35% after rising 7%. This week, it pulled back 8.16%, surged 58.47% in November, and reached a record high of $543.00 on November 21. At one point, the market value reached $122.175 billion. The advantages of cryptocurrency “demon stocks” closed up 9.95% after falling more than 75%, while cryptocurrency exchange giant Coinbase closed down 4.75%.

• Among other key individual stocks: (1) Applied Therapeutics (APLT) closed down 76.31%, the worst intraday performance since the US IPO. The company recently disclosed that it has received a “completed response letter” from the FDA, indicating that the Govorestat New Drug Application (NDA) cannot be approved in the current format due to lack of clinical description. (2) US PV stocks rose, Sloarmax rose nearly 17%, SolarEdge rose more than 6%, and the US Department of Commerce initially proposed imposing tariffs of up to 271% on solar energy imports from Southeast Asia. (3) Advance Auto Parts, a leading US auto parts company, fell by about 7%, and Moody's downgraded its senior unsecured debt rating below investment grade.

European stock markets collectively closed higher after mixed ups and downs in early Friday trading. Technology stocks led the increase by 1.8%. Mining stocks rose 1.47%, with Anglo-American Resources Group, which was upgraded to buy by brokerage firm Jefferies, up 5.4%. The “politically turbulent” French stock index has changed little:

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.58% to 510.25 points. The cumulative increase this week was 0.35%, with a cumulative increase of 0.96% in November. The Eurozone STOXX 50 Index closed up 0.96% to 4804.40 points, rising 0.32% this week and falling 0.48% in November. The FTSE Pan-European Performance 300 Index closed up 0.63% to 2026.66 points, rising 1.06% in November.

• Italy's FTSE MIB index closed up 0.46% to 33414.56 points, falling 0.25% this week and 2.53% in November. The German DAX 30 Index closed up 1.03% to 19626.45 points, with a cumulative increase of 1.57% this week and a cumulative increase of 2.88% in November. The French CAC 40 Index closed up 0.78% to 7235.11 points, falling 0.27% this week and 1.57% in November. Spain's IBEX 35 index closed up 0.26% and fell 0.27% in November. The Dutch AEX Index closed up 0.59%, rising 0.22% this week, and rising 0.86% in November. The UK FTSE 100 Index closed up 0.07% to 8287.30 points, rising 0.31% this week and 2.18% in November.

The 10-year US Treasury yield fell more than 9 basis points to its lowest level since October 25, falling more than 23 basis points this week. Heated expectations for the ECB's interest rate cut helped two-year German bond yields fall by about 5 basis points on the closing day of November, and fell more than 32 basis points throughout the month:

• US bonds: At the end of the session, the yield on the US 10-year benchmark treasury bond fell 9.49 basis points to 4.1685%. The cumulative decline this week was 23.17 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 11.58 basis points in November. The two-year US Treasury yield fell 7.62 basis points to 4.1509%, falling 22.20 basis points this week and 2.34 basis points in November.

• Société Générale predicts that by the end of 2025, the 10-year US Treasury yield will rise to 4.5%, while the 2-year US Treasury yield will fall to 3.5%. The reason is that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates and reduce short-term interest rates, while the US economic growth accelerates while the US fiscal deficit increases. It is expected that the US will increase the amount of treasury bonds issued in the next few years, thereby boosting yields. Furthermore, Trump's tariff plan may push up inflation expectations, which will also lead to a rise in long-term interest rates.

• European bonds: At the end of the European market, the yield on German 10-year treasury bonds, the benchmark for the Eurozone, fell 3.9 basis points to 2.088%. The cumulative decline this week was 15.5 basis points, with a cumulative decline of 30.2 basis points in November. The two-year German bond yield fell 4.7 basis points to 1.951%, falling 3.9 basis points this week and 32.6 basis points in November. The yield on UK 10-year treasury bonds fell 3.4 basis points to 4.242%, falling 14.4 basis points this week and falling 20.4 basis points in November. The two-year British bond yield fell 4.4 basis points to 4.234%, falling 9.0 basis points this week and 20.2 basis points in November. The yield on French 10-year treasury bonds fell 5.1 basis points to 2.895%, falling 15.0 basis points this week and 23.1 basis points in November. The yield on Italian 10-year treasury bonds fell 7.1 basis points to 3.276%, falling 22.6 basis points this week and 37.6 basis points in November.

The US dollar fell 1.67% weekly to end an eight-week continuous rise, and the yen rose to 149 to a six-week high. The French fiscal farce dragged the euro down 2.8% monthly, and Bitcoin futures rose by about 39% in November, the best since the release of spot Bitcoin ETFs in February this year:

• US dollar: The US dollar index DXY fell 0.28% to 105.753 points. The cumulative decline this week was 1.67%, the cumulative increase in November was 1.72%, and fell to 103.373 points on November 5. The earthquake continued to fluctuate upward, reaching 108.071 points on November 22. The Bloomberg US dollar index fell 0.37% to 1274.83 points, rising 1.27% in November.

• Non-US currencies: The euro rose 0.25% against the US dollar to 1.0579, rising 1.54% this week and falling 2.80% in November. GBP/USD rose 0.41% to 1.2738, down 2.13%, falling 1.25% in November; USD/CHF fell 0.21% to 0.8811, rising 1.98% in November. Among commodity currency pairs, the Australian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar, fell 0.97% in November, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.63% against the US dollar, fell 0.87% in November, the dollar fell 0.08% against the Canadian dollar, and rose 0.50% in November. The Swedish krona rose 0.29% against the US dollar, fell 2.26% in November, the Norwegian krone rose 0.10% against the US dollar, and fell 0.35% in November.

• Yen: The yen rose 1.24% to 149.67 yen at the end of the session, rising 3.29% this week, rising 1.55% in November, falling to 156.75 yen on November 15, then fluctuating upward. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo discussed prospects for interest rate hikes on November 29, then rose more than 1.3% to 149.47 yen.

• Offshore Renminbi (CNH): Offshore Renminbi (CNH) rose 8 points against the US dollar at the end of the session to 7.2491 yuan. In November, overall trading was in the 7.0869-7.2728 yuan range.

• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin futures, the largest market capitalization leader, reported a cumulative increase of 38.83% in November, trading in the range of 67730.00-10100.00 US dollars during the month. Spot Bitcoin was temporarily reported at $97,470, rising 39.37% since trading ended on October 31, and reached $99728.34 on November 22. The second-largest Ethereum reported $3631.50, rising 42.52% in November. It traded in the $2381.00-3757.50 range during the month, fluctuating upward as a whole.

Although it was reported on Tuesday that the OPEC+ meeting is expected to postpone plans to increase production, the increase in EIA crude oil inventories was lower than expected on Wednesday, and Israel and Hezbollah accuse each other of violating the ceasefire to benefit oil prices on Thursday, but the entry into force of the Lebanese-Israel cease-fire agreement and mitigation of supply risks still caused oil prices to drop by about 3% this week. The IEA monthly report data on Thursday showed that the oil oversupply in 2025 will exceed 1 million barrels per day, accounting for more than 1% of global production. Dutch gas futures rose more than 23% in November, and New York gas surged more than 13% in November:

• US Oil: WTI crude oil futures for January closed down $0.72, or nearly 1.05%, to $68.00 per barrel. They fell 4.6% this week and fell by about 1.18% in November. US oil fluctuated repeatedly in the intraday period. European stocks fell more than 0.7% to 68.20 US dollars, and US stocks rose more than 1.4% to 69.70 US dollars in early trading.

• Oil: Brent crude oil futures for January closed down 0.34 US dollars, down more than 0.46% to 72.94 US dollars/barrel. They fell about 3% this week and climbed about 0.18% in November. European oil stocks fell to a low of nearly 1% in the intraday period and broke through $72.60, while US stocks rose as high as 0.3% in early trading to push $73.50.

• According to the news, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows that US oil production fell 1.2% to 13.2 million b/d in September.

• Natural gas: NYMEX U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 4.96% in January to $3.3630 per million British thermal units, rising about 13.31% in November. Dutch TTF natural gas futures, the benchmark for Europe, rose 2.20% to 47.300 euros/megawatt-hour, rising 0.96% this week and 23.18% in November. ICE British gas futures rose 1.49%, rising 0.13% this week, with a cumulative increase of 13.77% in November.

Gold prices rose for the second day in a row on Friday due to the weakening US dollar and rising safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tension, but the “Trump deal” pushed up the dollar to curb the increase in gold prices. Spot gold fell about 3.7% in November, the biggest monthly decline since September last year:

• Gold: COMEX gold futures rose 0.34% at the end of the session to $2673.9 per ounce, falling 5.37% in November. Spot gold rose as high as 1.1% to 2,670 US dollars. At the end of the session, it rose 0.20% to 2643.15 US dollars/ounce, with a cumulative decrease of 3.67% in November.

• Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 1.61% to $30.770 per ounce at the end of the session, falling 7.01% in November. Spot silver US stocks rose nearly 2.1% to 30.90 US dollars. At the end of the session, they rose 1.33% to 30.6250 US dollars/ounce. They fell 6.24% in November, the biggest monthly decline since December last year.

• Industrial metals in London had mixed ups and downs: copper closed up 8 US dollars to 9010 US dollars/ton. COMEX copper futures rose 0.31% to $4.1,075 per pound, falling 5.72% in November. Lunzine closed higher at $49 to $3103 per ton. Lunlu closed down $5 to 2,594 US dollars/ton. Lunn lead closed higher at $16 to $2,072 per tonne. Lunnickel closed down $161 to $15,903 per tonne. Renxi closed higher at $721 to $28,913 per ton. Luncobalt closed at 24,300 US dollars/ton.

• Raw sugar futures fell more than 7.2% in November, Arabica coffee rose more than 29%, and New York cocoa rose more than 36% to a record high.

Editor/jayden