Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

After Donald Trump won the election, bitcoin continued to rise, setting multiple new records, making this month one of the most remarkable performances of bitcoin this year.

According to Coin Metrics, bitcoin recorded a 38% increase in November, the best monthly performance since February this year. At that time, bitcoin surged by 45% due to the launch of the spot etf and first broke the high since November 2021.

As of the latest data, bitcoin rose and fell more than 1% during the trading day, reaching $96,375, and earlier hitting a high of $98,745.00.

In November, bitcoin's rise was mainly driven by expectations of Trump's re-election. In this re-election campaign, Trump positioned himself as a candidate who could lead the cryptocurrency industry out of difficulties. He promised to address the lack of transparency in digital asset regulation and improve the 'enforcement as regulation' strategy adopted by the USA Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in cryptocurrency business.

Trump's victory brought bitcoin prices close to the long-awaited $100,000 mark, just a few hundred dollars off. The market generally believes that Trump's re-election will not only bring more legitimacy to the cryptocurrency industry but also act as a catalyst for the macroeconomy, potentially leading to larger budget deficits, higher inflation, and changes in the international dollar status— all of which would positively affect bitcoin prices.

After the election, bitcoin ETFs represented by the IBIT fund launched by blackstone experienced strong inflows, setting a historical high for daily inflows. These inflows somewhat offset the selling pressure from long-term holders cashing out at the peak. At the same time, trading of bitcoin etf options also began during this period, providing investors with new tools for trading and speculation.

Market bullishness predicts that bitcoin prices will exceed 0.1 million dollars by the end of 2024 and double before the end of 2025. Although the usa elections have a short-term impact on price formation, many investors believe that, as a catalyst for bitcoin, this influence will mainly focus on early 2024.

The regulatory risks of bitcoin have significantly decreased during this surge, and the market's understanding of its role as 'digital gold' has become increasingly clear. Investors are also paying more attention to its fundamental factors. For example, the reduction in supply after the bitcoin halving in April this year, along with increased demand from institutional investors, countries, and regions for bitcoin as a fiscal reserve asset, has all provided momentum for its continuous price increase.

Historical data shows that the cyclical peaks of bitcoin usually occur at least a year after the halving. Therefore, many analysts believe that the upward trend of bitcoin has just begun, with greater growth potential ahead.

Editor / jayden