Source: Wall Street See

This year, Trump swept seven swing states to secure victory, but whether the public sentiment reflected in his election can be demonstrated in the economy and consumer sentiment will be tested this Friday, the "Black Friday" after Thanksgiving.

Previously, the industry expected that the year-end holiday shopping season at the end of November and December would see moderate retail growth. The largest global retail industry association, the National Retail Federation (NRF) in the usa, predicted last month that us consumer spending during this winter holiday would increase by 2.5% to 3.5% compared to the same period last year, which equates to total spending during November and December holidays ranging from 979.5 billion to 989 billion dollars. The upper end of this forecast growth range is close to the average level from the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, but the lower end's growth rate is still 32% lower than the historical average.

Regardless of how it is viewed, the above forecast implies that retail sales during this year's year-end holiday season will record the slowest growth since 2018. In 2018, the year-end holiday retail sales grew by 1.8% year-on-year. Isaac Krakovsky, the retail consulting head at Ernst & Young americas, stated:

"I think this Christmas will be tough. All of my clients, the big ones, tell me that they are spending less on (capital expenditures). ... When everyone is cutting back on spending and driven by what they see in the market, I think we will have a tough holiday season."

With the forecast of slowing holiday consumption growth, will Trump's election give his supporters a boost, stimulating spending during this traditional shopping season for us households? CNBC analyzed the transportation trends in red states won by Republicans and blue states that support Democrats, and spoke with shoppers from Texas, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, North Carolina, and Virginia, learning about some possible impacts of this year's presidential election results on the holiday shopping season.

CNBC found that voters supporting Trump held an optimistic view of the economic outlook, while supporters of Democratic candidate Vice President Harris were more pessimistic, fearing that Trump's policies might make life more difficult for the middle class. In a world where purchasing decisions are driven by sentiment, these differing opinions may impact how much people ultimately spend during this holiday.

CNBC pointed out that in an environment where consumer sentiment drives shopping decisions, these differences of opinion may affect consumers' final spending during the holidays. Experts believe that if people think the economy is getting better, it means they might be willing to increase their spending. Meir Statman, an expert in behavioral finance and a professor at Santa Clara University's Leavey School of Business, stated that Republicans' spending may be influenced by their optimistic sentiment, while Democrats' emotions may inhibit their spending.

Transportation data collected by e-commerce logistics provider Grip also reflects this trend of Americans shopping online after the election. The data shows that in states won by Republicans, the volume of parcels transported for online shopping increased by 50.4% after the election, while in blue states won by Democrats, the volume declined by an average of 11.2%, with only two blue states—Illinois and Minnesota—showing an increase in transportation volume after the election.

A nationwide consumer survey conducted by data analytics and consulting firm GlobalData after the election found that 51.3% of respondents believe that Trump's election as president will have a positive impact on the economy, and 13.5% of respondents plan to increase their spending this season after his election. 7.2% indicated plans to reduce spending.

In another survey conducted by retail analytics firm First Insight, one-third of surveyed consumers indicated that they plan to reduce their holiday spending budget due to the election.

Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData and a retail analyst, commented that consumers have differing views on the election results. Overall, more people believe that the election is beneficial for the economy than those who think it is harmful.

"If people feel good, they are more likely to spend a little more money during the holidays. Trump may not have a huge impact on Christmas, but in terms of consumer spending, he is more like Santa Claus than the Grinch."

Editor / jayden