In 2019, Buffett accepted an interview from Yahoo Finance on the eve of his birthday. Looking back after several years, the content he talked about at that time is still very valuable.

Especially regarding the U.S. elections and candidates' views.

It might be better to review these before the election results on November 6th, haha.

After all, in this year's election, apart from Berkshire Hathaway issuing a clarification statement (regarding Buffett being misused to endorse a political party), Buffett has not mentioned this at all.

But in 2019, when he discussed his political views, Buffett was articulate and insightful.

Buffett talked about the most important thing for a president.

"A president should consider this the top priority - protecting the country and reducing the possibility of suffering a large-scale weapons attack, this is the number one duty."

He also believes that the President's two economic goals are very important: one is to maintain the effective operation of market rules; and the other is to balance fairness and eliminate poverty.

In the past, Buffett often communicated with presidential candidates (and probably this time too). He said, "I often like to ask candidates a question, although they usually evade it, which is: Which of the positions you support are not supported by most of your supporters?"

In the interview, Buffett was also asked about the former healthcare project Haven, which may remind people of Musk's efficiency department now.

In January 2018,$amazon(AMZN.US)$Berkshire and JPMorgan formed Haven company in an attempt to address the high and rising healthcare costs for American employees, aiming to improve the employees' healthcare experience. However, in February 2021, Haven announced its dissolution.

During the interview, the project was progressing rapidly, but Buffett was very down-to-earth, knowing that resistance to change was very high, even though everyone recognized the necessity for change.

"Everyone thinks the system needs some adjustments, but no one thinks they need to adjust their own responsibilities. This reflects human nature. If I were in their shoes, I might think the same way."

In fact, the founders of these three institutions are the least bureaucratic and most suitable candidates to efficiently drive projects forward.

Of course, as always, Buffett is a master of quotable quotes.

"I'm not worried about missing things I'm not good at, what really bothers me is missing opportunities I should have understood, that's the real mistake. And the areas I can understand may only account for 5%-10% of all companies."

"You can divide investments into four frameworks, focusing on those parts that are both knowable and profitable. Even if you may miss 90% of the opportunities, but if you can grasp the remaining 10%, that's enough."

The most classic expression about the definition of a successful life is also here. Well, this part has been widely circulated before.

A great conversation, nothing is off-limits. Intelligent investors translate and share it with everyone.

01 About Economic Forecasting

Host: We have experienced a long period of economic growth. Has this growth cycle surprised you? What signs will you observe to determine if the economy is starting to slow down?

Buffett Hmm, I will look at a lot of data, especially data related to our company.

I like to see numerical information.

I receive some business reports every week, but these data cannot tell me how the economy will develop in the next three or six months, just reflecting how our business is currently progressing.

And these numbers will not affect my stock or company purchase decisions today.

While they are interesting, they will not provide me with guidance.

If we buy a company, we will hold onto it. We will encounter good years, bad years, and even potentially disastrous years. What we care about is the price, not the economic situation in the next 12 months.

Host: But are you surprised that this economic expansion has lasted so long?

Buffett: In the past ten years, I have had various moments of surprise about the economic development.

I have never seen any economist predict long-term negative interest rates. If you read Keynes, Samuelson's books, no one mentions the possibility of long-term negative interest rates.

I think there are still $11 trillion of government debt with negative interest rates. We have never seen such a situation, long-term deficits, extremely low interest rates, and almost no inflation, especially in times of economic improvement.

This is an unusual phenomenon, but the economy is always changing, which is why we never consider economic forecasts in our decision-making process.

My partner Charlie Munger and I have never made decisions based on economic forecasts in the past 54 years. We only make business predictions about specific companies and compare them with the prices we pay.

Interviewer: So, I guess you don't really pay attention to those "pessimistic scientists" (a mocking term for economists, stemming from the fact that economics often involves topics such as economic downturns and crisis forecasts, hence being jokingly referred to as "pessimistic scientists"), right?

Buffett: I can say I don't pay attention at all.

In terms of decision-making, it's just entertainment, like going to watch a variety show. I have never seen any economist really successfully trading companies or stocks.

Paul Samuelson is also a shareholder of Berkshire, but he has never been successful based on predictions either.

科学和经济学的不同在于，科学中的很多现象是恒定的，比如苹果从树上掉下来的规律不会因为政治变化而改变。

但经济学中变量太多，事实上，你必须对商业中存在好时光、坏时光有所预期。

如果你要在本地购买一家汽车经销店，或mcdonald's (MCD.US) 加盟店之类的生意，你不会试图去预测购买的最佳时机，而是会在合适的价格买到好的生意。你不会因为预计今年的增长是3%而不是2.8%就决定买下它。

02 关于现金

主持人 伯克希尔目前拥有超过100 billion美元的现金储备。你常说希望公司是“堡垒”般的存在。那么你觉得普通投资者应该有多少现金储备，按比例来说？

巴菲特 这取决于个人情况。

If you rely on weekly wages to make a living, you need to keep some cash on hand and avoid maxing out your credit cards.

If your house is paid off, living expenses are low, and you hold a diversified investment portfolio, you may not need to hold too much cash.

Host: So compared to Berkshire, you may not need as much cash?

Buffett: Of course, Berkshire has to bear the responsibility for insurance claims. We may encounter hurricanes or other unexpected situations requiring billions of dollars in payments.

We have over a million shareholders relying on us to manage the company, so we need to prepare for such situations.

However, if I retire, have a $1 million stock investment portfolio generating $0.03 million in dividends annually, my children are grown up, and the house is paid off, then I wouldn't worry too much about how much cash I have on hand.

03 About Apple Inc.

Host: Let's talk about Apple, it's a hot stock right now. You currently hold around $45 billion. Will you closely monitor the situation with Apple? Many people are worried about them not releasing new products.

Buffett If you need to closely track a company's situation, then you shouldn't own it.

If you buy a company, like a farm, you wouldn't go check how tall the corn has grown every few weeks, and you wouldn't overly worry about factors like low stock price years or export impacts.

You would hold onto the farm after buying it.

I bought a farm in the 1980s which my son operates, but I've only visited once. Staring at it won't make it grow faster, and you can't encourage it with slogans like "Go for it, work hard."

Some years prices are good, some years not, some years high yield, sometimes low.

What I care about is long-term cultivation, such as improving yields through crop rotation. In fact, this farm might have only produced 30 or 35 bushels of corn per acre a hundred years ago, and now in good years it can reach 200 bushels.

The progress in American agriculture is one reason why commodity prices stay stable in the long term, and we all benefit from it. Apple is also a similar long-term investment.

Host So, Apple is like a farm?

Buffett Yes, this is a long-term investment.

If you have the best local car dealers/auto retailers, own the best brands, and are managed by reliable people, you won't go to the store every day to see how many people entered or change strategies because of potential sales impact from interest rate hikes.

You know there are 365 days in a year, and you will hold it for 20 years, which is 7,300 days.

The situations will be different every day and every year. If daily fluctuations are important to you, then you shouldn't buy it.

04 About Share Buyback

Host So let's turn to another hot topic - share buyback.

In the annual report, it can be seen that between December 13th and 24th, you seemed to have repurchased approximately 0.233 billion US dollars' worth of Berkshire shares, coincidentally at the market's interim low point.

How did you anticipate this? What were you thinking at that time?

Buffett If I knew that was the low point, I would buy much more than this.

In fact, this is not considered a large-scale purchase for us.

If there is a large amount of remaining cash, and the business needs are all met, we will consider buying back Berkshire stock.

Last year, we invested $14 billion in real estate, factories, and equipment, far exceeding depreciation expenses, to ensure business needs are met.

If we have surplus cash, and haven't found suitable business investments, and if my partner Charlie Munger and I believe the company's stock is trading below its intrinsic value, then we will engage in stock buybacks.

Host: So at that time, you thought that was the situation?

Buffett: Yes, we thought so.

But what really appeals is when the stock price takes a big dive.

When you can buy $1 worth for 60 or 70 cents, as long as you have enough cash, buy as quickly as possible.

Host: Is this situation similar to 2009?

Buffett: Yes.

If we jointly own a McDonald's franchise worth one million dollars, and you hold 50% of the shares. If you tell me that you are willing to sell your share for $0.4 million, I will buy it immediately.

And if you ask for $0.6 million, then I will say, you can come back tomorrow.

Host: Senator Schumer and Sanders hope the government will legislate when companies can conduct share buybacks. There have also been reports recently that some executives seem to have engaged in insider trading during buyback periods.

Do you think buybacks are an issue?

Buffett: There will be some people who improperly use buybacks, but this is not directly related to buybacks themselves.

I have been observing share buyback activities for many years, with the proportion of improper behavior almost zero. However, perhaps it is because there are not many opportunities.

I do not completely agree with the conclusion of that report. In fact, buybacks are essentially a way to distribute funds to shareholders, which can also be achieved through dividends, and American companies should periodically distribute profits to shareholders.

Sometimes we achieve this through buybacks instead of dividends.

Most companies have dividend policies in place if there is excess funds beyond business requirements. If the stock is undervalued, buybacks are completely justified.

Should the government regulate when companies can buy back shares, or at least set certain conditions?

Actually, the government does have certain restrictions on buybacks, such as some basic rules of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which limit companies from engaging in 'manipulative' behavior during buybacks.

But I do not think the government should decide on a company's dividend policy, or even directly guide companies on how to allocate capital.

The government can promote certain types of investments through incentive measures, such as encouraging the development of wind power. In the past, there were special tax breaks for oil, about 50 years ago, but that was more due to political reasons.

Renewable energy is a typical example of policy.

However, it is better to leave the decision of whether to return cash to shareholders and the specific method to enterprises.

05 About the 2020 election and candidates

Host The 2020 election is approaching. I know you have a high opinion of Mike Bloomberg, but it seems he doesn't intend to run.

Buffett Yeah, it's difficult to win with just the votes of billionaires (laughs). But I really admire him. I hope he runs, I am very clear about that.

Host Howard Schultz may run, and President Trump himself is a business executive.

So there are two questions: Are business executives suitable to be presidents? What qualities do you think an ideal president should have?

Buffett I think business executives can be suitable presidents, but not because their business background gives them extra points.

First, I hope the President wakes up every day realizing that the biggest threat to this country with many advantages is weapons of mass destruction. Cyber ​​attacks should also be included.

You may encounter an evil genius driven by insane motives, like the anthrax incidents years ago. Who knows what drives them to send anthrax letters?

Our world is both beautiful and dangerous. This danger began in August 1945 (Hiroshima atomic bomb explosion). Einstein once said, "All changed in the world, other than the way men think."

So the President should consider this a top priority - protecting the country and reducing the likelihood of a large-scale weapons of mass destruction attack, which is the number one duty.

In addition, I hope the President has two goals in terms of the economy.

First, ensure that the market system, this "golden egg-laying goose," continues to produce more golden eggs; second, if the US per capita GDP reaches 0.06 million dollars, no one should live in poverty.

Relying solely on the market system cannot take care of people who find it difficult to adapt to the rules. Some people may have performed well during the Normandy landing, but do not possess the skills for success in the modern economy.

I myself do not have any athletic talent. If I were living in a sports-centric world, even training 8 hours a day would be of no use.

Therefore, we need to take care of the people that the market system can't cover, ensuring that they are not left behind while wealth grows.

Will you discuss these issues with the candidates and see their views on these topics?

Buffett They usually say what I want to hear, so I prefer to hear what those who disagree with these issues have to say.

I often like to ask candidates a question, even though they usually evade it, which is: What are the positions you support that most of your supporters disagree with?

This is the real test. But it is difficult to get a good answer unless some 'true serum' is used.

Host These are the key questions you will ask presidential candidates or the president.

Buffett This is also why Bernie Sanders (the longest-serving independent in congressional history. He participated in the 2019 U.S. presidential election as a Democrat and announced his withdrawal the following April) was so successful.

I think 90% of his supporters may not have heard of him two years ago, but they feel they know exactly what he would do because he makes people feel true.

If you ask him which of the things he supports are mostly opposed by the majority, he will tell you directly.

06 Errors about The Kraft Heinz

The host about Lowe's Companies , I know you said you would learn from mistakes, what mistakes are there?

(Congo bets: In 2013, Berkshire and 3G Capital each provided half of the funds to acquire Heinz Foods in full, with Berkshire's contribution being $4.25 billion. In addition, Berkshire also bought $8 billion worth of Heinz preferred stock.

In 2015, Berkshire and 3G Capital decided to merge Heinz Foods and Kraft Foods in stock and cash transaction form. In the transaction, Berkshire also paid $5 billion in cash dividends to Kraft shareholders. Berkshire and 3G Capital as Heinz shareholders also faced a 51% dilution of equity in this transaction.

In 2019, The Kraft Heinz recorded a $15.4 billion write-down, acknowledging that the price of the Kraft acquisition was too high. In the end, Berkshire wrote down $3 billion due to this series of transactions.

During an interview with CNBC that year, Buffett candidly admitted that he made some mistakes in the kraft heinz transaction, paying a high price to kraft. At the 2019 shareholders' meeting, he also admitted to shareholders' questions, acknowledging that in recent years, store brands in the North American packaged food industry have been continuously eroding kraft heinz's market share.

Buffett, I prefer to learn from others' mistakes (laughs).

Time will tell everything, but we did pay too high a price for kraft.

However, I think the price for Heinz was reasonable. Initially, we collaborated with 3G Capital to acquire Heinz when Heinz was still a private company.

And we paid a high price for Kraft, making the mistake of paying too much, it is difficult to have any remedial measures.

Secondly, there is always a game between retailers and brands. If I have a very weak brand and want to enter,$Walmart (WMT.US)$it is almost impossible. I have to make incredible concessions in order to compete. But if I have a particularly outstanding packaging product, naturally I would want to enter Walmart.

10 years ago, $Costco (COST.US)$once attempted to delist coca-cola (KO.US) . Their customer loyalty is extremely high, and their proprietary brand Kirkland has become a $39 billion big brand, spanning multiple categories, all since 1992.

However, in the end they decided to relist Coca-Cola. If it was Royal Crown Cola, they might not have relisted it again.

The game between brands and retailers will continue, especially more pronounced after the e-commerce revolution brought by Amazon. Walmart first led this trend, and Amazon further intensified the changes in the retail environment.

Our current retail environment is different from before, where brands used to spend billions developing, promoting, and even sponsoring television and radio programs.

When I was a child, campbell soup always appeared with the program of Jack Benny. At that time, it was very popular, and everyone liked this product.

But now consumers are more willing to try new brands, although they won't change every day, the times have changed somewhat.

What surprises me is that even Gillette's market position has declined. Generally speaking, men do not like to try new things frequently, while women are more willing.

In the past, if you were a loyal viewer of Gillette's "Sports Reel," it accompanied you as you watched events like the Rose Bowl, world series, then you would use Gillette razors for life. And most people still do.

However, the situation now is different from when we bought Kraft five years ago.

07 About Amazon

Host: You mentioned that Amazon is a disruptive company, then I have to ask you, even though you admire Jeff Bezos very much, you did not buy its stocks. Why? Is it still possible to buy now? Would you buy it?

Buffett: I have always admired Jeff.

I probably met him about 20 years ago and felt he was very special, but I never thought he could grow from selling books to today's scale. He has vision, and he has achieved this goal in an incredible way, which is something I cannot do.

I missed out on many opportunities, even knowing Bill, I still missed out.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$These are not the areas I excel in.

Missing things I'm not good at doesn't bother me, what really troubles me is missing out on opportunities that I should have understood, that's the real mistake.

The biggest mistake is missing out on opportunities that I should have grasped, but you can't see these mistakes (they are not reflected in financial reports). I do not consider missing out on things like Netscape a mistake.

The areas I can understand may only account for 5%-10% of all companies.

08 About the newspaper industry

Host, going back to the trend issue you mentioned earlier, how do you identify when a huge trend comes to an end? Obviously, most things will not change in the long term, but sometimes they do, like the newspaper industry was once a sector you were very bullish on, but now it's no longer a good industry.

Buffett: Yes, the changes in the newspaper industry from monopoly to franchise, then intense competition, ultimately leading to 'extinction'.

In the past, if you were the only newspaper in a small town, some competitors might emerge, but the strongest newspaper always survived because it had the most advertisements.

Advertisements are also a form of news for readers. People want to know which soda is on sale at the supermarket this week. This may not be suitable for the editorial department, but from the readers' perspective, ads are the most important content.

For example, if you are looking for a job, classified ads were almost the only way; the same goes for renting a place, the classified ad sections in newspapers used to fill entire pages.

And these contents no longer exist today.

News is what you didn't know but wanted to know. Nowadays, you can find out the results of national sports events the moment they happen, even watch on ESPN, understand political developments, stock market situations. When I was young, I used to check the stock market section before delivering newspapers, but the world has changed now.

When I was a kid, I used to check the stock market section before delivering newspapers, but the world has changed now.

This kind of change is gradual. Some large newspapers still exist, such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal, but other newspapers are disappearing.

09 About government debt

Host People are concerned about the $22 trillion federal debt. Should we reduce the federal debt? If yes, how should we do it?

Buffett If the deficit approaches 5% in times of economic prosperity, then this is a new problem. And it seems that neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party is particularly concerned about it.

We are not currently experiencing significant inflation.

In theory, it shouldn't be like this, but it is indeed happening. This is also why I say, do not overly rely on economic analysis, because no one can really get rich by economic forecasting.

Host About income inequality, wealth inequality, you have mentioned the 'income tax deduction' policy before. Are there any other methods besides this? Should we adjust tax policies?

Buffett Income tax deductions are the best way to put money in the pockets of those who cannot integrate well into the market system but are still good citizens.

These individuals have also to some extent helped people like me to achieve success.

We hope that such a group can lead a decent life. In countries with a per capita GDP of $60,000, everyone should have a decent life.

Raising the minimum wage would disrupt the market system. What they need is more cash, not higher wages.

The government can ensure that anyone working 40 hours a week and raising two children can lead a decent life at a relatively low cost.

This direction is supported by both parties. I believe payments should be split monthly rather than in a lump sum at the end of the year. It would be better.

Let everyone willing to work or unable to work have more money in their pockets, and we have the ability to do so.

A wealthy family would do the same. For example, if I had six or seven children and a business I wanted to pass on, I would choose the most capable child to manage it, because that's how the market system works.

But you would ensure that all seven family members are involved. You may reward the one who lays the "golden eggs" more, but you would also take care of others.

You wouldn't say to a child at the bottom, "Sorry, that's just the way the market runs," especially if the child may be outstanding in many ways - willing to share with others, and helpful.

You wouldn't tell him, "Well, you'll have to get your spouse to find a job and then find a place to live."

09 About the medical project Haven

Host About the latest progress of the medical care project, I heard that this project now has a name.

(Smart bet: In January 2018, Amazon, Berkshire, and JPMorgan formed Haven to jointly try to address the high and rising costs of American employee medical care, aiming to improve the medical experience for employees. However, in February 2021, Haven announced its dissolution. The extent of the challenge can be seen, no matter how mentally prepared you are at the beginning, ending in three years is still regrettable.)

The extent of the challenge can be seen, no matter how mentally prepared you are at the beginning, ending in three years is still regrettable.

Buffett Yes, it's called Haven.

Host Was it your idea?

Buffett no, no. I don't care about the name. I can accept it even without a name. This partnership is very good, large in scale, has a certain market influence, and involves over one million employees.

The three of us each have the ability to drive things forward in a large organization.

Generally speaking, companies of this size are prone to becoming very bureaucratic. Trying to push things like this in many large companies often encounters intervention from legal, public relations departments, etc., which we do not have as obstacles.

Neither I, Jamie (Damon), nor Jeff Bezos are worried about this.

So we have a unified commitment and the ability to execute this commitment. The only problem is that you are fighting a $3.4 trillion industry - equivalent to the federal government's annual revenue, and the entire industry feels good about the existing system.

For example, when we are looking for team leaders everywhere, almost everyone says the system can indeed provide quality medical services.

But when the medical insurance cost rises from 5% of GDP to 18%, while still expecting U.S. pharmaceutical companies to remain competitive internationally, this is not realistic.

So, everyone feels that the system needs some adjustments, but no one feels the need to adjust their own responsibilities.

This reflects human nature. If I were in their shoes, I might think the same way.

Therefore, the resistance encountered by reforms is very strong, even though people recognize the necessity of change. Of course, if the private sector fails to provide the change for a period of time, people may give up and say, let's leave this to the government, but that may be even worse.

Host: How often do you discuss this topic with Jamie and Jeff? I know Todd Combs is also heavily involved in it.

Buffett: Yes, Todd is indeed responsible for all our work in this area. If this project is successful, from Berkshire's perspective, Todd deserves 100% of the credit.

Host: Have you had any exchanges with Dr. Atul Gawande? (Atul Gawande, an Indian-American surgeon and journalist, was a key figure in influencing Obama's healthcare reform policy during his time as a White House health policy advisor)

Buffett: I've chatted with him once or twice.

However, I can tell an interesting story, about him, Atul Gawande, probably around 2010.

My partner, Charlie Munger, who is now 95 years old, both of us read The New Yorker, but we don't talk much about it.

One day, I was talking to Charlie about a great article written by an author I had never heard of before, maybe I didn't know how to pronounce his name at the time. Charlie said, "Oh, I just sent him a check for 0.02 million dollars the other day."

Charlie said it was the best article he had read in a long time, because the payment from The New Yorker was not much, so he simply sent a check.

Two people separated by 1500 miles, but both thought it was one of the most interesting and insightful articles we had read. We later followed him and even met him. But that was not my idea (laughs).

Host Haven, do you need to acquire companies to gain expertise?

Buffett No, I don't think it's necessary.

Host: What is your plan?

Buffett The plan is to support experts in this field who have great insights and experienced doctors respected by the medical community.

In fact, our goal is to find ways to provide better medical care while making people more satisfied with their medical experiences.

In other words, people need to feel that they are gradually receiving better care while curbing the continuous increase of medical costs relative to national output.

Currently, the United States spends 18 cents on healthcare for every $1 of output, while other countries spend only around 10 or 11 cents.

If we go back to 1970, the levels in all major industrialized countries were around 5 cents. We started from a similar point as them, but escalated faster.

Last year, the company tax cuts accounted for about 2% of the GDP. Everyone said it would be difficult to be competitive with an additional 2% in costs. Now, with healthcare spending at 18%, I think it has become a 'tapeworm' for the United States.

The US economy is doing well, and we have room to do some expensive things, but that doesn't mean we should.

Even in a wealthy family, you usually try to spend money efficiently—although not all wealthy families may think this way, but at least one family does (laughs).

We have an incredible economic machine, but we shouldn't spend 18% of the GDP on healthcare.

If we spend an additional 7 percentage points of the GDP, that would be an extra expenditure of $1.4 trillion annually.

Host, is the administration focusing on the issue of drug prices, isn't this a bit of missing the point?

Buffett, they are indeed trying to do something, and most members of Congress also believe this is a real problem, they see examples of specific issues such as drug prices.

But changing this system is very difficult, involving various issues. This is also why we have Dr. Hohenwald to lead this project, we have support from three large organizations.

We are not here to make money, nor do we expect to profit from this project in the end.

Host, will he communicate with health insurance companies?

Buffett, he will communicate with all parties, but his plans are not something we are going to elaborate on, as this is to some extent his personal vision.

We chose him based on his experience and accomplishments. He will learn gradually through practice, conduct some experiments, such as trying new methods in a community with a large number of our employees.

10. About investments and acquisitions

Host, you mentioned the difference in value between investing in company stocks and acquiring a full stake. Have you considered prioritizing buying stocks over full acquisition in the case of price differences? And why?

Buffett, generally, companies are usually sold with a premium because the buyer believes they can make changes that the current management cannot achieve.

I often joke that 250 companies out of the Fortune 500 should acquire the other 250 companies, so everyone takes turns every year, as everyone thinks they can do better than their predecessors.

Therefore, when we fully acquire a company, we do not believe that we can do better than the existing management.

So, I find it hard to accept a premium, especially when the situation of a premium becomes more serious.

Today, leveraged funds are very generous, which further encourages people to make purchases. People like to buy things they cannot afford themselves. Basically, as long as someone is willing to invest, it works.

We do not calculate leverage in any of our purchases.

We would not say, if we acquire this company for $10 billion, we can borrow $7 billion. Because we are actually using Berkshire's overall credit.

I can apply 70% leverage to any of our companies, which makes it look better. But in fact, it is Berkshire's overall credit that supports all of this.

So, just because I want to buy something, I say, "Okay, I'll buy it with 70% leverage, I can afford this ridiculous price," that's not rational.

Yes, there is a large amount of capital in the market looking for investment opportunities, and this imbalance is completely unfavorable to us.

About 20 years ago, a well-known person called me and said, "Warren, I know nothing about the reinsurance industry, but a large reinsurance company has made us a quote."

I simply gave him some advice but told him that he could not understand the full picture of reinsurance through our brief conversation.

I asked him why he was considering this acquisition, and he said, "We have to invest this money within three months, or we have to return it." Once he acquires that company, he will have expenses for the next five years and will still be able to enjoy some returns, even if it doesn't ultimately work out, he can still make a lot of money.

This is a good deal for them.

It is difficult for us to compete with such a model.

11 About General Electric

Host: Let's change the topic. Where do you find quotes like those from Abraham Lincoln (Buffett often quotes frequently)? Have you read 'Bartlett's Familiar Quotations'?

Buffett: No, I haven't. I probably browsed through some contents of 'Bartlett's Familiar Quotations' about 50 years ago, but I read a lot of books usually, so those quotes stayed in my memory.

At 88 years old, you have to remember something (laughs). You may not remember what happened yesterday, but often remember things from the distant past.

Host: I recently saw the stock of 'The New York Times.' In 2009, it was only around $3, and now it is $30. Carlos Slim seems to have done quite well. Did you consider buying 'The New York Times' at that time? Did they reach out to you in 2009?

Buffett: There is a small mention in a new book written by the former editor.

(Cong's Note: In his memoir 'The News and I: Reflections on the News Business and My Career,' former chief editor of 'The New York Times' Bill Keller mentioned that Buffett expressed interest in 'The New York Times' in the early 1990s, believing it was a long-term investment opportunity.

Keller wrote in the book that at the time, 'The New York Times' stock price had dropped, and Buffett saw it as a good time to buy. However, in line with other sources, Buffett ultimately did not invest in 'The New York Times' because he was uneasy about the company's management structure, especially the dual-class share structure. This ownership structure allowed family members to retain control over company decisions, which was not an investment model Buffett favored.)

They did encounter some difficulties at the time, and many companies were not very successful at that time. However, their online business is progressing well now, although it started slightly later than The Wall Street Journal, it has developed very well.

They have a natural advantage in the online field, so the business model is gradually taking shape.

I won't go into the history.

Host: The phones must have been ringing off the hook back then, right?

Buffett: The phones were indeed ringing non-stop, but to be honest, the money ran out before the calls stopped (laughs).

Host: You invested in GE at that time and made a decent profit, right?

Buffett: Yes, but I actually acted too early.

In late September 2008 to early October, I was very active, and then at the end of October, I wrote an article. I knew the situation would worsen and mentioned it in the article, but I didn't expect the stock market reaction to be so severe.

Therefore, I basically used up all my ammunition before the market bottomed out.

Host: What made you avoid investing in GE afterwards? Many people are asking, why didn't Buffett invest in GE to save it? GE is a great American company.

Buffett: Actually, I think Larry Culp has done a great job, recently he sold part of the business to Danaher, which was a very good deal.

I think his priorities are very clear, and recently his interviews have made me feel that he is a very capable person.

I am a supporter of GE, we buy products from them, and also sell products to them. I know many managers at GE, Jack Welch is my good friend.

We do not completely agree on political views, but we get along very well, I really like him. So, I am full of expectations for GE, hoping it will succeed.

12 About Berkshire's investments

Host: In your shareholder letter, you mentioned Berkshire's "thicket", where the third category of companies is between ordinary stock investments and full acquisitions. What is the situation with companies in this category?

Buffett, such companies, like Pilot Flying J, must be accounted for using the equity method according to GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) when holding more than 20% but not controlling.

This does not belong to other thickets, therefore needs to be classified separately, but it is not particularly significant.

Host, you mentioned that the total value of Berkshire is greater than the sum of its parts. Have you calculated this difference?

Buffett, it depends on the specific situation.

Sometimes the value of insurance float is high, sometimes it can be used to offset production tax, for example, integrating them into our consolidated financial statements in utilities, which is indeed a bonus.

In addition, we can seamlessly and efficiently transfer capital within the company. For example, See's Candy, an outstanding small business we acquired over forty years ago, generated a lot of capital. Despite our attempts to expand its business scope in many ways, all have been unsuccessful.

These funds can be used to purchase BNSF railroads or for other investments.

We can transfer capital within the company without generating tax burden, which is more effective than transferring funds through selling investments.

Host, you mentioned that tax cuts are beneficial for Berkshire Hathaway. Does tax reduction incur any costs, or is it completely free?

Buffett, indeed tax cuts have an impact. For example, the tax benefits we receive in the utility business are essentially passed on to customers, which is an inherent feature of utilities.

Overall, we benefit greatly from tax cuts.

Just like we are a private company, assume you and I jointly own a business. Before the tax cut, the government actually owned 35% of the shares, and 35% of the income had to be taxed. The government could have chosen to raise the tax rate to 40%, but luckily, it was reduced to 21%.

Therefore, it's as if that 'invisible shareholder' returned some shares to us and our shareholders. Many other companies have also benefited in the same way.

13 About the two investment assistants

Host, when you mentioned Ajit Jain and Greg Abel, you said Berkshire Hathaway's 'blood' flows in their veins. Since they became vice chairmen, do you feel they have brought about changes? Are they similar to you and Charlie?

Buffett, not quite. They each oversee an independent business.

Ajit focuses on the insurance business, while Greg has no involvement in the insurance business.

They are each responsible for managing very large operations. Ajit's managed business assets total at least several hundred billion dollars, while Greg's business annual revenue is about $150 billion.

The value of these businesses is close to the top 15 in the United States.

Charlie and I have a collaborative mindset overall. We have been working together for a long time and continue to do so.

Host: What about Todd Combs and Ted Weschler? They were not mentioned.

Buffett: They each manage around $13 billion of investments, including our retirement fund.

At the end of the year, we have $173 billion in equity investments in the stock market. They are responsible for a portion of those assets, and there is an additional $8 billion in the retirement fund.

In our approximately $180 billion investments, Todd and Ted manage $26 billion. They have complete autonomy and do not need to report to me. I check their investment changes monthly.

They seldom trade, occasionally make some small private investments, such as Todd recently investing in some small private placement businesses.

I understand the operation of these businesses, but I do not know their specific names, that is his field.

The host, have you ever briefly invested$Oracle (ORCL.US)$and quickly sold, was that Todd and Ted?

Buffett: No, that was my decision.

I later sold because I realized my lack of understanding in cloud computing.

It was indeed a mistake to purchase, I do not have a good explanation why I bought initially. I know a little about cloud computing, but not enough to feel confident.

14 About Berkshire Hathaway investors

Host: Barcleys released a report stating a lower expectation for Berkshire's earnings per share. Will you pay attention to these analyses?

Buffett: No, I won't specifically read them. These contents have no impact on us. If I spend time reading these, I won't have time to read the 10-K financial reports.

We won't make any different decisions based on these analyses. I also don't pay attention to quarterly performance figures, won't sell insurance in bulk or do other worse things just to chase specific data.

Charlie and I both know how the company is performing overall, as well as the trend and distribution of funds.

Host: A UBS survey shows that Berkshire Hathaway investors are most concerned about succession, investment performance, opportunities, share buybacks, and insurance profit margins.MergerChances.

Buffett Yes, I don't oppose this view, and I'm glad investors understand these key points.

In 1956, I founded the predecessor partnership of Berkshire Hathaway, where only seven people attended the dinner, all of whom were relatives and friends.

I gave them a four or five-page partnership agreement, saying it was a legal document that didn't need to be read in detail, but half a page of 'basic rules' must be read thoroughly. If they agreed to these rules, we would work together. If not, they shouldn't become partners.

Publicly traded companies cannot control the source of shareholders, while I attract like-minded investors through actions and communication, keeping those with different expectations out.

Host: Like the founder of Costco, Sol Price, who screens customers through membership fees to prevent those who only buy a gallon of milk from entering the store.

Buffett Yes. We hope Berkshire Hathaway investors share our expectations.

If Berkshire Hathaway were compared to a church, I would want the 'church seats' to be occupied by those who understand and agree with our 'faith,' rather than attracting a group of new investors to change direction every week.

Berkshire Hathaway has 1.645 million Class A equivalent shares, and I hope these seats are all filled with like-minded investors.

15 About JPMorgan and interest rates

Host: You have a significant amount of investment in the financial industry and have recently invested in Jamie Dimon's company. Why choose the banking industry?

Buffett: This is the industry I understand, the current valuation is relatively cheap compared to its future prospects. I believe they will be more valuable in ten years, and the probability is high.

However, I do not think they will be the best investment choice.

Among the many possible investment choices, I believe Todd and Ted will not disappoint me.

Host: You mentioned being surprised by the persistently low interest rates. Is this related to the global loose central bank policies and the deflationary effects of technology in society?

Buffett: You can analyze the reasons afterward, but no one told me at the time. If someone could predict the trend of interest rates for the next ten years ten years ago, we could make a lot of money in the bond market.

These are always clear in hindsight.

Tomorrow's newspaper will explain why the stock market dropped today, but in the morning, it will not predict such a decline. The key is to know the parts you don't know and ensure that these unknown parts are not the decisive factors.

You can divide investments into four frameworks, focusing on the parts that are both knowable and advantageous. Even if you may miss out on 90% of opportunities, if you can grasp the remaining 10%, that is enough.

16 About Climate Change

Host: Is climate change affecting your insurance business?

Buffett: Climate change will not fundamentally affect the insurance business unless you are writing 20-year policies.

For example, if a life insurance company signs long-term policies, changes in life expectancy due to climate change may be unfavorable for the insurance company. But we usually only sign one-year policies and can readjust every year.

For car insurance, for example, modern vehicles have become safer, with the death rate per million miles dropping from 15 to around 1, but repair costs have also sharply increased. Small parts like side mirrors, which may have cost 100 times more than in the past.

The cost of claims is rising, but the liability for compensation is decreasing.

Climate change is similar, although climate change is indeed happening, in fact, the price of disaster insurance is lower than in 2005.

Therefore, we have exited most of the disaster insurance business, not because of climate change, but because the price is unreasonable.

17 Concerns About Technology

Host: You mentioned that the pace of technological development exceeds our understanding. Does the proliferation of false information on social media, Facebook, and Google indicate some problems? Are you still concerned about this?

Buffett: I believe that cyber threats do pose risks to humanity, not just the issue of false information. What I am more concerned about is the impact of cybersecurity on social infrastructure.

Our railroads cover over 0.022 million miles, with some trains carrying hazardous materials like ammonia and chlorine gases, and the law requires us to transport these materials. I hope to do these things in an environment without cyber threats.

The complexity of cyber threats lies in their dynamic and unpredictable nature, there may be isolated incidents like anthrax cases, and technology amplifies threats caused by a few malicious actors, making them harder to control.

When you see what 19 people did in the 9/11 attacks, you realize that certain tools falling into the hands of crazy individuals, groups, or even a few crazy governments can indeed be terrifying.

我们并不一定知道他们所有的工具，而这些技术也在不断发展。

爱因斯坦曾说过：“我不知道第三次世界大战会用什么武器，但第四次世界大战的武器将是石头和棍棒。”

这是一个危险的世界。

18 关于马斯克

主持人 沃伦，不知道你是否关注过埃隆·马斯克的表现，你怎么看他作为CEO的行为？

巴菲特 我认为他在这方面还有提升空间，而他自己可能也会这么认为。有些人更善于表达有趣的言论，而其他人会对一些言论有所保留，知道哪些话可能带来麻烦。

不过，他确实是个非常出色的人。

只是我自己不觉得有必要频繁发表言论。我有过七条推文，全都是朋友帮我发的，她还打了大约一百个电话问我可以发什么。我从未自己写过一条推文，也不知道怎么发。

Host, have you had any communication with Elon?

Buffett. He joined the "Giving Pledge," so we had one or two exchanges, but that was seven or eight years ago. He did not attend our annual gathering, so I haven't seen him in seven or eight years.

19 About a Successful Life

Host, Warren, how do you define "true success"?

Buffett. I often say, if at 65, 70, or even older, you truly want the people who love you to actually love you, then you are successful.

I have never seen many people at this age who are loved by many but are unhappy.

And I have also seen some very wealthy people who, despite being praised and named, have no one around them who truly loves them, and even their children may avoid them.

Host, what advice would you give to those who aspire to success? For example, three suggestions.

Warren Buffett firstly, the best investment is investing in yourself.

For example, in terms of communication skills, I tell students that no matter how complex formulas they learn, if they can improve their communication abilities, whether in writing or face to face, it can increase the value by at least 50%.

Not being able to express your thoughts is like winking at a girl in the dark, no one can see it.

This is a relatively easy improvement, I learned this myself through Dale Carnegie's course.

Investing in yourself, this kind of ability that no one can take away.

Secondly, although I may be criticized for not fully practicing this advice, I tell students, if I gave you a car, and this would be your only car for life, you would take very good care of it.

You would fix every scratch, read the user manual carefully, and build a garage for it.

In life, you only have one brain and one body, by the time you reach fifty it's too late to start taking care of it, so realize this early and fully utilize the potential of your only body and mind.

When it comes to life advice, I believe that the most important thing is who you associate with.

You should associate with people who are more outstanding than you, because your direction will be influenced by those around you. You need to choose good role models.

If you want to emulate someone, be sure to carefully select the individual.

While you cannot choose your parents, as they will have a significant impact on you, you can choose other people who influence you, such as your partner, which is one of the most important decisions most people make.

Choosing a life partner is more important than selecting business partners.

It's best to choose a partner who is better than you, and hope that they won't realize this too quickly (laughs).

Host: What is the most common mistake people make in investing?

Buffett: They think they can trade freely and should do so frequently. They fail to realize that all they need to do is buy into the "American stock market" and hold on for the long term.

If you buy a piece of farmland or an apartment building, you cannot sell it tomorrow, while holding stocks provides immediate liquidity and relatively low trading costs.

This leads people to overtrade because of the ease of buying and selling, but frequent trading is not the same as smart investing.

Host, do your interesting breakfast habits every morning have to do with your wealth?

Buffett, since I described my habit of eating McDonald's every day, now I also have my office colleagues go buy some.

This is more of an entertainment sharing.

What I actually eat is what I like. Hot dogs, hamburgers, cola, ice cream with chocolate on my 6th birthday - I still enjoy these.

If someone told me that I could live one more year by just eating broccoli, cabbage, and onions, I'd rather live one year less because it probably wouldn't be too much fun.

I don't take risks in my diet, I just like what I like.

Host, it's interesting that you categorize onions, broccoli, and cabbage together.

Buffett, haha, maybe I just don't like onions, but I don't really put them in the same category (laughs).

Host, do you think business school is worth going to?

Buffett, it depends on the individual, not the school.

For some people, higher education is very useful, while for others it may not be that helpful. I don't even think everyone needs to go to college.

Our company has many jobs with annual salaries of seventy to eighty thousand dollars, and they don't require a college degree. I myself am not very interested in going to college, mainly because my father encouraged me to, and he could make me do anything.

If there were SAT exams back then, my father might have made me take them (laughs).

I felt back then that I could teach myself, I could read books on my own. So, if there isn't a clear goal, college may not be suitable for everyone, although it will suit many people.

I think there should be a reason to go to college, and I didn't find too many reasons at the time.

20 about several small issues

The host finally has a few lightning-round questions. Do you usually drink water?

Buffett only in necessary circumstances. Water is not my choice (laughs).

Host What's your favorite movie?

Buffett I like 'The Bridge on the River Kwai', which has many life lessons, and it's a very exciting movie.

Host Very interesting music theme.

Buffett Yes, very interesting. However, the ending is full of life philosophy. He built the railroad, but did he really want his enemies to pass through it? This is a thought-provoking question.

Host, what is your favorite book?

Buffett, the book that has had the greatest impact on my life is 'The Intelligent Investor' by Benjamin Graham.

Host, is it indeed this book. What is your favorite television show?

Buffett, that would probably be when the Nebraska team won an important bowl game (laughs).

Host, how much money do you usually carry in your wallet?

Buffett, I probably carry around $400.

In fact, my wife prefers using cash, so I occasionally bring home a large sum of money, and she will distribute it to me. She checks my wallet to see if there are any one hundred dollar bills left. If not, she will put some in for me.

My wallet is very simple. I have a 1964 one.American ExpressHowever, 98% of the time I pay with cash. In restaurants, I always pay cash, which is more convenient.

Host, thank you very much, Mr. Buffett.

Editor/Somer