同时，平台型业务的增长、商超服饰等日百品类的扩容，不仅对用户活跃和收入提升有帮助，而且高毛利业务占比的提升也有利于利润结构改善。JD announced financial results for 2024Q3. JD recorded revenue of 260.4 billion yuan in 2024Q3, up 5.1% year over year. From the perspective of group composition, JD Retail/JD Logistics/New Business each recorded revenue of 225/44.4/5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1%/6.6%/-25.7% year-on-year. From the perspective of business type, product revenue/service revenue each recorded 204.6/55.8 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%/6.5% year-on-year.
The company recorded an operating profit of 12 billion this quarter, of which the operating profit margins of JD Retail/JD Logistics/New Business were about 5.2%/4.7%/-12.4%, respectively. The company recorded non-GAAP net profit of 13.2 billion yuan this quarter, up 24% year over year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of about 5.1%.
JD Retail: Continued expansion of categories. 1) The revenue of the charged category increased 2.7% year-on-year in the current quarter; according to the company's results, it improved quarterly in 7/8/9. We believe that the trade-in policy has achieved good results. 2) The daily necessities category's revenue increased 8.0% year-on-year in the quarter. Among them, supermarket categories, clothing, and sports and outdoor categories all achieved double-digit year-on-year revenue growth, thanks to the company's efforts to continue to expand the product category. 3) Platform and advertising revenue increased 6.3% year-on-year this quarter, and the company continues to attract more third-party merchants to enter and provide users with diversified prices and product choices.
At the same time, the growth of platform-based businesses and the expansion of daily categories such as supermarket apparel are not only helpful for user activity and revenue growth, but also an increase in the share of high-margin businesses is also conducive to improving the profit structure.
JD Logistics: Operating profit margins have improved markedly. While JD Logistics's revenue increased this quarter, its operating profit margin also increased from 0.7% in the same period last year to 4.7% this quarter, mainly due to improved operational efficiency and the release of scale effects. We look forward to continuing this trend to help improve the Group's profits.
Reiterate the “gain” rating. Looking ahead to Q4, we expect the trade-in policy to boost consumer demand and JD revenue more clearly in Q4. Looking ahead to the long term, we expect that scale effects and changes in category structure will continue to improve JD's profit margins.
We forecast the company's 2024-2026 revenue of 1136.3/1197.9/1260 billion yuan, up 5%/5% year on year, and non-GAAP net profit of 41.8/46.5/51.15 billion yuan, up 19%/11%/10% year on year. Based on 10x 2025e P/E, we believe that JD's reasonable market value is 465.3 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of (JD.O) 40 US dollars and (9618.HK) 157 Hong Kong dollars, and reaffirms the “increase” rating.
Risk warning: Platform merchant ecosystem development falls short of expectations; consumer spending intentions fall short of expectations; innovative business losses exceed expectations; investment exceeds expectations.
