2023年末，许多经济学家认为经济放缓是主要情景，通胀仍然是一个主要担忧，这使得货币政策和企业利润前景变得模糊不清。但现在，利率已经下降，增长依然强劲，收益也在上升，推动市场上涨，尽管风险事件频发，但波动性仍然保持低位。After being contradicted by the "bull market" for two consecutive years, the current market sentiment tends to be optimistic, and no one on Wall Street expects a significant pullback in the US stock market.
A year ago, stock investors and strategists prepared for potential turmoil in 2024, concerned that the usa economy might face a hard landing and that the federal reserve's interest rate cuts might be too late to prevent the risk of a hard landing. Today, the us stock market is about to enter the 'bull market hall of fame' for 2024.
At the beginning of the year, few expected that$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$the annual increase would rank among the best in history, nor did many foresee that, driven by a few tech giants, market sentiment would be so optimistic that one risk event after another was downplayed, leading to another strong rebound.
At the end of 2023, many economists believed that an economic slowdown was the main scenario and that inflation remained a major concern, making the outlook for monetary policy and corporate profits unclear. But now, interest rates have fallen, growth continues to be strong, and earnings are rising, driving the market up, even though risk events are frequent, volatility remains low.
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$Both the s&p 500 index and the nasdaq 100 index have risen over 20% this year. Companies representing ai$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The company's performance nearly tripled in 2024, with all technology stocks closely following.
After an outstanding performance in 2023, many market participants do not believe that the US stock market can continue its strong rise this year. William Davies, Chief Investment Officer of Columbia Threadneedle Investments, stated, "The US stock market has seen an unusual rise, the US economic growth has remained strong, and inflation is gradually declining."
This year, US stocks have experienced mild fluctuations, with only one major decline: a pullback this summer, where small sell-offs occurred around early August, but the downward trend lasted less than a month and failed to break the 10% threshold, which is typically seen as a significant correction.
Despite the geopolitical situation being a potential threat, whether it is the escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, or the US presidential election, none have caused any deep-rooted concerns.
Even the European stock markets have performed well. Despite the uncertain economic outlook and the collapse of the French and German governments, most benchmark indices in the region have been rising this year. However, the strength of the US stock market has been so overwhelming that the gap between the europe stoxx 600 index and the s&p 500 index will mark one of the worst years. Due to political turmoil, the French stock market is also a rare underperformer among developed markets in 2024.
As the new year approaches, current market sentiment leans towards optimism, and no one on Wall Street expects a major correction, although there is some skepticism about whether the stock market can perform well for three consecutive years. Davies stated:
The profit growth forecast for the USA in 2025 remains optimistic at around 15%, and this sustained resilience is somewhat surprising, as there are risks in the global economy as we enter 2025.
Editor/Rocky
