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中金给予蔚来(09866)“跑赢行业”评级,称期待交付冲高、迎更强产品周期

CICC gives NIO (09866) an "outperform industry" rating, stating an expectation for delivery to surge and a stronger product cycle ahead.

Zhitong Finance ·  Nov 29 19:05  · Ratings

During the interview that day, Li Bin discussed the original intention of founding NIO with the founder of 180 Science Popularization, Wang Honghao, the person in charge of CarStyling China, and the well-known technology blogger and host of "Random Book Flipping", Pan Luan.

"We raised 18.9 billion US dollars globally and invested it in the development of the intelligent electric vehicle industry in China. We have done many open things in the China auto industry chain; we have made it easy for others to use directly, nurturing many talents, including those trained in our company and those innovated with industry chain partners." On November 26, during the live broadcast of Yiche's deep dialogue program 'Hao Ke', 'NIO's 10th Anniversary: A Conversation with Li Bin', NIO (09866) Founder, Chairman, and CEO Li Bin said.

In the interview that day, Li Bin, founder of 180 Popular Science, and Wang Honghao, the founder of CarStyling china, as well as the well-known technology blogger and founder of "Chaos Book" Pan Luan, discussed the original intention of founding NIO and the next actions that the company should focus on.

When discussing why NIO can still attract global investors during the global capital winter, Li Bin admitted that the key reason investors are willing to invest in NIO is that NIO is financially transparent, which is very important for global investors. At the same time, investors can see that NIO's funds are spent on technology research and development, energy infrastructure, brand building, and more, all of which can be regarded as a form of investment.

"Many people do not understand why we were able to raise 3.3 billion US dollars in Abu Dhabi, and I went there just once to complete the financing, not because I am so strong; my English is not that good. Our financial figures are all public; they know much more than we do, understanding where the money is lost. Let me give a small example: we have cumulatively invested 53 billion yuan in R&D. From the balance sheet perspective, all our R&D expenditures have been expensed, reflected in the current losses, while some companies choose to capitalize them as intangible assets, which means they do not show as much loss in that period. Investors can see the situation of the company through its financials because our finances are very transparent," said Li Bin.

NIO previously released its Q3 2024 financial report on November 20: Q3 sales reached a new high of 0.062 million units, revenue increased to 18.67 billion yuan, and vehicle gross margin continued to rise to 13.1%. R&D expenditures totaled 3.32 billion yuan, and cumulative R&D investment has exceeded 53 billion yuan since 2016. Notably, thanks to achieving positive free cash flow, NIO's cash reserves increased to 42.2 billion yuan. NIO also released its strongest quarterly guidance ever: the Q4 delivery guidance is between 0.072 million and 0.075 million units, a year-on-year increase of 43.9% to 49.9%; the Q4 revenue guidance is between 19.68 billion and 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0% to 19.2%, both guidance figures set a historical high.

Li Bin, the founder, chairman, and CEO of NIO, stated during the earnings call on the evening of the 20th: Starting next year, NIO will enter a new product cycle, and the Lido and Firefly brands will have new products delivered. The entire group will enter a new high-speed growth cycle. "With sales doubling next year, overall operations will continue to achieve positive growth, and losses are expected to narrow next year, with the goal of achieving profitability by 2026."

After the financial report was released, several well-known investment banks gave positive feedback on NIO, including deutsche bank, citigroup, bank of america, morgan stanley, jpmorgan, bank of china international, china international capital corporation, and citic sec, all rating NIO as "buy," "shareholding," or "outperform the industry."

Deutsche bank gave a "buy" rating in its latest report, stating that NIO's third-quarter performance met market expectations, and believes that with the volume of the L60 increasing, the guidance for the fourth quarter can be achieved. Additionally, based on the company's strong new product plan for 2025, the goal of doubling sales in 2025 is expected to be realized. The bank set a target price of 73.80 HKD for the next 12 months.

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Citigroup also gave a "buy" rating with a target price of 8.90 USD. Citigroup expects that, due to the expansion of the number of sales outlets and the continuous laying out of charging and battery swapping infrastructure, the L60 is likely to maintain strong sales momentum after reaching 20,000 monthly sales in March next year. Citigroup anticipates that, driven by the continuous upgrade of operational sales and technology across the three brands, the company's gross margin in 2025 is expected to continue improving.

Citic sec maintained a "buy" rating for NIO's U.S. and Hong Kong stocks, stating in the report that NIO's Q3 performance in 2024 met expectations. Since 2024, NIO has implemented several measures to boost sales. According to the company's performance announcement, it expects Q4 2024 delivery to be between 0.072 million and 0.075 million vehicles, showing a significant improvement in sales. Looking ahead to 2025, L60 plans to release two new SUV products. The "firefly" brand will also be officially launched, continuously bringing good products and battery swapping experiences to lower price segments, which will help expand the company's sales. After the increase in the stock, the efficiency of battery swapping stations is expected to improve, and the company, leveraging the L60 brand, hopes to successfully establish a battery swapping business model. It maintains the "buy" rating for U.S. and Hong Kong stocks.

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China international capital corporation maintained a rating of "outperform the industry" for NIO. They believe that in the third quarter, NIO's automotive business gross margin increased to 13.1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the dual effects of cost reduction in the supply chain and economies of scale, and losses narrowed quarter-on-quarter. The fourth quarter sales guidance is robust, and the overall performance meets expectations. China international capital corporation anticipates that with continued cost reductions, NIO's overall gross margin is likely to steadily rise. The L60 is expected to become a new growth momentum for the company and drive overall operational efficiency improvements, with the company likely to welcome a stronger product cycle in 2025.

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Jpmorgan maintains a 'shareholding' rating on NIO, believing that the management's attitude during the earnings call was optimistic, benefiting from the launch of new models, and expects sales growth to exceed 100% next year. At the same time, as scale effects are realized and incentive measures are reduced, NIO's gross margin and profitability are expected to improve.

On the occasion of the company's tenth anniversary on November 25, Li Bin released an internal letter, urging the team to continuously strengthen bottom-up capability building and focus on improving the operational efficiency of basic business units. Li Bin stated that the next two years are crucial, with the ongoing introduction of competitive new products, continuous improvement of operational efficiency, achieving a doubling of sales next year, and ensuring company profitability by 2026, which are essential tasks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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